83 Responses to “London European Elections”

1. Pete Whitehead

   There is the small matter that Respect are not standing this time. They accounted for more than half the ‘others’ vote last time. Many of their voters may switch to other left parties like No2EU and the Socialist party, but i’m not sure that most will as it was a specific vote for Galloway’s party by certain ethnic minority voters (Respect got about 20% in Newham and Tower Hamlets and I dont see any of these left parties matching that kind of support)

   May 13th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
2. Neil

   I didn’t realise Respect were not standing – is there any reason for that. That does change things – possibly putting Labour in with a shout of a third seat.

   May 13th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
3. Warofdreams

   “I didn’t realise Respect were not standing – is there any reason for that.”

   I think the main reason is that it costs quite a lot of money, and they wouldn’t do very well. Also, some party members want to support No2EU, while others don’t, and standing against that group might have split the party again.

   May 13th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
4. benjamin

   I would imagine that some parties will use the constituency breakdown of the Euros for internal purposes to determine levels of funding for seats or strategy – and if there are any seats where Lib Dems or minor parties do better than expected then you can expect to see bar charts using the Euro results popping up all over the place!

   May 13th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
5. Paul H-J

   With Respect…

   With a choice of No2EU, SPGB and SLP, not to mention Greens, and the various independants, I don’t see much of the old Respect vote reverting to Labour – certainly not enough to compensate for what BNP and above mentioned parties are likely to siphon off Labour.

   As I mentioned a few weeks back, this region has one of the closest matches to the national result, so if Lab come in under 22% here it will be a bad night for them across the country.

   May 13th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
6. lewishamgreen

   While Neil is right to point out an interchange between Lib-Dem and Green voters, there is also an interchange between Labour and Green voters, too. As Neil suggests Labour voters could switch to BNP – in places like Woolwich, Bexley and Barking as we have seen. But does he honestly think that ex-Labour voters – say teachers in Camden or nurses in Islington or local government workers in Lewisham – are going to switch to BNP? Of course not, which is why Greens have done so well in inner London former Labour strongholds and BNP have done so badly.

   May 13th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
7. Gene Alcantara

   We have been trying to solicit some ethnic minority votes in Tower Hamlets for an Independent Candidate, but the word we are getting is that the Imams have already told their followers to vote Conservative. But this was before the expenses scandal.

   May 13th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
8. Neil

   “the word we are getting is that the Imams have already told their followers to vote Conservative”

   That is pretty surprising actually – pleasantly surprising – I was under the impression that the Muslim vote generally went to Labour. Does anyone know of any reason why that might have changed? Or could it just be a reflection of the general mood accross the country?

   May 13th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
9. James Thurston

   NEIL

   ““the word we are getting is that the Imams have already told their followers to vote Conservative”

   That is pretty surprising actually – pleasantly surprising – I was under the impression that the Muslim vote generally went to Labour. Does anyone know of any reason why that might have changed? Or could it just be a reflection of the general mood across the country?”

   If I were you I would most definitely await any official or semi-official claim before getting swept away with an idea that Imams in the still predominantly poor but improving East End of London are instructing their followers to vote Conservative.

   I will freely accept that there are a number of Community Leaders in the East End Muslim population who are confidently advocating Conservative Party politics. However, I firmly suspect that the numbers of such Community Leaders are comparibly very small.

   As I say we should wait for any reliable confirmation of such a development.

   May 17th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
10. LBernard

    Maybe they no longer see Labour as the party for them, as many within the East End, irrespective of race/religion, are now realising. The Tory vote in areas such as Tower Hamlets is growing and some of this growth must come from the local Muslim community, young and old.

    May 19th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
11. Matt

    I wonder if we will get a breakdown of votes per London ward – that would be something Id be very interested in seeing.

    May 19th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
12. Pete Whitehead

    I would love that to be the case (I would like to see that everywhere) but I think the reason these results were avaialbe at ward level in 2004 was because the Mayoral and GLA elections were run on the same day therefore on this occassion we shall have to make do with borough level results

    May 19th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
13. benjamin

    I thought it was all being done by constituency this time?

    May 20th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
14. Mark Mitchell

    Comments on STV above are incorrect. Generally, under STV, parties run one more candidate than they expect to be elected – so in a ten member seat, I would be surprised to see any party running more than five candidates, and the fringe parties would only run one or two candidates. Of course, it does raise the question of why anyone puts so many people on their list. It would make sence under an open list system, but doesn’t here.

    May 29th, 2009 at 1:09 am
15. Martin Curry

    The reason parties list as many candidates as there are vacancies is so that if an MEP dies, is locked up or “does a runner”, the party can replace them with a candidate further down the list. It looks a little bit more democratic than just chosing anyone to fill a vacancy.

    And of course, in the unlikely event that all votes are for one party, it means that 8 MEPs can be elected.

    In STV multi-member it does make sense to nominate one more candidate than you expect to elect, any more and you are in danger of spreading the party vote too thinly with the risk of candidates from other more disciplined parties being elected.

    May 29th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
16. Tim Roll-Pickering

    Of course there’s also the question of just who in each party will actually make the decision about how many candidates to run – some of the overnominations in the last Northern Irish Assembly elections were because of local parties making the decision and/or local/central conflict. If we were to have STV introduced elsewhere I’m not sure parties would immediately nominate rationally.

    May 30th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
17. Frederic Stansfield

    Given recent polls, Labour would appear unlikely to hold onto their third seat.

