East of England Euros
The London European region covers Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire. It currently returns 7 members of the European Parliament. In 2004 the region returned 3 Conservative MEPs, 2 UKIP MEPs, 1 Lib Dems MEP and 1 Labour MEP.
Sitting MEPs and 2004 Results
| 1. |  |
Geoffrey van Orden (Conservative) | 465,526 (30.8%) | |
| 2. |  |
Jeffrey Titford (UKIP) | 296,160 (19.6%) | (Will step down at next election) |
| 3. |  |
Richard Howitt (Labour) | 244,929 (16.2%) | |
| 4. |  |
Robert Sturdy (Conservative) | (232,763) | |
| 5. |  |
Andrew Duff (Lib Dem) | 211,378 (14.0%) | |
| 6. | |
Christopher Beazley (Conservative) | (155,176) | (Will stand down at the next election) |
| 7. | |
Tom Wise (Independent) | (148,080) | (Originally elected as UKIP) |
| -. | Martin Bell (Independent) | 93,028 (6.2%) | ||
| -. | Green | 84,068 (5.6%) | ||
| -. | BNP | 65,557 (4.3%) | ||
| -. | English Democrats | 26,807 (1.8%) | ||
| -. | Respect | 13,904 (0.9%) | ||
| -. | Jim Naisbitt (Independent) | 5,137 (0.3%) | ||
| -. | Pro Life | 3,730 (0.3%) |
2009 Candidates
| 1. | Richard Howitt. Sitting MEP. Born 1961 Reading. Educated at Oxford University. Harlow councllor 1985-1995. Contested Billericay 1987. MEP for Essex South 1994, for East of England since 1999. |
| 2. |  Beth Kelly. Education consultant and former Maths teacher. Contested Hertsmere 1997. |
| 3. |  Nigel Gardner. Former BBC journalist and chairman of a public affairs company. Contested Suffolk Coastal 2001, Lichfield 2005. |
| 4. |  Sherma Batson. Hertfordshire county councillor. Stevenage councillor. Awarded the MBE in 2008 for services to local government. |
| 5. |  James Valentine. Educated at Manchester Grammar and Durham University. Contested Mid Bedfordshire 2001. |
| 6. |  Katie Curtis. NUS National women’s officer. |
| 7. |  Chris Ostrowski. Educated at University of East Anglia in Norwich. Works in retail and e-commerce. |
| 1. | Geoffrey Van Orden Sitting MEP. Born 1945, Waterlooville. Former Brigadier in the Intelligence Corps. MEP for the East of England since 1999. |
| 2. | Robert Sturdy Sitting MEP. Born 1944, Wetherby. Educated at Ashville College, Harrogate. Former farmer. MEP for Cambridge and Bedfordshire North 1994-1999, East of England since 1999. |
| 3. |  Vicky Ford Born 1967. Educated at Cambridge University. Contested Birmingham Northfield 2005. |
| 4. |  John Flack. Educated at Abbs Cross High School. Director of a property investment company. Contested London 1999 European electon and Northumbria 1994 European election. Contested Enfield Southgate 2001. |
| 5. |  Jonathan Morgan. Born Suffolk. Architect. Contested East of England 2004 European elections. |
| 6. |  Claire Strong. |
| 7. |  Claire Whelan. Former director of the Tory Reform Group. Lambeth councillor. |
| 1. | Andrew Duff Sitting MEP. Born 1950, Birkenhead. Educated at Cambridge University. Cambridge councillor 1982-1990. MEP for East of England since 1999. Awarded the OBE for services to politics 1997. |
| 2. |  Linda Jack Born Luton. Policy advisor at the FSA and former teacher. Former councillor. Contested Luton North 2005. |
| 3. |  Ian Mack Born Ilford. Educated at Buckhurst Hill County High and Royal Free Hospital School of Medicine. GP. West Norfolk councillor since 2007. Contested Norfolk North West 2001, South Norfolk 2005. |
| 4. |  Peter Welch Auditor. Will contest Southend West at the next election. |
| 5. |  Earnshaw Palmer Born 1958, Sierra Leone. Accounts manager at the LGA. Thurrock councillor 2002-2004. Contested East of England in 2004 European elections. |
| 6. |  Andrew Houseley Born Felixstowe. Educated at Lancaster University. Human resources consultant and specialist travel book publisher. Contested Suffolk Central and Ipswich North 2005. |
| 7. |  Qurban Hussain Educated at Bedford College and Luton University. Luton councillor since 2003. Contested Luton South 2005. |
