London Assembly Constituencies

Current Member: Brian Coleman (Conservative) born 1961. Barnet councillor since 1998. Has courted controversey by outing Ted Heath and accusing Sir Ian Blair of being drunk at public functions. Member of the London Assembly for Barnet and Camden since 2000. Holds the rotating Chairmanship of the authority along with Lib Dem member Sally Hamwee.

2008 candidates:
Current Member: Brian Coleman (Conservative) see above.
Nicky Gavron (Labour) born 1945, Worcester. Educated at Worcester Girls Grammar School and the Courtauld Institute. Former lecturer. Former Haringey councillor. London Assembly member for Enfield and Haringey 2000-2004, Londonwide list member since 2004. Deputy Mayor of London from 2000-2003. She was selected as Labour’s candidate for Mayor in the 2004 Mayoral election, but stood aside after Ken Livingstone’s readmission to the party. Deputy mayor since 2004.
Miranda Dunn (Green) born Putney. Former actress, now full time political activist and housewife. Contested Barnet and Camden in 2004 and 2000 London Assembly elections. COntested Finchley and Golders Green 2001. Convicted of disorderly conduct in 2007 for breaking through Treasury security cordons to shout “Gordon Bown is a war criminal”, she had previously been arrested for criminal damage to a carpet after throwing a tomato at President Bush.
Nick Russell (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Durham University and Oxford University. Organisation development consultant.
David Stevens (English Democrat) born 1966.
Dave Hoefling (Left List)
Graham Dare (Vertias) Medium and spiritualist healer. Croydon councillor 1998-2002, originally for the Conservative party but defected to the Liberal Democrats 2001. Contested Croydon South 2005 for Veritas.
Clement Adebayo (Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party)
Magnus Nielsen (UKIP) Educated at George Dixons Grammar School and University of London. Tour guide. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2001, GLA elections 2004, Hampstead and Highgate 2005

Current Member: James Cleverly (Conservative) born London. Commercial manager for a magazine publisher. TA officer. Contested Lewisham East 2005 and Lewisham mayoral election. GLA member for Bexley and Bromley since 2008.

2008 Candidates:
James Cleverly (Conservative) see above.
Alex Heslop (Labour) Local government housing officer. Tower Hamlets councillor.
Tom Papworth (Liberal Democrat) Bromley councillor since 2007.
Ann Garrett (Green) born 1942. Educated at Central School of Speech and Drama. Teacher and lecturer. Contested Bexley and Bromley in London assembly elections 2004. Contested Bromley and Chislehurst 2005, 2006 by-election.
John Hemming-Clark (Independents to save Queen Mary’s Hospital) born 1960. Publisher. Contested Bromley and Chislehurst by-election 2006.
Steven Uncles (English Democrat) born 1964. Educated at Chislehurst and Sidcup Grammar School. Interim manager. Contested South East region in 2004 European elections region. Contested Bromley and Chislehurst by-election 2006. Contested South Wales West 2007 Welsh elections.
Miranda Suit (Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party) Founder of Mediamarch. Contested Bexley and Bromley in 2004 GLA election.
Mick Greenhough (UKIP) Contested Orpington 2005.
David Davis (Left List)
Paul Winnett (National Front) Self employed. Contested North Southwark and Bermondsey 2005, Bromley and Chislehurst by-election 2006.

Current Member: Navin Shah (Labour) Leader of the Labour group on Harrow council. First elected as GLA member for Brent and Harrow 2008.

2008 Candidates:
Bob Blackman (Conservative) Brent councillor since 1986, council leader 1991-1994, deputy leader since 2006. Member of the London Assembly for Brent and Harrow 2004-2008. Contested Brent South 1992, Bedford 1997, Brent North 2005. Will contest Harrow East at the next election.
Shahrar Ali (Green) Educated at UCL. Green Party London Policy Coordinator. Contested Brent East 2005. Will contest Brent Central at the next General election.
James Allie (Liberal Democrat) Solicitor. Brent councillor. Contested Brent South 2005.
Arvind Tailor (English Democrat) born 1964.
Pat McManus (Left List) Nurse. Former member of Sinn Fein and Labour.
Sunita Webb (UKIP)
Zena Sherman (Christian Party) Housing support worker and street pastor.