    It will be interesting to see whether UKIP gain strength in London in line with recent national opinion polls or whether, as the result last time suggests, UKIP’s strength is more in the regions.

    The last couple of places are likely, as always, to be close and unpredictable. But I would guess that the late Green impetus in the polls will be sufficient to keep them their seat, even though this looked unlikely at the start of the campaign.

    There are uncertainities in this seat in relation to the minor parties, not only the BNP but also those to the left of Labour. Bob Crow and Arthur Scargill are both big names who could pick up disillusioned Labour votes from electors who only see their name in the booth. I don’t think it’s likely, but it’s not impossible.

    June 3rd, 2009 at 7:12 pm
18. Andy Stidwill

    I had thought that London would be one of UKIP’s most disappointing regions in the Euro elections. For example there was a by-election in Redbridge a few weeks ago in a ward where UKIP might have done well but they hardly polled any votes at all. After the expenses scandal they may do better than I had thought before.

    June 3rd, 2009 at 7:16 pm
19. benjamin

    Andy – As much as I’d like to count UKIP out, by-elections aren’t necessarily a guide to larger elections (I’m a Lib Dem…I KNOW!) and local councils are not a place where UKIP can make much difference so they get pretty low showings.

    Frederic – Surely if Labour were to get a third seat that would be a gain anyway as their third seat last time was number 9 and there are only 8 seats this time.

    The lefty fringes might pick up votes from people looking for a protest but I don’t know how much impact Scargill or Crow’s names will make – the names of the candidates are very very small!

    Greens will be on track to keep their seat, I think if the most recent polls are accurate – but given what the last week’s polling has shown I’m taking nothing for granted.

    June 3rd, 2009 at 7:21 pm
20. Neil

    Final Prediction:

    Conservatives – 3
    Labour – 2
    Libdems – 1
    UKIP – 1
    Greens – 1

    The final seat will be a scrap between Libdem and Labour, but I can see Labour edging it.

    June 4th, 2009 at 6:40 pm
21. Atiq Malik

    Independent Tamil candidate for London region Jan Jananayagam has a maximum support among Tamils and she has badly damaged Labour vote in London region. She is very hopeful of winning the seat.

    June 5th, 2009 at 3:21 am
22. greenladywell

    It’s certainly true that Tamil voters were out in force in my ward (Ladywell, Lewisham) yesterday and determined to deliver a message via the ballot box. I think Jan Jananayagam will be some way ahead of all the other independent candidates on the London ballot paper, but it’s quite a tall order for her to get the 150,000 or so votes (probably more) that would be needed for her to be elected. Thought her leaflet and website were good though, and wouldn’t under-estimate the ability of the Tamil community to get the vote out in this case.

    June 5th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
23. Pete Whitehead

    “It’s certainly true that Tamil voters were out in force in my ward”

    Makes a change from them clogging up Parliament square and surrounding roads I suppose. It would be utterly absurd if a British seat in the European parliament were to be occupied by the representative of a faction from a sectarian struggle in Asia.

    June 5th, 2009 at 8:06 pm
24. Andy Stidwill

    Sky News are reporting a turnout in the London region of 33.5%.

    June 7th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
25. Andy Stidwill

    It was 37.3% last time.

    June 7th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
26. Neil Turner

    Will Labour drop down to one London MEP???

    June 7th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
27. Andy Stidwill

    Probably not but it might be close.

    June 7th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
28. Warofdreams

    Rather different results to the rest of the country; Labour did relatively well (where being down 3.5% is “relatively well”), losing their third seat, as expected, but easily holding their second. Little progress for the Conservatives, and UKIP fell back, as did the Lib Dems, and the BNP were a long way off winning a seat, but the Greens put in a strong performance.

    June 7th, 2009 at 11:59 pm
29. Pete Whitehead

    London also provided the highest Labour share with the exception of the North East (and not excluding Scotalnd and Wales)

    June 9th, 2009 at 10:12 am
30. Anon

    What a fantastic result for the no 17 Indi! 50k+ votes, 3rd in Harrow, near 4th in Brent. Quite a showing. Who is she and what’s her story?

    June 11th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
31. Andy Stidwill

    She’s a Tamil candidate. A majority of Tamils in London must have voted for her.

    November 14th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
32. Joe James B

    It is strange how in politics some people do become quite rising stars, and you see a lot from them, then they suddenly fade.

    Pauline Green, who gained London North for Labour in 1989, then I think might have been the Labour leader of the MEPs at the time of their 1994 landslide is such an example.

    But after a poor result in 1999, she just dropped out as an MEP I think.
    I remember her predicting another big Labour win in 1999, no doubt not quite realising that governments nearly always suffer in these sorts of contests (unless they are very close to a General), whatever the opinion polls show.

    I was also thinking of Graham Mather, who was an MEP in Hampshire/Oxfordshire from 1994, but may have lost out in the nominations for the lists in 1999?
    He was quite right wing, but also not particularly Euro sceptic – he actually led the European Policy Forum, in the early/ mid 1990s, although I’m not sure what their stance was.

    Another was Imela (Mel) Reid, who was a rather outspoken Labour MEP in the Midlands (I think Nottingham/Leicestershire, but also covering Nuneaton). I remember her on Question Time with John MacGregor.

    December 8th, 2009 at 11:56 pm
33. fidema

    I worked on the campaign in Croydon in the late seventies first european elections(?) Can any one tell me the name of the candidates that stood for the Labour Party in Croydon? I’m sure one of them was called Tony.
    Thank you

    July 6th, 2010 at 9:08 pm