East Midlands Euros
The East Midlands European region covers Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, Rutland and post-1974 Lincolnshire. In 2004 it elected 6 MEPs using the d’Hondt method, but under the Treaty of Nice it will lose a seat at the next election, returning only 5 MEPs. This means the Liberal Democrats notionally lose a seat in this region, though they would regain it on the smallest of swings from any of the other parties.
In 2004 the region returned 2 Conservatives, 2 UKIP, 1 Labour and 1 Liberal Democrat. It was contested by the former television presenter Robert Kilroy-Silk, with the result that UKIP were almost able to top the poll and gained seats from Labour and the Conservatives. Kilroy-Silk subsequently left UKIP to found his own short-lived Veritas party and now sits as an Independent. It is unclear whether he will contest the seat at the next European elections.
Sitting MEPs and 2004 Results
| 1. |  |
Roger Helmer (Conservative) | 371,362 (26.4%) | |
| 2. |  |
Robert Kilroy-Silk (Independent) | 366,498 (26.1%) | (Originally elected as UKIP) |
| 3. |  |
Glenis Wilmot (Labour) | 294,198 (21.0%) | (Replaced Philip Whitehead in 2005) |
| 4. |  |
Chris Heaton-Harris (Conservative) | (185,681) | (Will stand down at next election) |
| 5. |  |
Derek Clark (UKIP) | (183,249) | |
| 6. |  |
Bill Newton Dunn (Lib Dem) | 181,964 (12.9%) | |
| -. | BNP | 91,860 (6.5%) | ||
| -. | Green | 76,633 (5.5%) | ||
| -. | Respect | 20,009 (1.4%) | ||
| -. | Russell Rogers (Independent) | 2,615 (0.2%) | ||
| -. | S. Halliday (Independent) | 847 (0.1%) |
2009 Candidates
| 1. | Glenis Willmott. Sitting MEP. Born 1951, County Durham. Former medical scientist, assistant to Alan Meale and trade union officer. Nottinghamshire county councillor 1989-1993. MEP for the East Midlands since 2006, suceeding upon the death of Phillip Whitehead. |
| 2. |  Roy Kennedy. Former director of Finance for the Labour party. |
| 3. |  Kathryn Salt. Former Amber Valley councillor. Awarded the MBE for charity work. |
| 4. |  J David Morgan. Born 1960, Keresley. Educated at Sheffield University. Law tutor. Former Northamptonshire county councillor. Contested Blaby 2001, 2005. |
| 5. |  Cate Taylor. Educated at Oxford University. Solicitor. |
| 1. | Roger Helmer. Sitting MEP. Born 1944, London. Educated at King Edward VI Grammar School, Southampton and Cambridge University. Businessman. MEP for the East Midlands since 1999. An outspoken right-winger, opponent of British membership of the EU and sceptic of climate change, he had the party whip suspended in 2005 for voting against party lines, it was restored in 2006 though he remains outside the EPP-ED group. |
| 2. |  Emma McClarkin. Born Stroud. Educated at Stroud Girls High School and Bournemouth University. Government relations executive for the Rugby Football Union. |
| 3. |  Rupert Matthews. Born 1961. Freelance author and historian. Contested Bootle 1997. |
| 4. |  Fiona Bulmer. Born 1967. Educated at Samual Whitbread Upper School and Bristol University. Corporate communications consultant. Barnet councillor. Contested Normanton 1997. |
| 5. |  George Lee. Former Rossendale councillor. Contested Rossendale and Darwen 2001, Leeds North West 2005 |
| 1. | Bill Newton Dunn. Born 1941, Hampshire. Educated at Marlborough College and the Sorbonne. Conservative MEP for Lincolnshire 1979-1994. Conservative MEP for East Midlands from 1999, he defected to the Liberal Democrats in 1999. |
| 2. |  Ed Maxfield. Born 1967, Owersby. Educated at De Aston School and East Anglia University. Former business consultant, now working for a disability rights charity. |
| 3. |  Denise Hawksworth. Born Liverpool. Office manager for Paul Holmes MP. Chesterfield councillor since 2003. Contested Bolsover 2005. Will contest Bolsover at the next election. |
| 4. |  Deborah Newton-Cook. Assistant to Diana Wallis MEP. Contested East Midlands 2004 European election, Derbyshire South 2005. |
| 5. |  David Perkins. Northampton councillor. |
