East of England Euros
The London European region covers Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire. It currently returns 7 members of the European Parliament. In 2004 the region returned 3 Conservative MEPs, 2 UKIP MEPs, 1 Lib Dems MEP and 1 Labour MEP.
Sitting MEPs and 2004 Results
| 1. |  |
Geoffrey van Orden (Conservative) | 465,526 (30.8%) | |
| 2. |  |
Jeffrey Titford (UKIP) | 296,160 (19.6%) | (Will step down at next election) |
| 3. |  |
Richard Howitt (Labour) | 244,929 (16.2%) | |
| 4. |  |
Robert Sturdy (Conservative) | (232,763) | |
| 5. |  |
Andrew Duff (Lib Dem) | 211,378 (14.0%) | |
| 6. | |
Christopher Beazley (Conservative) | (155,176) | (Will stand down at the next election) |
| 7. | |
Tom Wise (Independent) | (148,080) | (Originally elected as UKIP) |
| -. | Martin Bell (Independent) | 93,028 (6.2%) | ||
| -. | Green | 84,068 (5.6%) | ||
| -. | BNP | 65,557 (4.3%) | ||
| -. | English Democrats | 26,807 (1.8%) | ||
| -. | Respect | 13,904 (0.9%) | ||
| -. | Jim Naisbitt (Independent) | 5,137 (0.3%) | ||
| -. | Pro Life | 3,730 (0.3%) |
2009 Candidates
| 1. | Richard Howitt. Sitting MEP. Born 1961 Reading. Educated at Oxford University. Harlow councllor 1985-1995. Contested Billericay 1987. MEP for Essex South 1994, for East of England since 1999. |
| 2. |  Beth Kelly. Education consultant and former Maths teacher. Contested Hertsmere 1997. |
| 3. |  Nigel Gardner. Former BBC journalist and chairman of a public affairs company. Contested Suffolk Coastal 2001, Lichfield 2005. |
| 4. |  Sherma Batson. Hertfordshire county councillor. Stevenage councillor. Awarded the MBE in 2008 for services to local government. |
| 5. |  James Valentine. Educated at Manchester Grammar and Durham University. Contested Mid Bedfordshire 2001. |
| 6. |  Katie Curtis. NUS National women’s officer. |
| 7. |  Chris Ostrowski. Educated at University of East Anglia in Norwich. Works in retail and e-commerce. |
| 1. | Geoffrey Van Orden Sitting MEP. Born 1945, Waterlooville. Former Brigadier in the Intelligence Corps. MEP for the East of England since 1999. |
| 2. | Robert Sturdy Sitting MEP. Born 1944, Wetherby. Educated at Ashville College, Harrogate. Former farmer. MEP for Cambridge and Bedfordshire North 1994-1999, East of England since 1999. |
| 3. |  Vicky Ford Born 1967. Educated at Cambridge University. Contested Birmingham Northfield 2005. |
| 4. |  John Flack. Educated at Abbs Cross High School. Director of a property investment company. Contested London 1999 European electon and Northumbria 1994 European election. Contested Enfield Southgate 2001. |
| 5. |  Jonathan Morgan. Born Suffolk. Architect. Contested East of England 2004 European elections. |
| 6. |  Claire Strong. |
| 7. |  Claire Whelan. Former director of the Tory Reform Group. Lambeth councillor. |
| 1. | Andrew Duff Sitting MEP. Born 1950, Birkenhead. Educated at Cambridge University. Cambridge councillor 1982-1990. MEP for East of England since 1999. Awarded the OBE for services to politics 1997. |
| 2. |  Linda Jack Born Luton. Policy advisor at the FSA and former teacher. Former councillor. Contested Luton North 2005. |
| 3. |  Ian Mack Born Ilford. Educated at Buckhurst Hill County High and Royal Free Hospital School of Medicine. GP. West Norfolk councillor since 2007. Contested Norfolk North West 2001, South Norfolk 2005. |
| 4. |  Peter Welch Auditor. Will contest Southend West at the next election. |
| 5. |  Earnshaw Palmer Born 1958, Sierra Leone. Accounts manager at the LGA. Thurrock councillor 2002-2004. Contested East of England in 2004 European elections. |