Current Member: John Biggs (Labour) Non practicising lawyer. Former lab technician and systems analyst. Former leader of Tower Hamlets council. London Assembly member for City and East since 2000.

2008 Candidates:
John Biggs (Labour) see above.
Phil Briscoe (Conservative) Runs a public affairs company. Tower Hamlets councillor.
Hanif Abdulmuhit (Respect) Self employed project manager. Newham councillor since 2006
Michael Gavan (Left List) Candidate from the SWP faction of Respect. UNISON branch chair in Newham, currently the focus of industrial action by the union after his dismissal by the council.
Heather Finlay (Green)
Rajonuddin Jalal (Liberal Democrat) Regeneration officer. Tower Hamlets councillor 1990-1998.
Bob Bailey (BNP) Former royal marine. Barking and Dagenham councillor since 2006. Also contesting London list.
John Griffiths (English Democrat) born 1947, London. Former civil servant, now an information officer.
Tom Conquest (Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party) born 1985.
Michael McGough Contested Chingford and Woodford Green 2005.
Graham Kemp (National Front) Contested Feltham and Heston 2005
Julie Crawford (Independent) meat processing worker. Standing for the Communist League.

Current Member: Steve O’Connell (Conservative) born 1956, Dulwich. Educated at Brockley County Grammar. Former bank manager. Croydon councillor since 2002. Deputy leader of Croydon council. GLA member for Croydon and Sutton since 2008

2008 candidates:
Shafi Khan (Labour) born Bangladesh. Educated at Dhaka University with a doctorate from Moscow Civil Engineering University. Maths lecturer. Croydon councillor since 1994.
Steve O’Connell (Conservative) see above
Shasha Khan (Green) Director in a family business and runs a dance music record label. Contested Croydon North 2005. Will contest Croydon North at next election.
Abigail Lock (Liberal Democrat) Sutton councillor. Parliamentary officer for Scope.
Richard Castle (English Democrat) born 1966, Carshalton. Educated at Stanley Park secondary. Train driver. London co-ordinator for Fathers 4 Justice.
David Campanale (Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party) Founding chairman and former President of the CPA. Contested Londonwide list in 2000 and 2004 GLA elections. Former SDP member and Kingston councillor.
David Pickles Sutton councillor, defected from the Conservatives in 2007.
Zana Hussain (Left List)

Current Member: Richard Barnes (Conservative) born Peterborough. Educated at the University of Wales. Hillingdon councillor since 1982. London Assembly member for Ealing and Hillingdon since 2000.

2008 candidates:
Richard Barnes (Conservative) see above
Ranjit Dheer (Labour) Former Chair of Ealing’s Race Equality council. Ealing councillor. Deputy leader of the Labour group on Ealing council.
Nigel Bakhai (Liberal Democrat) born 1971, Shoreham. Educated at Brighton College and the University of Bradford. Equipment Demand Planner for Xerox. Contested Ealing Southall 2005 and 2007 by-election.
Sarah Edwards (Green) Works for Victim Support. Contested Ealing and Hillingdon in 2004 London Assembly election. Contested Ealing Southall 2005.
Sati Chaggar (English Democrat) born Nairobi, 1961. Owns a car repair business. Contested Ealing Southall by-election 2007.
Salvinder Dhillon (Left List) Contested Ealing and Hillingdon in 2004 London Assembly election. Contested Ealing Southall as an Independent in 2001, for Respect in 2007 by-election.
Lynnda Robson (UKIP) Researcher for Gerard Batten
Ian Edward (National Front) Contested Ruislip-Northwood 2005.
Mary Boyle (Christian Party) Radiographer at Hillingdon hospital. Has worked with the Simon Community and COPE foundation.

Current Member: Joanne McCartney (Labour) Barrister. Enfield councillor from 1998-2006. London Assembly member for Enfield and Haringey since 2004.