| 1. |  David Campbell Bannerman Educated at Edinburgh University. Communications director and former special advisor to Sir Patrick mayhew. Tunbridge Wells councillor 1992-1996. Contested Glasgow Rutherglen 1997, Warwick and Leamington Spa 2001 as a Conservative, North Cornwall 2005 for UKIP. Contested Highlands and Islands in 2007 Scottish elections. Contested UKIP leadership election in 2006, deputy leader of UKIP since 2006. Will contest Suffolk South at next election. |
| 2. |  Stuart Agnew Educated at Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester. Farmer. Contested Mid Norfolk 2001, Norfolk North 2005.Will contest Broadland at next election. |
| 3. |  Andrew Smith Chartered accountant. Will contest Epping Forest at next election. |
| 4. |  Stuart Gulleford Political advisor and former Vice Chairman of Brentwood Chamber of Commerce. Contested Brentwood and Ongar 2005. Will contest Brentwood and Ongar at next election. |
| 5. |  Amy O’Boyle |
| 6. |  Mick McGough Contested Chingford and Woodford Green 2005. Contested Londonwide list in 2008. |
| 7. |  Michael Baker North Norfolk councillor. |
| 1. |  Rupert Read Reader in Philosophy at East Anglia University. Norwich councillor. |
| 2. |  Peter Lynn Professor of Survey Methodology at Essex University. Will contest Colchester at next election. |
| 3. |  James Abbott Born 1960. Educated at UCL. Runs a gardening business. Braintree councillor since 1999. Contested Braintree 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005. Contested Essex North and Suffolk South 1994 European elections. Will contest Witham at next election. |
| 4. | Marc Scheimann Educated at St Columba’s College. Computer consultant. Former councillor. Contested Luton South 2005. |
| 5. |  Angela Thomson Chartered librarian. |
| 6. |  Andrew Stringer Mid-Suffolk councillor. |
| 7. |  Amy Drayson Student at Ipswich University. |
| 1. |  Eddy Butler Educated at University of London. BNP national elections officer. |
| 2. |  Emma Colgate Thurrock councillor. Contested Basildon 2005. |
| 3. |  Stephen McCole Educated at Enfield Grammar School. |
| 4. |  David Fleming Former Cynon Borough councillor. |
| 5. |  David Lucas Educated at Chadacre Agricultural College. Runs a farming and engineering business |
| 6. |  Mark Fuller Born Barnet. Educated at Middlesex University. Former lecturer. |
| 7. |  Seamus Dunne Three Rivers councillor. |
| 1. |  Robin Tilbrook Solicitor. Founder and chairman of the English Democrats. |
| 2. Charles Vickers | 3. John Cooper |
| 4. Raymond Brown | 5. Adrian Key |
| 6. Nicholas Capp | 7. Patrick Harris |
| 1. |  Robin Page Born 1943, Barton. Educated at Cambridgeshire High School. Farmer, journalist and former presenter of One Man and His Dog. South Cambridgeshire District Councillor as an Independent 1972-2006. Contested Bethnal Green and Bow 1979 as a Conservative, South Cambridgeshire 1997 for the Referendum Party, Winchester by-election 1997, South Cambridgeshire 2005 for UKIP. |
| 2. |  Peter Cole Office manager. |
| 3. |  Bruce Lawson Chartered accountant and tax advisor. Contested Wrekin 2005 for UKIP. |
| 4. |  John West Born 1967, Edmonton. Works for Suffolk Council Library service.. |
| 5. | Len Baynes |
| 1. |  Andrew Armes Self employed consultant. |
| 2. |  Ian Tyes Solicitor, formerly ran a computer networking business. |
| 3. |  Stephen Garton Head of sales for a housebuilding company. |
| 4. |  Jules Sherrington Born 1953, London. Inventor and administrator in an alternative therapy business. |
| 5. |  Andrew Parker Educated at UEA. Corporate communications producer. |
| 6. |  Michael Yates Born Wales. Self employed IT provider. |
| 1. | James Dry Contested Hertsmere 2001, 2005. |
| 2. Patricia Bowen | 3. Paul Hardman |
| 4. Martha Page-Harries | 5. Jacob Bowen |
| 6. Miriam Scale | 7. Andrew Jordan |