| 6. |  Andrew Houseley Born Felixstowe. Educated at Lancaster University. Human resources consultant and specialist travel book publisher. Contested Suffolk Central and Ipswich North 2005. |
| 7. |  Qurban Hussain Educated at Bedford College and Luton University. Luton councillor since 2003. Contested Luton South 2005. |
| 1. |  David Campbell Bannerman Educated at Edinburgh University. Communications director and former special advisor to Sir Patrick mayhew. Tunbridge Wells councillor 1992-1996. Contested Glasgow Rutherglen 1997, Warwick and Leamington Spa 2001 as a Conservative, North Cornwall 2005 for UKIP. Contested Highlands and Islands in 2007 Scottish elections. Contested UKIP leadership election in 2006, deputy leader of UKIP since 2006. Will contest Suffolk South at next election. |
| 2. |  Stuart Agnew Educated at Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester. Farmer. Contested Mid Norfolk 2001, Norfolk North 2005.Will contest Broadland at next election. |
| 3. |  Andrew Smith Chartered accountant. Will contest Epping Forest at next election. |
| 4. |  Stuart Gulleford Political advisor and former Vice Chairman of Brentwood Chamber of Commerce. Contested Brentwood and Ongar 2005. Will contest Brentwood and Ongar at next election. |
| 5. |  Amy O’Boyle |
| 6. |  Mick McGough Contested Chingford and Woodford Green 2005. Contested Londonwide list in 2008. |
| 7. |  Michael Baker North Norfolk councillor. |
| 1. |  Rupert Read Reader in Philosophy at East Anglia University. Norwich councillor. |
| 2. |  Peter Lynn Professor of Survey Methodology at Essex University. Will contest Colchester at next election. |
| 3. |  James Abbott Born 1960. Educated at UCL. Runs a gardening business. Braintree councillor since 1999. Contested Braintree 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005. Contested Essex North and Suffolk South 1994 European elections. Will contest Witham at next election. |
| 4. | Marc Scheimann Educated at St Columba’s College. Computer consultant. Former councillor. Contested Luton South 2005. |
| 5. |  Angela Thomson Chartered librarian. |
| 6. |  Andrew Stringer Mid-Suffolk councillor. |
| 7. |  Amy Drayson Student at Ipswich University. |
| 1. |  Eddy Butler Educated at University of London. BNP national elections officer. |
| 2. |  Emma Colgate Thurrock councillor. Contested Basildon 2005. |
| 3. |  Stephen McCole Educated at Enfield Grammar School. |
| 4. |  David Fleming Former Cynon Borough councillor. |
| 5. |  David Lucas Educated at Chadacre Agricultural College. Runs a farming and engineering business |
| 6. |  Mark Fuller Born Barnet. Educated at Middlesex University. Former lecturer. |
| 7. |  Seamus Dunne Three Rivers councillor. |
| 1. |  Robin Tilbrook Solicitor. Founder and chairman of the English Democrats. |
| 2. Charles Vickers | 3. John Cooper |
| 4. Raymond Brown | 5. Adrian Key |
| 6. Nicholas Capp | 7. Patrick Harris |
| 1. |  Robin Page Born 1943, Barton. Educated at Cambridgeshire High School. Farmer, journalist and former presenter of One Man and His Dog. South Cambridgeshire District Councillor as an Independent 1972-2006. Contested Bethnal Green and Bow 1979 as a Conservative, South Cambridgeshire 1997 for the Referendum Party, Winchester by-election 1997, South Cambridgeshire 2005 for UKIP. |
| 2. |  Peter Cole Office manager. |
| 3. |  Bruce Lawson Chartered accountant and tax advisor. Contested Wrekin 2005 for UKIP. |
| 4. |  John West Born 1967, Edmonton. Works for Suffolk Council Library service.. |
| 5. | Len Baynes |
| 1. |  Andrew Armes Self employed consultant. |
| 2. |  Ian Tyes Solicitor, formerly ran a computer networking business. |
| 3. |  Stephen Garton Head of sales for a housebuilding company. |