2008 candidates:
Joanne McCartney (Labour) see above.
Matthew Laban (Conservative) Teacher. Enfield councillor.
Monica Whyte (Liberal Democrat) Barrister. Haringey councillor. Also contested Londonwide list.
Pete McAskie (Green) Green party management co-ordinator. Contested Tottenham 2005.
Teresa Cannon (English Democrat) born 1957. Regional Manager
Segun Johnson (Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party) Pastor at Liberty church London.
Sait Akgul (Left List) former Chairman of the Kurdish Federation UK. Contested Enfield and Haringey & Londonwide list in 2004 London elections.
Brian Hall (UKIP) Cab driver. Contested Brent East by-election 2003, Enfield and Haringey 2004 GLA elections, Enfield Southgate 2005

Current Member: Len Duvall (Labour) Former leader of Greenwich council. Member of the London Assembly for Greenwich and Lewisham since 2000. Chair of the Labour group and the Metropolitan Police Authority. Awarded the OBE in 1998.

2008 candidates:
Len Duvall (Labour) see above.
Andy Jennings (Conservative) Chartered accountant. Greenwich councillor since 2006.
Brian Robson (Liberal Democrat) born Sunderland. Educated at Leeds University. Lewisham councillor since 2006.
Sue Luxton (Green) English teacher. Lewisham councillor. Contested Greenwich and Lewisham in 2004 London elections.
Joanna Munilla (English Democrat) born 1969. Busker.
Chris Flood (Socialist Alternative) Psychiatric nurse.
Steven Hammond (Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party) Ordained lay minister. Works in property finance and management. President of the CPA. Contested GLA elections 2004, West Ham 2005.
Arnold Tarling (UKIP) Accountant. Contested Lewisham East 2005.
Tess Culnane (National Front) Contested 2004 GLA election and European election for the BNP.
Jennifer Jones (Left List)

Current Member: Valerie Shawcross (Labour) Former Croydon councillor (1994-2000) and leader of Croydon council. London Assembly member for Lambeth and Southwark since 2000. Chair of the London Fire and Emergency Planning Authority. Awarded the CBE in 2002.

2008 candidates:
Val Shawcross (Labour) see above.
Shirley Houghton (Conservative) Chartered accountant. Tower Hamlets councillor since 2006.
Caroline Pidgeon (Liberal Democrat) educated at Thornden Secondary and the University of Wales Aberystwyth. Political researcher and communications manager. Southwark councillor since 1998. Deputy leader of Southwark council 2002-2004. Contested Lambeth and Southwark in 2004 GLA elections. Contested Dulwich and West Norwood 2001. Will contest Vauxhall at the next general election. Also contesting Londonwide list.
Shane Collins (Green) Contested Streatham 2005.
Janus Polenceus (English Democrat) born 1983. Educated at St Michael’s Secondary School, Bermondsey. Actor. Contested Vauxhall 2005.
Jens Winton (UKIP) Police communications officer. Contested Lewisham West 2005.
Jasmijn De Boo (Animals Count) Educated at Scholengemeenschap Godelinde, Naarden and Van Hall Institute, Leeuwarden. Education and Training Co-ordinator at the World Society for the Protection for Animals. Leader of Animals Count party
Katt Young (Left List) Manager of a Southall Community Centre.
Daniel Lambert (Socialist Party) Contested Vauxhall 2005
Geoffrey Macharia (Christian Peoples Alliance) Legal representative and chair of HEAL, an HIV, homelessness and immigration charity.

Current Member: Richard Tracey (Conservative) born 1943. Educated at King Edward VI School, Stratford upon Avon and Birmingham University. Journalist. MP for Surbiton 1983-1997. Contested Kingston and Surbiton 1997. GLA member for Merton and Wandsworth since 2008.

Candidates:
Richard Tracey (Conservative) see above.
Leonie Cooper (Labour) Housing association officer. Wandsworth councillor. Contested Hornchurch 1992.
Roy Vickery (Green) Natural history museum curator.
Shas Sheehan (Liberal Democrat) born Lahore, Pakistan. Educated at Rosa Bassett Grammar School and UCL. Former advertising planner. Richmond upon Thames councillor.
Steve Scott (English Democrat)born 1970.
Strachan McDonald (UKIP) Self-employed in the telecoms business. Contested Tooting 2005.
Kris Stewart (Left List)
Ellen Greco (Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party) Special Needs Co-ordinator. Contested GLA elections 2000 and 2004.

Current Member: Roger Evans (Conservative) born 1964, Lancashire. Barrister. Former Waltham Forest councillor and Conservative group leader. Havering councillor since 2006. London Assembly member for Havering and Redbridge since 2000. Deputy leader of the Conservative group.