| 1. | Jeremy Tyrrell |
| 2. Kim Christofi | 3. John Jackson |
| 4. Grace Oghenegare | 5. Albert Usikaro |
| 6. Douglas Suckling | 7. Sally Craig |
| 1. |  Andrew Jamieson Born Thornham. Investment banker and farmer. |
| 2. Peter Mason | 3. John Dowdale |
| 4. Carol de Chair | 5. Henry Burton |
| 6. John Harmer | 7. Peter Robbins |
| 1. |  Brian Denny Editor of the RMT journal. |
| 2. Frank Jepson | 3. Steve Glennon |
| 4. Phil Katz | 5. Eleanor Donne |
| 6. Pete Relph | 7. Ron Rodwell |
| 1. |  Jasmijn de Boo Educated at Scholengemeenschap Godelinde, Naarden, Van Hall Institute, Leeuwarden, and Edinburgh University, Scotland. Programme Advisor (Causal Research) at the Brooke Hospital for Animals, London. Leader of Animals Count party. Contested Lambeth and Southwark 2008 London elections. |
| 2. |  Alexander Bourke Author |
| 3. |  Richard Deboo |
There is also one independent candidate:
Peter Rigby. Contested Hitchen and Harpenden 2001 as Independent.
NB - Candidates lists are provisional, based on candidates declared before the campaign. They will be updated to reflect the final list of candidates as soon as possible following the close of nominations.
David Campbell Bannerman is perhaps UKIP’s third most likely MEP.
I think UKIP will retain one seat here. The BNP have pockets of strength in south Essex and parts of Herts but precious little in more rural East Anglia. The Greens are even more limited in their areas of strength to primarily Norwich and to a lesser extent certain other towns of that ilk like Cambridge and Colchester. UKIP’s vote is unlikely to fall to the extent that they would lose both seats I expect them to go down one and the Conservatives to be the beneficiary. I know nothing of vicky Ford – the other two incumbents are archetypal Tory Euro MEPs – some relics of the the old Chris Patten type Eurofanatic German poodles who characterised the whole of the group of so-called Conservative MEPS (those that havent already joined the LIberal Democrats)
Pete
I think you are confusing the two sitting MEPs who remain with teh one who is retiring.
Christopher Beazley certainly fits the caricature you paint, but Geoffery and Robert are both sturdy (pun intended) in their criticism of Euro-federalism. The exclusion of Mr Beazley from the ballot paper will probably help eat into the UKIP vote.
Worth mentioning here that the Con candidates were elected in a primary ballot last year – and we were obliged to vote separately from lists of men / women for the places below the sitting members.
Both Vicky Ford and John Flack should get elected, a bit too far for Jonathan Morgan. The other three seats will go one each to Lab, LD and UKIP (in that order).
I don’t believe UKIP will do as badly as some commentators seem to expect. They may hold pretty much all of their 16% share from last time, maybe down 2-3%. (I’m talking about the whole country here not just the East of England.)
Andy – I fear a large increase in the BNP vote, which I believe will reduce the national UKIP vote to about 9 or 10%, and also affect the Labour share in some regions, but the Toey share in others. I predict the BNP may gain 6 or 7 seats, and UKIP aboout 8 or 9.
Jamie,
While there may be an increase in the BNP vote, what makes you think this will come from UKIP ?
Most of the BNP support will come from former Labour voters among the white working class in places like Basildon, Harlow, Luton, Stevenage, and Thurrock. It will certainly not be enough to get close to a seat in this region, but it may, by virtue of eating into the Labour vote, allow UKIP to keep an MEP despite a lower vote.
If the UKIP share declines, it will be because their support in 2004 has returned to its natural home – hence the more eurosceptic Tory line-up matters. I think that Campbell-Bannerman may be elected here, but he will be alone. Nationally, 6 or 7 is more realsitic than 8-9.