| 4. |  Jules Sherrington Born 1953, London. Inventor and administrator in an alternative therapy business. |
| 5. |  Andrew Parker Educated at UEA. Corporate communications producer. |
| 6. |  Michael Yates Born Wales. Self employed IT provider. |
| 1. | James Dry Contested Hertsmere 2001, 2005. |
| 2. Patricia Bowen | 3. Paul Hardman |
| 4. Martha Page-Harries | 5. Jacob Bowen |
| 6. Miriam Scale | 7. Andrew Jordan |
| 1. | Jeremy Tyrrell |
| 2. Kim Christofi | 3. John Jackson |
| 4. Grace Oghenegare | 5. Albert Usikaro |
| 6. Douglas Suckling | 7. Sally Craig |
| 1. |  Andrew Jamieson Born Thornham. Investment banker and farmer. |
| 2. Peter Mason | 3. John Dowdale |
| 4. Carol de Chair | 5. Henry Burton |
| 6. John Harmer | 7. Peter Robbins |
| 1. |  Brian Denny Editor of the RMT journal. |
| 2. Frank Jepson | 3. Steve Glennon |
| 4. Phil Katz | 5. Eleanor Donne |
| 6. Pete Relph | 7. Ron Rodwell |
| 1. |  Jasmijn de Boo Educated at Scholengemeenschap Godelinde, Naarden, Van Hall Institute, Leeuwarden, and Edinburgh University, Scotland. Programme Advisor (Causal Research) at the Brooke Hospital for Animals, London. Leader of Animals Count party. Contested Lambeth and Southwark 2008 London elections. |
| 2. |  Alexander Bourke Author |
| 3. |  Richard Deboo |
There is also one independent candidate:
Peter Rigby. Contested Hitchen and Harpenden 2001 as Independent.
NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide
Peterborough is one of relatively few areas in this region which will not be having county council elections on the same day which means that turnout will be realtively lower (the other areas are Luton, Thurrock and Southend).
In any case it is not so large to be very significant in itself. While perhaps one in forty electors in this region are in Peterborough, it may well be that only one in every fifty votes is cast there
I’ll be interested to see how much lower the turnout is in areas where only the Euro elections are taking place compared to places where local elections are also taking place, and also whether the difference maybe results in a party winning or losing a seat as a result.
I think the difference could be as much as 10%. The change since 2004 is more marked because then Peterborough was one of relatively few areas in this region which did have local elections ont he same day so turnout was slightly higher than the regional average. It is clear from the kind of areas which will not have local elections that the effect will be detrimental to Labour. This is even mroe true in a region like Yorkshire or the West Midlands. It would also be slightly detrimental to the BNP in those regions and could make the difference between them winnign a seat and not (ie lower turnout in Sandwell, Stoke, Dudley, Kirklees and Calderdale relative to Shropshire, or North Yorkshire). It will correspondingly marginally assisst the Conservatives, UKIP and the LDs. In a very close result for the last seat in these regions it could certainly be a factor which makes the difference.
This regions includes Essex doesn’t it?
I ask because AW has included the Essex constituencies under the South-East region.
it certainly does and his map shows Essex included but the seats are listed under the South East as you say
The sense I get around the Peterborough area is that solid voters (of whatever party) will turn out, therefore the more solid the vote the more solid the representation. I would not regard the labour vote as solid at the present time. Pete also makes the (effective) assumption that people would vote the same way in Local elections as the EU….I am not so sure.
Isn’t AW from Dartford?