2008 Candidates:
Roger Evans (Conservative) see above.
Balvinder Saund (Labour) Redbridge councillor.
Farrukh Islam (Liberal Democrat) Chartered accountant. Redbridge councillor.
Ashley Gunstock (Green) Former actor in ITV’s the Bill, now an English teacher. Contested Finchley and Golders Green 1997, Leyton and Wanstead 2001, 2005.
Leo Brookes (English Democrat) born 1949, Tidworth. Civil servant.
Lawrence Webb (UKIP) UKIP London regional organiser. Contested Hornchurch 2005.
Carole Vincent (Left List) born 1954. Former health worker. Contestant in Big Brother 8, finishing fifth.
Paula Warren (Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party) Member of the Christian Party. Runs a business selling festive decorations.
Peter Thorogood (Independent)

Current Member: Tony Arbour (Conservative) born 1945. Educated at Surbiton County Grammar School and Kingston college of Technology. Barrister and former lecturer. Richmond councillor since 1968 and leader of the council from 2002-2006. GLC councillor for Surbiton 1983-1986. London assembly member for South West since 2000.

2008 candidates:
Current Member: Tony Arbour (Conservative) see above.
Stephen Knight (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Oxford and Southampton universities. Liberal Democrat political advisor at London Councils. Richmond councillor since 1998, deputy leader of Richmond council.
Ansuya Sodha (Labour) Contested West Central in 2004 London assembly elections. Barnet councillor.
John Hunt (Green) born Croydon. Educated at Oxford, Essex and Queen May College London. Nurse.
Roger Cooper (English Democrat) born 1945, Hertfordshire. Catering consultant.
Andrew Constantine (Free England) Banker. Contested Newport West in 2007 Welsh elections for the English Democrats. Originally selected as lead candidate in the English Democrat list, but resigned from the party to found the Free England party.
Sue May (Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party) Works for a housing association. CPA deputy mayoral candidate and GLA candidate 2000 and 2004.
Tansy Hoskins (Left List) GLA candidate in 2004.
Peter Dul (UKIP) Claims executive for an indemnity association. Chairman of the Anti-Common Market League. Contested Richmond Park 2005.
Andrew Cripps (National Front)

Current Member: Kit Malthouse (Conservative) born 1966. Former deputy leader of Westminster council. GLA member for West Central since 2008.

Candidates:
Kit Malthouse (Conservative) see above.
Murad Qureshi (Labour) Westminster councillor 1998-2006. Londonwide assembly member since 2004
Merlene Emerson (Liberal Democrat) born Singapore. Educated at Kings College. Former corporate lawyer.
Julia Stephenson (Green) author and journalist. Contested Kensington and Chelsea 2001, 2005. Contested West Central 2004.
Alex Vaughan (English Democrat) born 1974. Educated at North West Kent College. Utilities Safety Manager
Explo Nani-Kofi (Left List)
Abby Dharamsey (Independent) born Tanganyika. Accountant and management consultant, currently operating a mobile estate agency network. Unsuccessfully bid to run the national lottery in 2000. Gaoled for 13 months in 1993 for mortgage deception after the collapse of his Sentana pools company. Contested Regent’s Park and Kensington North 2005.
Paul Wiffen (UKIP)

Current Member: Jennette Arnold (Labour) born Monserrat. List member of the London assembly from 2000, after the resignation of David Lammy. London Assembly member for the North East since 2004.

2008 Candidates:
Jennette Arnold (Labour) see above.
Alexander Ellis (Conservative)
Meral Ece (Liberal Democrat) Hackney councillor 1994-2002. Islington councillor since 2002. Contested Hackey North and Stoke Newington 2001.
Aled Dilwyn Fisher (Green) LSE student.
John Dodds (English Democrat) born 1936.
Maxine Zola Hargreaves (Christian Party)
Nicholas Jones (UKIP)

See here for Londonwide list members and list candidates.

400 Responses to “London Assembly Seats”

« Previous 1 … 4 5 6 7 8 Next »

1. Paul Seery

   Interesting. They must be worried that any increase of the Conservative vote in Richmond could have a negative impact at the next general election for the Liberal Democrats.