Anything more than 2-3 BNP MEPs is fanciful, and nil is far more likely.
Paul my impression of Robert Sturdy was formed when he was the MEP for Cambridgeshire and I lived in that area in the runup to the 1999 elections and as an activist of the party who heard him speak at some regional conference. I’m sure you are better acquinted with him than me and perhaps my comments from last night were a bit too strongly worded but I would still maintain that these Tory MEPs are not sufficiently Eurosceptic for my tastes.
I agree with your arguments about where the BNP vote will come from. It seems to suit some of those on the left to imagine that UKIp and BNP voters are interchangeable but they are mistaken. I think Nick Griffin is very likley, but not certain, to be elected in the North West while their next ebst hopes are in regions where they may struggle due to the relatively low number of seats (Yorks, East and West Midlands) and that they will not have enough support in any of the southern regions to win a seat.
Pete,
Almost by definition existing Tory MEPs will be insufficiently eurosceptic for your tastes – after all you moved to UKIP, they have not !
My view of Robert Sturdy and Geoffrey Van Orden is formed from their regular newsletters / bulletins to members in the region. (Likewise my view of Christopher Beazley). While they could hardly be described as champions for withdrawing from the EU, they come across as realistic about the challenge we face in controlling the slide towards a centralised “federation”. The same could not be said of Mr Beazley, who has shown his true colours by resigning the whip and continuing to sit with the EPP.
Re BNP – of course those on the left like to pretend BNP and UKIP are interchangeable. They simply cannot accept that the BNP are a left-wing party.
Will have a look at NW region in detail, but, while it is perhaps the likeliest prospect for a BNP MEP, I don’t think they will get there.
“Almost by definition existing Tory MEPs will be insufficiently eurosceptic for your tastes – after all you moved to UKIP, they have not !”
Quite – I almost added some words similar to this after my own comments, but then again I can argue the old defectors line that the party left me rather than vice versa. I would also add that while I did ‘move to UKIP’ in the sense of joining that party a while after David Cameron became leader, this was for reasons not primarily connected to Europe and I had voted for UKIP in the previous two European elections while I was a member of the Conservative party – in other words Tory MEPs were – almost all – insuffiecently Eurosceptic for my tastes even when I was a Tory (even to the extent I had to spoil my ballot paper in 1989). I mentioned on the SE thread that Daniel Hannan was a Tory MEP one could happily vote for and i’m sure there are others in other regions, which means if the STV system you argued in favour of elsewhere were in force one could imagine spreading one’s votes between various Conservative and UKIP candidates. But I dont see any Tory candidate on the list in this region that I would vote for in that scenario (admittedly I know nothing of nos. 3-6 – Clare Whelan is obviously damned by her TRG background)
Pete,
Re Clare Whelan, why should TRG membership alone damn her ? Being Euro-sceptical is not incompatible with the one-nation conservative tradition espoused by the TRG – though I grant you they do not often go hand-in-hand.
More generally, surely it is to be expected that anyone putting themself forward to join the Strasbourg gravy train is more likely to be in favour of the EU ideal than desirous of pulling down the entire edifice ? Equally, it is not susrprising that sitting MEPs may “go-native”.
If it were not for the closed list approach, we as electors could make a difference by giving our preferences to those who were not sitting MEPs. As it is, I can tell you that in the internal ballot, Vicky Ford probably gained by coming across as being more euro-sceptic than Clare Whelan. Fortunate really, since if Clare had received more votes than Vicky in the female part of the ballot (a sexist device if ever there were one) she would have been third on the list and almost certain to be elected – as opposed to her current position which is meaningless unless at least three of the names above either die or resign in the next five years.
What is the United Kingdom First Party?
As far as I’m aware they are a splinter goup of UKIP, opposed to Nigel Farage’s leadership.
Here I’d go for at least three Conservatives, one Labour, one Lib Dem, one UKIP and the last seat probably a fourth Conservative, although the Greens and the BNP both have an outside chance.