| 1. | Derek Clark. Sitting MEP. Born 1933, Bristol. Retired teacher. Contested Northampton South 2001, 2005. First elected as MEP for the East Midlands in 2004. |
| 2. |  Christopher Pain. Contested Louth & Horncastle 2005. Will contest Boston and Skegness at next election. |
| 3. |  Stephen Allison. born 1960, Hartlepool. Educated at Hartlepool Grammar and London University. Management consultant. Independent Hartlepool councillor from 2002, joined UKIP 2004. Contested Hartlepool by-election 2004. |
| 4. |  Deva Kumarasiri. Born Sri Lanka. Postmaster, transferred from a Nottingham Post Office in 2009 after refusing to serve customers who didn’t speak English. |
| 5. | Irenea Marriot. Spiritualist who claimed in 2005 she had recieved “communication for higher realms” that Blair would not win the election. Contested Nottingham North 2005. |
| 1. |  Sue Mallender. Teacher. Rushcliffe councillor since 2003. Contested East Midlands 1999, 2004 European Elections. |
| 2. |  Richard Mallender. Rushcliffe councillor since 2007, former Brighton councillor. |
| 3. |  Ashley Baxter. Director the Energy Saving Trust advice centre. Contested Rushcliffe 2001, Nottingham East 2005. |
| 4. | Matthew Follett. Contested Leicester South 2005. |
| 5. |  Barney Smith. Educated at Sibford School and Liverpool University. Town planner. Contested Birmingham Selly Oak 2005, 2001. |
| 1. |  Robert West.Former lecturer who has set up his own church in Holbeach. Former South Holland District councillor, elected as a Conservative but defected to the BNP in 2006. |
| 2. |  Cathy Duffy.Born 1958, Malaysia. Charnwood councillor. |
| 3. |  Peter Jarvis.Born Leicester. Educated at London University. Former teacher, now working in industry |
| 4. |  Lewis Allsebrook.Amber Valley councillor. |
| 5. |  Kevan Stafford.Educated at De Montford University. Retired architect. |
| 1. | John McEwan Lindsey oil refinery worker and shop steward |
| 2. |  Avtar Sadiq Vice-President of the Indian Workers’ Association (GB) |
| 3. | Jean Thorpe Member of UNISON executive |
| 4. | Shang Gahonia |
| 5. | Laurence Platt UNITE branch secretary |
| 1. |  David Roberts Community centre manager. Contested Leicester South 1983 for the Workers Party, Leicester West 1997, Leicester South 2001, Leicester South by-election 2004 for the Socialist Labour Party. |
| 2. | Paul Liversuch Former miner and NUM official. Contested Derbyshire South 2001 |
| 3. | Shaun Kirkpatrick Contested Leicester West 2001. |
| 4. | Michael Clifford |
| 5. | Thea Roberts |
| 1. |  Richard Elvin Born Lincolnshire. Educated at Newcastle University. Tour operator and former teacher. |
| 2. |  Margot Parker Consultant on European directives and regulations. |
| 3. |  Peter Chaplin Runs an engineering machine manufacturing company. |
| 4. | James Daniels. |
| 5. | William Winter. |
| 1. | Ian Gillman Born 1952. Educated at Central London Polytechnic. Photographer. Contested Corby 1997, 2001, 2005 for UKIP. |
| 2. | Christopher Elliot |
| 3. | Nadine Platt |
| 4. |  David Noakes Computer consultant. Contested Truro and St Austell in 2005 for UKIP. Unsuccessfully contested UKIP leadership in 2006. |
| 5. | Mariann French |
| 1. |  Suzanne Nti. Church pastor. |
| 2. Tom Rogers | 3. Tim Webb |
| 4. Colin Bricher | 5. Doreen Scrimshaw |
| 1. |  Derek Hilling. |
| 2. Tony Ellis | 3. Diane Bilgrami |
| 4. David Ball | 5. Anthony Edwards |
| 1. |  James Lowey Educated at Gedling School. Works in a cafe. |
| 2. |  Simon Flude Businessman |
| 3. | James Parker Caseworker assistant for a human right charity. |
| 4. | Henry Blanchard Physics student at Nottingham University. |
| 5. | Perry Wilsher Born 1958, Nottingham. Educated at William Sharp Comprehensive. Founded a business selling anti-graffitti paint, sold last year. |
NB - Candidates lists are provisional, based on candidates declared before the campaign. They will be updated to reflect the final list of candidates as soon as possible following the close of nominations.