   May 1st, 2008 at 8:03 pm
2. Pete Whitehead

   True Blue was correct. Its strange that Boris is expected to be ahead there in the Mayoral vote which means it has switched round compared with 2004 having voted for Livingstone then but Conservative in the constituency section.
   Bob Blackman’s vote and share was up but basically the Lib Dem vote has collapsed – it looks like thorughout London so far – and in Brent that means alot of natural supporters going back to Labour.

   May 2nd, 2008 at 9:50 pm
3. Andy Stidwill

   Well the Tories did reduce Labour’s majority in Enfield & Haringey from 1,574 to 1,402 but it wasn’t enough.

   May 2nd, 2008 at 11:50 pm
4. Joe James Broughton

   Tony Arbour’s majority in SW is nearly 27,000.
   The LDs also polled just 13% in SW on the Mayoral vote – an appalling performance in a division where they have 3 Parliamentary seats!

   The Labour vote on the GLA SW seat was about 30,000 and almost held up – perhaps reflecting the close Mayoral vote.
   Arbour won about 76,000.

   If I’d predicted that I’d be accused of Tory Gloy Plopwell mode!

   May 2nd, 2008 at 11:54 pm
5. Peter Crerar

   I think ethnic candidates standing for the major parties are very popular. Navin Shah in Brent & Harrow was predicted by a blogger on this site and James Cleverly did extreemly well in Bromley & Bexley.

   Had Navin Shah been the Labour candidate in 2004, its very possible that Bob Blackman may not have been elected in the first place.

   May 2nd, 2008 at 11:55 pm
6. David Boothroyd

   Well done JohnLoony for being only one seat out, although the seats came from places you didn’t expect them to come from.

   Overall result:

   Conservatives 8 constituencies + 3 list = 11 (up 2)
   Labour 6 constituencies +2 list = 8 (up 1)
   Liberal Democrats 3 list = 3 (down 2)
   Green Party 2 list = 2 (no change)
   BNP 1 list seat.

   May 3rd, 2008 at 12:50 am
7. Old Harrovian

   I’m not sure the ethnic candidate line works in either example cited.

   Bexley and Bromley would have voted heavily Tory anyway, and James Cleverly is very highly thought of regardless of ethnicity.

   In Brent & Harrow, Navin Shah’s majority over Bob Blackman was smaller than Ken’s over Boris. So running an ethnic candidate might have hurt the Labour vote.

   May 3rd, 2008 at 12:57 am
8. Andy Stidwill

   BNP unfortunately just managed to get a list seat with 5.33%. UKIP collapsed completely.

   May 3rd, 2008 at 1:28 am
9. True Blue

   Lib Dems were not active on the polling day, I visited many poling stations in Brent East (Sarah Teather MP constituency)did not see any tellers,very unusual behaviour of Lib Dems. Bob Could have been defeated by more then 5000 votes, he must thank high profile contest between Boris and Ken that turnout was high.

   Besides Lib Dem did not do well in Brent, even though they have 27 Councillors,one MP,Leader of the Council and 6 Lead members on Brent Council.

   You can not sell war to your voters ( mainly Muslims)Ken being a local is very poular among local BME communities.

   KEN MUST BE NOW LOOKING FORWARD TO CONTEST BRENT CENTRAL AT NEXT GENERAL ELECTION AGAINST SARAH TEATHER MP.

   May 3rd, 2008 at 1:55 am
10. Paul Seery

    Its actually Dawn Butler that is standing against Sarah Teather in Brent Central at the next general election. Not surpised that Bob Blackman lost his seat. At least it will help him focus on trying to win Harrow East at the next general election.

    May 3rd, 2008 at 7:18 am
11. David Boothroyd

    I think you’ll find, Old Harrovian, that Ken Livingstone generally got more than Labour candidates in constituencies, and there’s no indication that Brent and Harrow was especially out of line. If anything the gap was significantly less there than elsewhere.

    May 3rd, 2008 at 9:38 am

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13. True Blue

    I doubt that Bob will be Conservative candidate for Harrow East at next election.