Incidentally, it’s probably not the place to start a debate [It's not, no - see my comment to Neil below - AW]
My guess would be 4 Conservative; 1 Labour; 1 UKIP; 1 Libdem – but the BNP could run us very close for our 4th seat.
[Snipped...Sorry Neil, that's a topic of conversation we don't do here. Long years of experience tell me it is guaranteed to devolve into a "You're more like the BNP", "No you're more like the BNP", "You are", "No you are" sort of argument - AW]
I think both the Greens and the BNP are very long shots for the 7th seat. If Martin Bell is standing again (is he?) then it is almost certain to be a 4th Conservative. If he does not stand then enough of his vote may transfer to Labour to give them a second seat.
Labour, UKIP and the Lib Dems would all get a second seat before the Greens or BNP got one here. Furthermore, I would bet on the Tories taking a 5th one before either of them too. If there were 12 seats then the Greens and BNP would be in the running for the 12th.
Anthony,
Do you think we could have a special thread, or group of threads, for partisan comment, since you only allow WoD’s side of the BNP argument on the main threads.
Neil -
I’m expecting the Labour, UKIP and Lib Dem votes all to fall – it’s possible (although a stretch) to think that they might all end up on around 12%, and it’s quite likely that the BNP could make 7%; the Greens might also be able to if both Labour and the Lib Dems suffer.
The Conservative vote should go up, but much over 35% (which they’d need to a have a fifth candidate ahead of a party on 7%) would be a very good result. If the UKIP vote goes every which way and a substantial portion doesn’t turn out, then the Conservatives might not get over four times the BNP or even Green tally – but, as I say, that’s very much an outside chance.
I think that Labour would be even luckier to get a second seat, unless they improve in the polls significantly by polling day, and I just don’t see UKIP holding enough of their vote to get two MEPs elected.
I agree that Labour; Libdem and UKIP will all see their votes drop numerically, but on a lower turnout I think that in %age terms, the Libdems will not drop by much, or possibly even rise. Both the Greens and the BNP would struggle to get 7%, while the Conservatives should manage 35% in my view.
Conservative – 35.3%
UKIP – 16.2%
Labour – 15.7%
Libdems – 14.3%
BNP – 6.6%
Greens – 5.5%
I think that is realistic.
Neil, of course – that’s what UKBlindassertionsReport.co.uk is for!
I would be surprised if the BNP vote only rises by 2%. It’s quite possible that a lot of voters who were voted for Kilroy-Silk because of the fact that he was well known rather than because he was in UKIP in 2004 could vote BNP this time. I say that because my assessment at least was that a lot of people voting for Kilroy-Silk were what I would call “none-of-the-above” voters, and these are the sort of voters who would find the BNP an attractive proposition this time.
Neil
I would agree the order and your figures for share of vote are about right +/- 2%.
That would give C 4, and one each for UKIP, Lab and LD.
I see that Tom Wise may find himself in court shortly, so he won’t be standing again. Doubt it will have much effect on UKIP vote – but if it does, it could put their seat in jeopardy.
I understand that Martin Bell will not be standing this time round. I suspect this will benefit Labour and the Libdems – although I don’t think his entire vote will be split between them. Whatever you think of Martin Bell (and who doesn’t) he was a fairly charismatic character and probably drew votes from most sectors of the political spectrum.
Martin Bell has said he will probably back one of the parties after close of Nominations.
Would that party be the Green party by any chance? I dont believe it will make very much difference at all. It is fairly pompous of Martin Bell to endorse a party as if he has some great following who will vote along the lines he suggests. Clearly a significant number of people did vote for him last time, but they would have been from various parts of the spectrum and supported him as an Independent. In as much as such an endorsement would have any impact it would be good news for UKIP and for the Conservatives because such voters who thereby vote Green will do so at the expense of Labour and the Liberal Democrats, while there is no prospect of the Greens achieving anything close to the number of votes required to win a seat in this region.
I don’t think that endorsement by an Independent ex-MP will shift many votes to the party receiving his (or her) support, although perhaps every little helps.
At £5000 deposit paid to the Electoral Commission to stand for election as an MEP GB and NI must be the most expensive in Europe yet sitting MEP’s from Britain will now get paid the same as former Eastern Block countries where MEPs can stand for a fraction of the deposit required in Britain. “All men are equal but some men are more equal than others” Appears that there is no longer room for Individuals to run for election unless rich. Do Lost deposits from minor parties and individuals fund this European election?.
