Ipsos MORI also asked a question about whether people were actually registered to vote, though bizarrely the implication in this Guardian article office furniture in Bulgariais that they were still included in the topline figures, since once they were excluded Livingstone’s lead fell to 4% on second preferences.

No other details yet. There should be more mayoral polls from YouGov, mruk, ICM and - possibly - another Ipsos MORI to come before polling day on Thursday. Unless other pollsters also show a Livingstone lead the race is looking close enough to produce a real embarrassment for at least one pollster.

Boundary changes: loses part of Greenford Broadway ward to Ealing North and parts of Ealing Broadway and Ealing Common to Ealing Central and Acton. As with all by-elections, the forthcoming election will be fought on the OLD boundaries.

Profile: A West London seat in the Borough of Ealing, covering Southall itself, Norwood Green, Dormer’s Wells and part of Hanwell. To the south of the constituency is the Grand Union Canal and Ealing Hospital.
Southall is a residential area dominated by the asian community. Over half the population is from an ethnic minority, overwhelmingly from an asian background, mostly Punjabi. There are significant Hindu and Muslim populations, but the Sikh community is most dominant. Ealing Southall has one of the highest proportions of Sikhs in any constituency in the UK and contains the Sri Guru Singh Sabha Gurdwara, one of the largest Sikh temple’s outside of India. In 2008 the third Sikh faith school in the UK is expected to open in South Norwood in the constituency.

At a Parliamentary level Ealing Southall has been solidly Labour - traditionally the Conservatives were in a distant second place, but in 2005 the Liberal Democrats narrowly overtook them. In 2001 it was one of the few seats where a fringe party candidate outpolled one of the main parties, when Dr Avtar Lit, the Chairman of the asian Sunrise Radio group, achieved third place. Dr Lit’s son, Tony Lit, was the Conservative candidate in the 2007 by-election. Following the death of Piara Khabra, at the time the oldest MP in the Commons, in 2007 Labour successfully held the seat in a by-election.

At a local level the area is divided between Labour and the Conservatives - wards in the west of the seat are solidly Labour and mostly represented by councillors from the Sikh community. The Conservatives are stronger in the leafier Northfield area to the east. Despite the large asian community, Respect only put forward a serious challenge in the Southall Green ward.

Current MP: Virendra Sharma (Labour) born India. Educated at the LSE. Day services manager for people with learning disabilities. Ealing councillor for over 25 years.

2007 By-election

The Ealing Southall by-election was held on the 19th July following the death of Piara Khabra and during Gordon Brown’s honeymoon as Labour leader. The Labour party successfully held the seat with only a 7.5% drop in their vote, with the Liberal Democrats in second place. The Conservatives were for a time expected to do well after selecting Tony Lit, the MD of an Asian radio station whose father had previously performed well as an independent candidate in the seat. Labour faced internal division over their candidate selection and following Virendra Sharma’s selection several Sikh Labour councillors, led by Gurcharan Singh, defected to the Conservative party giving the Tories apparently strong momentum in the early stages of the campaign. The Conservatives focused their resources on the seat, with David Cameron visiting the constituency five times. The Tory campaign faltered though when it was revealed that Lit, who had only recently joined the Conservative party, had attended a Labour party fund-raiser shortly before being selected.

By-election result
Virendra Sharma (Labour): 15188 (41.3%)
Nigel Bakhai (Liberal Democrat): 10118 (27.7%)
Tony Lit (Conservative): 8230 (22.5%)
Green: 1135 (3.1%)
Dhillon (Respect): 588 (1.6%)
KT Rajan (UKIP): 285 (0.8%)
Christian: 280 (0.8%)
Rai (Independent): 275 (0.8%)
John Cartright (Loony): 188 (0.5%)
Sati Chaggar (English Democrat): 152 (0.4%)
Independent: 92 (0.3%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Majority: 5070 (13.8%)