    May 3rd, 2008 at 7:55 pm
14. True Blue

    If Bob remains Conservative candidate for Harrow East Tony McNulty will have an easy walkover him. Tony in private is joking with local conservatives for chosing Bob as their candidate. Bob is not a threat to Tony McNulty.

    May 3rd, 2008 at 7:59 pm
15. Joe James Broughton

    Well you’d have to be a brave man to target Tony McNulty. Not sure anyone would dare.

    May 3rd, 2008 at 8:02 pm
16. True Blue

    IMHO if Conservatives are serious to win this seat they must replace Bob with young person.

    May 3rd, 2008 at 8:10 pm
17. Pete Whitehead

    Presumably Bob Blackman would still have been well ahead within Harrow East’s boundaries. Labour benefited from a collapse in the LD vote in Brent mainly and Bob Blakcmans vote and share was up so it isnt a bad reflection on him. As Paul Seery says he now has more time to focus on fighting Harrow East and I would put him favourite to win.

    May 3rd, 2008 at 8:12 pm
18. Joe James Broughton

    I think I agree with Pete’s analysis. I know I’m biased but the Lib Dems had a pretty atrocious night across London. They took a hammering in my area which if I’d dared to predict they’d call me a Tory Gloy Plopwell.
    Here, in Brent, I think the Lib Dem vote which developed in the area from 2003 onwards has been squeezed and disproportionately helped Labour, as a knock on from the fairly close Mayoral contest.
    I suspect Harrow E is still promising for the Tories.

    May 3rd, 2008 at 8:21 pm
19. Pete Whitehead

    Conseidering some commentators (and not even the partisan ones) were predicting the LDs to gain South West. I think that saw one of the biggest pro-Tory swings and as I expected one of the biggest anti-Ken swings on the Mayoral vote. It was always incongruous that places like Richmond and Kingston were voting for Londons Red Mayor but it looks like theyve turned their back on him decisively.

    May 3rd, 2008 at 8:45 pm
20. Andy Stidwill

    I’m more convinced than ever that Sarah Teather will lose in Brent Central after these results.

    May 3rd, 2008 at 9:57 pm
21. David Boothroyd

    The fall in the Lib Dem vote puts potentially all their London seats in play, with the possible exception of Twickenham.

    May 4th, 2008 at 11:58 am
22. Joseph Brayson

    Has anybody got a vote breakdown of the mayoral and assembly results so I could compare them with Westminster results?

    May 4th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
23. Paul Seery

    Andy, would the loss of Sarah Teather from Parliament be such a bad thing?

    Brent Central is one of the seats at the next general election that I am looking forward to and agree that it would be a shock if Sharah won at the next general election.

    May 4th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
24. True Blue

    Sarah has a personal vote bank, if Conservatives put an outsider then I think Sarah will also get Conservative Vote, She will be neck to neck with Dawn Butler in Mapesbury, Dollis Hill, Dudden Hill, Willesden Green, whereas Dawn Butler will have comfortable lead in Tokyngton, Welsh Harp, Kensal Green, Harlesden and Stonebridge wards.

    Lets see if she can hold on to Muslim voters who switched to her because of Iraq War. In Mayoral and GLA elections 2008 they have returned to Labour.

    Lib Dems on Brent Council will be putting their Candidate against Labour for Mayorship, lets see what happens, my sources have told me that they will be putting a Muslim against Cllr Ralph Fox current Deputy Mayor.

    I have reports that former Mayor Cllr Bertha Joseph is also keen to contest Brent Central, she unsuccessfully tried to get (LABOUR) party nomination for the seat in 2005. She has defected to Conservatives last year. (Spetember 20007)

    Dawn Butler will hold the seat.

    May 4th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
25. True Blue

    Conservatives increased their share of vote in all GLA constituencies they were defending except Brent & Harrow where they only increased their share of Vote by 1.4% whereas Labour share of vote increased by 6.5%:

    Barnet & Camden

    2008 : 40.4%
    2004 : 35.8%

    Bexley & Bromley

    2008 : 52.6%
    2004 : 40.4%

    Brent & Harrow

    2008 : 35.4%
    2004 : 34%

    Croydon & Sutton

    2008 : 43.3%
    2004 : 38.6%

    Ealing & Hillingdon

    2008 : 42.2%
    2004 : 32.4%

    Merton & Wandsworth

    2008 : 43.9%
    2004 : 38.8%

    Havering & Redbridge

    2008 : 47.7%
    2004 : 34.5%

    South West

    2008 : 40.2%
    2004 : 33%

    West Central

    2008 : 52.1%
    2004 : 44.7%

    May 4th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
26. Old Harrovian

    Pete, I’m not sure you’re correct there. The Conservative vote share in Harrow East may have been up, but the Brent share fell, causing the defeat as much as the Lib Dem collapse. Given that Bob Blackman has been a public figure in Brent politics for 20 years, his ability to win the Harrow East seat must now be in question.