THE INDIVIDUALS LABOUR AND TORY PARTY (TILT)
I see that the UK First list is being filled out , which suggests that Robin Page will be putting up more than a token campaign.
Still no Libertas candidates here ? Surely not long left before they need to formally lodge a list.
Initially, I would have said there would be a close contest for 2nd-4th with UKIP, Lab and LD all around the 12-15% mark, leaving result as Con 4, UKIP 1, LD 1, Lab 1 (probably in that order).
But with UKF bound to take some UKIP votes, not to mention Eng Dem and Libertas (if they stand), we could see UKIP fall below 10%. This raises the interesting question as to how high Cons need to rise in order to pick up a fifth seat ?
If Cons get above 40%, with Lab and LD each around 13-15%, it could be quite a scuffle for that last seat – but, no, that is not likely to let the BNP in, even though they are increasing the number of County council candidates in this region.
And UKIP’s vote would have to fall below 8% in that case for the Tories to take the fifth seat
I don’t think the BNP have enough support in the rural districts which make up a significant proportion of this region to win a seat unless their national share is closer to 15% than 10%.
Candiates of the new No 2 Euro Yes to Democracy as announced on their website.
Eastern – Seven candidates
Brian Denny – Journalist and democracy campaigner
Frank Jepson – Visteon factory convener, Basildon
Steve Glennon – shop steward at GSK in Ware, Hertfordshire
Phil Katz – Author and designer
Eleanor Donne – UNISON steward (pc), local government worker
Pete Relph – Environmental campaigner
Ron Rodwell – Former CWU activist RMT staff rep
Updated to reflect official candidate list
http://www.huntsdc.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/8204458A-7953-43EA-AC2C-9DDBE8836BB6/0/epe_eastern_region__statement_of_individual_candidates_nominated.pdf
I see my second cousin is still first up on the Labour List here.
Nice to know the family does have some achievers….!
Don’t bet on him keeping his seat!
Actually he probably will, but could be scrapping for it.
4 Conservatives, 1 Libdem, 1 UKIP, 1 Labour here I would say – it is conceivable that the Conservatives could get a bit over 40% here.
I know this is one region the Lib Dems are openly campaigning to “make it 2″
I think it’s pretty unlikely they’ll win 2 seats. They may be able to hold their share of the vote steady from 2004 because inevitably some of the people who voted for Kilroy-Silk would have previously been LD voters.
Unless the population of Derbyshire has upped sticks and moved to the East of England region I really rather doubt Kilroys voters will help us
I think the campaign is mostly based on the increases we have seen in places like Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire since 2004, the weakness of Labour and the 6% up for grabs due to the absence of Martin Bell.
92 candidates from 13 parties + 1 independent. Could prove an interesting count.
This is one of 3 regions where I think Tories could break 40% (others are SE & SW).
Also think this is a region where LDs are likely to come second, even if they don’t manage a significant improvement on their 2004 vote. As Benjamin says, a chunk of Martin Bell’s votes could boost LDs here and put them above 15-16%, while both UKIP and Lab will fall compared to 2004.
For LDs to get a second seat (as opposed to second place) would however require either a score near 20% or a collapse in both Lab and UKIP. Not impossible, but not that likely either.
That’s only 14 “piles” of ballot papers though, as you can’t vote for individual candidates.
What are the “increases we have seen in.. Hertfordshire since 2004″ ?
The only area I can think of is St Albans (at least in terms of Lib Dem councillors) – Lib Dems were already strong in Watford then, and that doesn’t seem to have changed.
The Libdems’ chances of getting 2 seats here are negligible.