Is Robert Kilroy-Silk standing again. It is likely he would hold on if he did, as Margo MacDonald twice retained her Holyrood seat in the Lothians without any party machine.
Kilroy Silk seems to have gone completely silent, no idea if he will try again. It’s more likely the other former UKIP MEPs, Ashley Mote and Tom Wise, will try to run under some other flag – they both have websites up proclaiming themselves as “[X region]‘s only Independent MEP!”
> It is likely he would hold on if he did, as Margo MacDonald twice retained her Holyrood seat in the Lothians without any party machine.
CS: Surely there is big difference between RKS and Margo?
> Kilroy Silk seems to have gone completely silent
CS: And there it is – Margo certainly has never been quiet since she’s been elected.
Peter,
If Kilroy-Silk did stand (as Veritas or Independent), the main effect will be to ensure that neither he nor UKIP retained a seat.
Despite the reduction in seats this is one region where both Con and Lab could each gain a seat.
(i.e Con 3, Lab 2 – others nil)
What with the anti-EU side split (UKIP, English Democrats, BNP, Libertas & Kilroy, as well as some home grown East Midlands weirdos) – Paul could be right. The Pro-EU parties (Tory, Labour & Lib-Dem) could come out on top as the anti-EU votes will be so badly split. Though I doubt if Bill will lose his seat
Eric,
Bill Newton Dunn may well hang on, but he needs to ensure that LDs maintain at least one third of Con share and get ahead of UKIP.
While the former may appear easy (he had just under half last time), the latter should not be taken for granted.
A 2:2:1 result is most probable, but that is more likely to be Con 2; Lab 2; UKIP 1 than Con 2; Lab 2; LD 1.
Also, Con 2; Lab 1; UKIP 1; LD 1 is a reasonable possibility.
2 errors -
You have 3 and 5 on the BNP list the wrong way around
And you have the BNP vote share and Greens the wrong way around in your 2004 result
Are UKIP short on East Midlanders? Hartlepool Birmingham London whats all that about.
Matthew Follett Green Part is also a Leicester City Councillor
The two Conservatives and the Labour seat should be safe here. Beyond that, it’s a tough one to call.
The big question is how much the UKIP vote will drop, and where their votes will go. Assuming that Kilroy-Silk doesn’t stand, their voters will probably stick with UKIP or go Conservative, with perhaps some going to the BNP. If enough go Conservative, the Tories might just manage three times the UKIP vote.
Labour were quite a way off a second seat last time round, and I can’t see them taking double the Lib Dem vote this time, but they might possibly make double the UKIP vote and should take at least double the BNP vote.
While I expect the BNP vote to rise here, it’d be a shock if they beat UKIP or the Lib Dems, so that means that I’d favour the Lib Dems to take a seat and probably UKIP to hold one, but there’s an outside chance of the Conservatives or Labour adding an extra one to their tally. If Kilroy-Silk stands, then who knows?