    May 4th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
27. Andy Stidwill

    The main thing about Brent and Harrow is that in 2004 a large number of Asian voters had voted Lib Dem because of the Iraq war; they were always likely to go back to Labour in the end. Also a higher turnout in a majority black and asian seat was going to help Labour more than in other areas.

    May 4th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
28. True Blue

    Conservatives in Brent East and Brent South have been completely wiped out in 2006 local elections. At next local elections they will lose Barnhill, Northwick Park wards and will face very tough competition from in Kenton, Preston and Queensbury Wards.

    Bob is Brent politics for 20 years but is not popular among Asians,he is seen as a failure. Under his leadership Brent Conservatives have been pushed to No.3, his wife also lost her council seat to Lib Dem in May 2006.

    May 4th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
29. True Blue

    Conservatives in Brent East and Brent South have been completely wiped out in 2006 local elections. At next local elections they will lose Barnhill, Northwick Park wards and will face very tough competition from Labour in Kenton, Preston and Queensbury Wards.

    Bob is Brent politics for 20 years but is not popular among Asians,he is seen as a failure. Under his leadership Brent Conservatives have been pushed to No.3, his wife also lost her council seat to Lib Dem in May 2006.

    May 4th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
30. Pete Whitehead

    Old Harrovian the Brent share may have fallen – The Conservatives continue to be running up an up-escalator in Brent because of the continued ethnic changes. I havent seen detail of borughs or wards as yet but part of the reason for the rise in the Conservative vote elsewhere was that they gained at the expense of UKIP and to an extent the Lib Dems. IN Brent & Harrow UKIP’s vote was not very high to start with while the Lib Dem vote of 2004 came very largely from Labour defections stemming from the byelection. The same can be seen in other areas eg CIty & East where Labour’s vote rose more than the Tories because they were recovering votes lost in that case to Respect and in that seat there was actually a tecnical swing to Ken Livingstone in the Mayoral election for that reason.

    May 4th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
31. True Blue

    GLA Brent & Harrow 2008 Result

    Labour: 57716 (36.5%)
    Conservative: 56067 (35.4%)
    Lib Dem: 19299 (12.2%)
    Green: 10129 (6.4%)
    CPA: 4180 (2.6%)
    UKIP: 3021 (1.9%)
    Left List: 2287 (1.4%)
    Eng Dem: 2150 (1.4%)
    Majority: 1649 (1.1%)

    2004 Result
    Labour: 35214 (30%)
    Conservative: 39900 (34%)
    Lib Dem: 20782 (17.7%)
    UKIP: 7199 (6.1%)
    Green: 6975 (5.9%)
    CPA: 2734 (2.3%)
    Respect: 4586 (3.9%)
    Majority: 4686 (4%)

    .

    May 4th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
32. NoOffenceAlan

    I think what a lot of people are overlooking is the rise in turnout. A lot of the extra votes for the Conservatives and Labour will have come from people who didn’t vote at all in 2004. It’s not all about switchers from one party to another. The Lib Dem vote even went up, in absolute terms, in some areas.

    May 4th, 2008 at 11:26 pm
33. Joe James Broughton

    I think some of the more optimistic Tory predictions in Brent North may be a bit Tory Gloy Plopwell, but I think True Blue is picking on Bob Blackman a bit re this GLA result, and his prospects in Harrow E.

    As has been noted, I think there has clearly been a net swing back to Labour here, certainly in inner Brent, from the 2003 period.