I wanted to look in a bit more detail at the increased LD vote in “places like Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire” since 2004
Broxbourne 2004 4.6% 2008 2.0% -2.6%
East Herts 2003 23.2% 2007 19.0% -4.2%
North Herts 2004 26.9% 2008 19.4% -7.5%
Stevenage 2004 27.8% 2008 16.8% -11.0%
Welwyn Hatfield 2004 24.1% 2008 20.9% -3.2%
St Albans 2004 38.2% 2008 34.3% -3.9%
Hertsmere 2004 19.3% 2008 10.3% -9.0%
Dacorum 2003 24.2% 2007 20.9% -3.3%
Three Rivers 2004 45.5% 2008 44.7% -0.8%
Watford 2004 44.5% 2008 44.7% +0.2%
maybe he just meant Cambridgeshire really.. lets see
Cambridge 2004 37.6% 2008 32.8% -4.8%
E Cambs 2003 37.9% 2007 35.1% -2.8%
S Cambs 2004 34.9% 2008 30.4% -4.5%
Huntingdon 2004 32.6% 2008 29.9% -2.7%
Peterborough 2004 11.8% 2008 9.1% -2.7%
Fenland 2003 4.8% 2007 22.1% +17.3%
hmm.. maybe not. Perhaps he meant places ‘like’ Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire as opposed to Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire themselves. Or perhaps he meant to say ‘the increases we have seen in Fenland’ (the difference is explained by the party contesting 8 of 11 contested wards in 2007 as against 3 of 16 in 2003).
Incidentally much was made of the LDs ‘winning’ Watford at the last European elections. I invite you to consider the following and consider how well the LDs compare with other parties when it comes to translating local election support to European elections (held on the same day)
2004
Watford Borough
LD 44.5%
Con 25.9%
Lab 19.1%
Grn 10.5%
European election (Eastern region)
LD 25.8%
Con 22.7%
Lab 19.0%
Grn 7.0%
I predict for this region
Con 38%
Lab 16%
LD 16%
UKIP 13%
BNP 9%
Grn 6%
seats resulting from this Con 4 Lab 1 LD 1 UKIP 1
No realistic chance of a second seat for LD or Labour (or UKIP for that matter) IMO. BNP has a very slim chance of taking final (4th Con) seat but I think not.
You are not displaying a photograph of me as a UKIP candidate on the Eastern Region list. I am number 3. You can either get a picture from our website at http://www.ukip.org/easterncouties or I will email one to you if you tell me where to address it
Many thanks
Please advise where I can email a photograph as there is not one of me on your site. It is not vanity which leads to the offer, simply a feeling your readers might want to see it.
You a particularly good looking chap Andrew?
I do agree though, we should get as many candidate photographs on here as possible.
It is difficult to say the least to make concrete predictions at this stage, but it doesnt seem at all impossible now for UKIP to hold onto both seats – opinion polls indicate they could surge past Labour and the LDs and the Conservatives are losing ground. UKFP is a slight irritant but dont expect them to poll very much
Pete,
If the order on the Ballot paper is as per the statement of nominations, then I suspect that UKFP will probably sneak more than a handful of votes off UKIP.
When the poor voter has unravelled the ballot paper and got past the first dozen entries to find UK First, they may breateh a sigh of reief and stick there cross there rather than carry on to the next box.
You can’t even advocate the simple solution of pointing people to the last entry – or Mr Rigby may suddenly find himself with an unusual change in his circumstances.
Having said that, I think UKIP could hang on to second place – if they do, they may even hang on to their second seat, but I think most likely result is still Con 4; UKIP 1; LD 1; Lab 1.
Just got my postal ballot today, the ballot paper is quite large! Slightly narrower than an A4 page and just under twice as long. It’s alphabetical as on the statement of nominations so UKF is 13th on the page, just before UKIP at 14 and poor Peter Edward Rigby on his own at the bottom.
I wonder if there would be any confusion between Socialist Labour and Labour on the ballot paper though.
My prediction: 3 Con, 1 Lab, 1 LD with the final 2 seats a tossup between the 4th Con, 2nd LD and first 2 UKIPs.
No one seems to have mentioned the Peterborough area in their consideration of the Eastern region. This is important because it is large, (population wise), covered in UKIP billboards, and with a Conservative Council that many do not like; (i.e. they would vote UKIP or BNP as opposed to Conservative). In this area the right side vote was very strong last time and can only be stronger this. This would in my opinion more than offset the Green vote in Norwich and Cambridge. This might make the region very tight overall with teh seven seats.