UKPollingReport Election Guide 2010

maptest

Anthony Wells — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:41:31 +0000

MORI poll puts Ken Livingstone ahead

Anthony Wells — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 16:24:48 +0000

A London voting intention poll by Ipsos MORI for Unison has voting intentions has topline voting intentions of JOHNSON 38%, LIVINGSTONE 41%, PADDICK 12%. Once second preferences are reallocated Ken Livingstone leads by 6% over Johnson. It was conducted between the 23rd and 24th April.

Ipsos MORI also asked a question about whether people were actually registered to vote, though bizarrely the implication in this Guardian article ландшафт

компютриonline casinoколи под наемoffice furniture in Bulgariais that they were still included in the topline figures, since once they were excluded Livingstone’s lead fell to 4% on second preferences.

No other details yet. There should be more mayoral polls from YouGov, mruk, ICM and – possibly – another Ipsos MORI to come before polling day on Thursday. Unless other pollsters also show a Livingstone lead the race is looking close enough to produce a real embarrassment for at least one pollster.

16th March 2007

Anthony Wells — Fri, 16 Mar 2007 15:53:22 +0000

The Ordnance Survey election maps page has now been updated to show the new constituency boundaries in addition to the current ones (or indeed, both on top of each other if you’d like to compare!). Ed Balls has also formally found a berth for the next election, having been selected for the new Morley & Outwood seat in place of the retiring Colin Challen.

I’m having to start moderating comments on seats more and more. The purpose of comments on the site is too allow people to add information and insight to their local seats, or other seats they might have knowledge of. It isn’t a place for partisan arguments, it certainly isn’t a place for campaigning or blindly talking up your candidate’s chances. On the overwhelming majority of pages people are commenting in the correct spirit – only a few seats have descended into party political bickering (bizarrely enough, nearly always Conservative vs Lib Dem marginals) – and the majority of regular commenters have understood the spirit in which the site is intended. There are a few out there making partisan comments under multiple identities…and I’m keeping an eye on you…

At some point prior to the election manual moderation will become an impossible chore and I’ll have to make people register in order to comment to prevent the site descending into a bear pit. I’d like to delay that point for as long as possible

4th February

Anthony Wells — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 09:42:59 +0000

Rallings and Thrasher have released their notional figures for the last election. The figures, contained in the media guide to the new parliamentary constituencies, will be those used by the mainstream media come the next election. There are not precise details on the BBC website, but the net notional changes predicted by Rallings and Thrasher are for the Conservatives to gain 12 seats, Labour to lose 7 and Plaid Cymru to lose one. These are smaller changes than either mine or Martin Baxter’s notional figures – I’ll do a proper comparison of where the predictions differ at a later date.

It’s worth noting that, while the way the country would have looked in 2005 is worse for the Tories on the Rallings and Thrasher figures than the Wells or Baxter figures, overall they are marginally better for the Conservatives. On the Wells notional figures the Conservatives would need a 7.1% swing to gain an overall majority, on the Rallings & Trasher figures they need a 6.9% swing.

(I’ve also been quitely beavering away at adding new candidates as they are selected – new candidates added in Barrow and Furness, Liverpool Riverside & Wavertree, Skipton and Ripon, Sutton and Cheam, Devon North, Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, Chelmsford, Birmingham Ladywood, Hexham along with various other seats)

20th December

Anthony Wells — Wed, 20 Dec 2006 11:07:18 +0000

Jo Crotty selected as Lib Dem candidate in Warrington South, Jill Hope in Milton Keynes North, Mary Varrall in Bexhill & Battle, Leslie Coman in Christchurch.

Caroline Righton selected as Conservative candidate in St Austell and Newquay, Dr David Bull selected in Brighton Pavilion, Kris Hopkins in Keighley.

David Clelland MP has beaten Sharon Hodgson MP to the Labour nomination for the new Gateshead seat. Clelland’s Tynebridge seat disappears at the next election, with most of it going into the Gateshead seat. Sharon Hodgson is currently the MP for Gateshead East and Washington West, which will be split between Gateshead, Washington & Sunderland West and Jarrow at the next election.

Barbara Keeley, the MP for Worley, has beaten Ian Stewart MP for the Labour nomination in the new Worley & Eccles South seat. This leaves Stewart, currently the MP for Eccles (due to be abolished at the next election), to fight it out with Hazel Blears for the nomination in the new Salford & Eccles seat.

13th December

Anthony Wells — Wed, 13 Dec 2006 09:55:45 +0000

A round up of the latest candidate selections –

Liz Leffman selected as Lib Dem candidates in Meon Valley, Alan Beddow in Warwick and Leamington, Tariq Khan in Birmingham Hodge Hill.

Anneliese Dodds was selected as Labour candidates in Reading East and Andrew Pakes inMilton Keynes North.

Mary MacLeod selected as Tory candidate in Brentford & Isleworth, Mike Freer selected in Finchley & Golders Green, Jesse Norman selected in Hereford & South Herefordshire, Chris Philip in Hampstead and Kilburn, Paul Maynard in Blackpool North and Cleveleys, Anne-Marie Trevelyan in Berwick Upon Tweed, Amber Rudd in Hastings and Rye.

7th December

Anthony Wells — Thu, 07 Dec 2006 10:22:51 +0000

Michael Ellis selected as Conservative candidate in Northampton North, Bruce Laughton selected in Gedling.

Two conservative candidates, Paul Offer and Richard Bell, have resigned as candidates for Chester and Westmorland & Lonsdale respectively.

4th December

Anthony Wells — Mon, 04 Dec 2006 13:44:23 +0000

New Lib Dem candidates added are Rosie Sharpley in Woking, Martin Tod in Mark Oaten’s Winchester seat and candidates for all three Newcastle seats: Gareth Kane in Newcastle Central, Stephen Psallidas in Newcastle East and Ron Beadle in Newcastle North.

Richard Graham has been selected as Conservative candidate for Gloucester. There are reports that Richard Bell may have been deselected in Westmoreland and Lonsdale, and there also appears to the possibility of a deselection attempt in Chester.

Finally, a new animal rights political party was launched on Sunday. Animals Count is linked to the Dutch animal rights party which won two seats at their general election and will contest the Welsh Assembly elections next year with a view to contesting elections in England and Wales at a later date.

1st December

Anthony Wells — Fri, 01 Dec 2006 11:09:32 +0000

Paul Scriven selected as Lib Dem candidate for Sheffield Central, James Blanchard selected in Huddersfield, Jane Kulka selected in Reigate.

Travey Crouch selected as Conservative candidate in Chatham & Aylesford, Steve Metcalfe selected in South Basildon & East Thurrock.

24th November

Anthony Wells — Fri, 24 Nov 2006 11:01:22 +0000

New voting intention poll from ICM – CON 37%, LAB 32%, LDEM 22%.

Iain Dale reports that Sandy Toksvig may stand for the Liberal Democrats in the new Conservative/Lib Dem marginal of Meon Valley.

Profile added for West Ham