    May 4th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
34. Richard

    I think Pete meant that the Conservatives are running up a DOWN escaltor in Brent

    May 4th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
35. Pete Whitehead

    Yes ofcourse .. its getting late
    NooffenceAlan makes an improtant point re: the turnout ofcourse. I dont think this is a stinging indictment of Bob Blackman, but im interested in what Trueblue has to say because clearly he has good local knowledge, and he called this rtesult which I didnt see many other people predicting

    May 4th, 2008 at 11:56 pm
36. Joe James Broughton

    I agree – I have to say I did wonder whether True Blue was actually that, but he called the result so something clearly happened here.

    May 5th, 2008 at 12:14 am
37. True Blue

    I also predicted for Tony Lit that he will be luck to get 7000 votes in Ealing Southall by election.

    May 5th, 2008 at 12:24 am
38. True Blue

    My advise to Conservatives is to replace Bob with young local candidate otherwise forget.

    Cllr Alan Mendoza or (Asian) Suella Fernandes she contested Leicester East in 2005 against Keith Vaz MP.

    Cllr Alan Mendoza will be my 1st choice as he is a jew and will get huge support from local jew community.

    He was runner up for Harrow East selection.

    May 5th, 2008 at 12:32 am
39. Joe James Broughton

    True Blue – what is it about Bob Blackman to cut to the point? Is it that he is not popular with the Asian community?

    May 5th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
40. Joseph Brayson

    I think people are forgetting that Bob Blackman is only standing in Harrow East and not in Brent.I think that we need to see a detailed breakdown of how people voted for him in terms of constituency rather than assembly seat before judging his performance.

    May 5th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
41. True Blue

    Joseph,

    Being a local IMHO he cannot win the seat, as Tony McNulty is well known in the area and has high profile He also has huge support among local Tamil Hindus, Muslims and Asian Community. Asians might have voted Conservatives in local elections but at General elections they will vote Labour.

    Kenton West
    Kenton East
    Queensbury
    Edgware
    Harrow Weald
    Wealdstone

    all these ward will produce Labour majority, whereas

    Belmont
    Stanmore Park
    Canons

    will produce Tory majority.

    May 5th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
42. Pete Whitehead

    I think that Harrow Weald, which is perhaps the least Asian dominated ward will vote Conservative and Kenton West will be close. Labour may well carry the majority of wards – say 5 of 9, but the Conservative lead is massive in Stanmore Park and Canons and can easily outvote more modest Labour leads in Queensbury etc

    May 5th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
43. Peter Stewart

    Is there a breakdown of the London elections by ward? And if so, where can it be accessed?

    May 5th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
44. Joe James Broughton

    It should be available because we have had those figures from 2004. I have a spreadsheet of how each ward voted from 2004 in SW division, whilst Pete I think has the whole of London.
    So it does exist, but I’m not sure it’s immediately available. If I find out, I’ll post accordingly.
    It must, of course, be central – probably the GLA will provide it.

    May 5th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
45. Pete Whitehead

    I believe it will take a few weeks. Apparently the Scottish parliament have just published ward figures for the elections of last year

    May 5th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
46. Joe James Broughton

    Thanks – it’ll be very interesting when we get it.
    I’m hopeful that the Tories would have taken all 5 seats in SW division this time.

    When our (Tory) majority was unexpectedly cut in 2004 I had hoped initially that this was a problem confined to the Kingston & Surbiton seat because of the awful 2001 GE result and knock on, whereas Richmond and Twickenham would have confirmed the 2002 success. Unfortunately not – Twickenham already had the writing on the wall.

    May 5th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
47. Peter Stewart

    Thanks JJB, I’ll keep an eye out for it.

    May 6th, 2008 at 10:43 am
48. Joe James Broughton

    I bumped into Tony Arbour on the train this morning, and he thinks it will be available (think from the GLA returning officer) in about 2 weeks…

    We think we might have won every ward in Richmond Borough, although I’m still unsure about a few of them.

    May 6th, 2008 at 10:50 am
49. Joe James Broughton

    He also agreed with what some of us suspect about Brent and Harrow, that some of the votes Labour lost around 2003-2004 to the Lib Dems over the Iraq war have gone back to Labour.

    May 6th, 2008 at 11:29 am
50. Joe James Broughton

    Valerie Shawcross, who is a very good GLA member, also did well with a 24,000 Labour majority.

    May 6th, 2008 at 1:04 pm

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