Perhaps there’s some sinister revanchist undercurrent there
Martin I dont assume that people will vote the same way in local elections and European elections. While there will naturally be plenty of people who vote across normal party lines for both electins, in the European elections there is far wider choice than in most CC seats and there will be significant split ticke voting with people voting (for example) for their Conservative CC candidate and for UKIP in the European election (or LD-Green or whatever). The point i was making related to turnout in that where there are local elections more people are likley to come out to vote than in areas where there are just European elections. This does mean that if there were local elections in somewhere like Wigan a somewhat larger number of core Labour voters would be coming out to vote in the locals and would vote in the Euro poll while theyre at it, with a majority probably sticking with Labour in that election, but in the absence of the local election they may just stay at home.
“Perhaps there’s some sinister revanchist undercurrent there ”
You’re assuming we’d want it
Essex is in this region, but for some unknown reason I put it in the South East when splitting up seats into regions. It was so long ago now I’ve forgotten what on earth possessed me to do such a thing.
Southend often comes up with East Kent for things like weather forecasts.
At the eve of poll, it looks likely that there will be no change in this constituency. Labour will get a drubbing, but their one MEP was well above quota last time.
Whilst there is a late swing to the Greens, the small size of this seat compared to the South East makes it look likely that they will fall a bit short of quota.
The big shock would be if the Greens took the Labour seat. Not very likely, but just possible. And it would be a sensation.
Final Prediction:
Conservatives – 3
UKIP – 2
Libdems – 1
Labour – 1
Greens and BNP will be neck and neck here – but both will be quite some distance away from a seat.
I hope you’re right – I still incline to 4-1-1-1 here but the last seat will be close here between Conservatives and UKIP (with BNP and Greens not that far behind I guess)
Cousin of cogload to survive the collapse in the Labour vote then…?
I look forward to the results.
I’d predict C3-UKIP2-Lab1-LD1 as well – it seems that the ongoing expenses scandal may have curbed the chances of a 4th Conservative seat – not enough for Labour to lose their seat though. No success for greens/bnp here (but I think Griffin is now likely to win a seat in the North West)
Also – prediction for the order of MEPs returned:
1 – Conservative 1 (Geoffrey Van Orden)
2 – UKIP 1 (David Campbell Bannerman)
3 – Lib Dem 1 (Andrew Duff)
4 – Conservative 2 (Robert Sturdy)
5 – Labour 1 (Richard Howitt)
6 – Conservative 3 (Victoria Ford)
7 – UKIP 2 (John Stewart Agnew)
Labour may well finish fourth here.
My order was the same, except that Conservative(2) gets the 3rd seat, and Libdems get the 4th.
I predict a Green seat here.
Looking at the local election results earlier, Greens gained some new representation in the region.
I would not be surprised to see them take a seat.
Luke I do hope so. I voted Green in both County and European elections. The first time I’ve been able to vote Green twice on one polling day. We didn’t do too badly 6% considering this is the first time since I’ve been able to vote we’ve had a Green candidate for County and given what a safe Tory ward it is. Thanks to Labour’s implosion we didn’t come last either although it is disappointing to get less votes than the BNP and the English Democrats.
Bizarre result in Eastern region with no change for C, UKIP, LD.
The Lib Dems have overtaken Labour in the poll, but no change here – Con 3; UKIP 2; LibDem 1; Lab 1. The Greens came within 10,000 votes of taking the second UKIP seat, the BNP did less well than they would have hoped and were well behind the Greens.
I was puzzled by people who thought the BNP might have a chance in this region because they simply don’t attract many votes in counties like Norfolk and Suffolk.
Yes it was never on the cards IMO. I suppose people thought of BNP strength in south Essex and parts of Herts but East Anglia is in general poor ground. The Greens posed a far greater threat of a political extremist being elected from this region and its a great relief that they failed and pleasing indeed that UKIP kept two seats which was not expected by many.
UKIP – 2 seats. It was always a banker in a very rural seat. Sheep do vote.
The pleasing result is LDs beating Lab with Lab only just beating the Greens into 4th.
The recent defection of DCB from UKIP to the Tories is very intriguing. Does the Tories and DCB know something the rest of us don’t re Conservative EU policy as one finds it odd that a UKIP politician are defecting TO the Tories as opposed to the other way round. Could there be a secret deal regarding a possible EU referendum?