By-election Candidates:
Nigel Bakhai (Liberal Democrat) born 1971, Shoreham. Educated at Brighton College and the University of Bradford. Equipment Demand Planner for Xerox. Contested Ealing Southall 2005.
John Cartwright (Official Monster Raving Loony) born 1968. Educated at Trinity School and Royal Holloway College. Perennial candidate in Croydon local elections and by-elections. Contested Bromley & Chislehurst by-election 2006, Croydon Central 2005, 2001. OMRLP shadow minister for chocolate.
Sati Chaggar (English Democrats)
Salvinder Dhillon (Respect) Contested Ealing and Hillingdon in 2004 London Assembly election. Contested Ealing Southall as an Independent in 2001.
Sarah Edwards (Green) Works for Victim Support. Contested Ealing and Hillingdon in 2004 London Assembly election. Contested Ealing Southall 2005.
Kuldeep Grewal (Independent) a disillusioned Labour member who stood against the offical candidate because of an “internal grievance”, on the 9th July Grewal urged his supporters to back the Labour candidate.
Tony Lit (Conservative) Former Moss Bros manager and, since 2003 Managing Director of Sunrise Radio, the Asian radio station founded by his father Avtar Lit. Ambassador for the 2012 London Olympic bid.
Yaqub Masih (Christian Party) General Secretary of UK Asian Christian Fellowship, presenter on Sunrise radio.
Jasdev Rai (Independent) Director of the Sikh Human Rights Group
Kunnathur Rajan (UKIP) born India. Retired consultant physician. Member of Cardiff Community Health Council. Contested Rhonnda in 2003 Welsh Assembly elections. South Wales Central Region in 2007 Welsh Assembly Elections. Contested Bridgend 2005.
Virendra Sharma (Labour) born India. Educated at the LSE. Day services manager for people with learning disabilities. Ealing councillor for over 25 years.
Gulbash Singh (Independent) local GP and former Conservative borough candidate, Singh endorsed the Conservative candidate on the 9th July.

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I’m having to start moderating comments on seats more and more. The purpose of comments on the site is too allow people to add information and insight to their local seats, or other seats they might have knowledge of. It isn’t a place for partisan arguments, it certainly isn’t a place for campaigning or blindly talking up your candidate’s chances. On the overwhelming majority of pages people are commenting in the correct spirit - only a few seats have descended into party political bickering (bizarrely enough, nearly always Conservative vs Lib Dem marginals) - and the majority of regular commenters have understood the spirit in which the site is intended. There are a few out there making partisan comments under multiple identities…and I’m keeping an eye on you…

At some point prior to the election manual moderation will become an impossible chore and I’ll have to make people register in order to comment to prevent the site descending into a bear pit. I’d like to delay that point for as long as possible

It’s worth noting that, while the way the country would have looked in 2005 is worse for the Tories on the Rallings and Thrasher figures than the Wells or Baxter figures, overall they are marginally better for the Conservatives. On the Wells notional figures the Conservatives would need a 7.1% swing to gain an overall majority, on the Rallings & Trasher figures they need a 6.9% swing.

(I’ve also been quitely beavering away at adding new candidates as they are selected - new candidates added in Barrow and Furness, Liverpool Riverside & Wavertree, Skipton and Ripon, Sutton and Cheam, Devon North, Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, Chelmsford, Birmingham Ladywood, Hexham along with various other seats)

Caroline Righton selected as Conservative candidate in St Austell and Newquay, Dr David Bull selected in Brighton Pavilion, Kris Hopkins in Keighley.

David Clelland MP has beaten Sharon Hodgson MP to the Labour nomination for the new Gateshead seat. Clelland’s Tynebridge seat disappears at the next election, with most of it going into the Gateshead seat. Sharon Hodgson is currently the MP for Gateshead East and Washington West, which will be split between Gateshead, Washington & Sunderland West and Jarrow at the next election.

Barbara Keeley, the MP for Worley, has beaten Ian Stewart MP for the Labour nomination in the new Worley & Eccles South seat. This leaves Stewart, currently the MP for Eccles (due to be abolished at the next election), to fight it out with Hazel Blears for the nomination in the new Salford & Eccles seat.

Liz Leffman selected as Lib Dem candidates in Meon Valley, Alan Beddow in Warwick and Leamington, Tariq Khan in Birmingham Hodge Hill.

Anneliese Dodds was selected as Labour candidates in Reading East and Andrew Pakes inMilton Keynes North.

Mary MacLeod selected as Tory candidate in Brentford & Isleworth, Mike Freer selected in Finchley & Golders Green, Jesse Norman selected in Hereford & South Herefordshire, Chris Philip in Hampstead and Kilburn, Paul Maynard in Blackpool North and Cleveleys, Anne-Marie Trevelyan in Berwick Upon Tweed, Amber Rudd in Hastings and Rye.

Two conservative candidates, Paul Offer and Richard Bell, have resigned as candidates for Chester and Westmorland & Lonsdale respectively.

Richard Graham has been selected as Conservative candidate for Gloucester. There are reports that Richard Bell may have been deselected in Westmoreland and Lonsdale, and there also appears to the possibility of a deselection attempt in Chester.

Finally, a new animal rights political party was launched on Sunday. Animals Count is linked to the Dutch animal rights party which won two seats at their general election and will contest the Welsh Assembly elections next year with a view to contesting elections in England and Wales at a later date.

Travey Crouch selected as Conservative candidate in Chatham & Aylesford, Steve Metcalfe selected in South Basildon & East Thurrock.

Iain Dale reports that Sandy Toksvig may stand for the Liberal Democrats in the new Conservative/Lib Dem marginal of Meon Valley.

Profile added for West Ham