This region saw both the largest fall in Con and the highest rise in UKIP in 2004 vs 1999. The pattern of Con fall / UKIP rise across the country shows a high correlation indicating that the vast majority of UKIP votes came from Con.
On that basis, it would be reasonable to expect that large part of any decline in UKIP votes would lead to a similar increase in the Con share – all other parties remaining equal.
For this region, the UKIP position was further distorted by the presence of Kilroy-Silk (hence the record increase in UKIP vote which more than trebled from 8% to 26%). It is probable that at least a third of UKIP’s additional votes in this region came from Labour, and that some, if not most, of these votes may drift towards BNP rather than Con.
Therefore, it is probable that if Kilroy-Silk were to stand (under whatever banner), he would take votes which may otherwise have gone to UKIP, BNP, or Lab, but probably not Con. In that case, he would possibly deny Lab a second seat.
In summary, 2 Con and 1 Lab almost certain. For the remaining two seats it could be quite interesting.
I think UKIP should retain enough of their 2004 vote to hold 1 (but not certain).
Lab need to at least maintain, if not increase, their vote to pick up a second, but this seems unlikely.
LD need to lift their vote to be sure, but if the Lab and UKIP votes fall enough they could hang on. Any slip in their share and they will lose their seat.
BNP may well gain enough to get into double figures, but they need to overtake at least one of LD or UKIP – if not both, to claim a seat.
If Con can climb back above 35%, and there are a host of parties scrapping in the low teens, they could pull off a third seat, especially if Lab sink below 18%. Could Kilroy-Silk win a seat on his own ? That would really show how much of the UKIP surge in 2004 was down to him rather than the UKIP brand. He would need to get into double figures and fend off BNP, LD and UKIP as well as get more than a third of Con share.
Of all the regions, this one is probably the hardest to call.
Trouble is – will voters who sought out a more hardline alternative to the Tories in 2004 under Howard be won back by the cuddly image (if not reality) of Cameron?
I suspect a lot of the UKIP vote that falls away will go back to the Tories but quite a lot will either stay at home or plump for one of the other anti-Europe parties, either BNP, Libertas or the SWP-front one.
Benjamin -
The No2EU slate may be many things, but for once it isn’t an SWP front – it’s primarily the Communist Party, along with the Socialist Party (formerly the Militant Tendency), Solidarity (Tommy Sheridan’s outfit), and a few odds and ends.
Fair enough – the Socialist fringe seems to have a falling out with itself and reform under a new name every few years – it doesn’t do to keep track.
You knew who I meant – the lefty ones who want to abolish the economy.
Benjamin,
As a Libdem, is it not a bit rich for you to label others as lefties and accuse them of wanting to abolish the economy? You were correct on both counts, but it smells ever so slightly of hypocrisy!
Libertas are announcing their candidates on Friday 24th April by the way.
Any news on them and what impact they are likely to make. I mean what chance does a pro-EU, anti-Lisbon party have?
Simon,
My guess is that Libertas’ share of the vote will be negligible – as it should be. Anyone who sympathises with Libertas has a selection of stronly Eurosceptic parties to choose from, and some more mildly Eurosceptic ones, and the anti-EU vote is split up enough as it is without having a pressure group standing.
I applaud the work Libertas are doing in Ireland, and wish them every success. I may even fund them in the run up to the second Irish referendum, but I do not think they should be competing with parties like UKIP and splitting the vote, and possibly getting less Eurosceptic MEPs elected.
Benjamin – I suspect it may not endear you any more to No2EU to know this, but as well as the Communist party and various others of that ilk, it is supported by the ‘continuity’ Liberal party. I believe Stephen Radford of Liverpool is standing on their list in the North West (the Liberals did reasonably well in that region on their own in 2004)
How so, Neil – The Lib Dems are a liberal party and so, as far as the mid-20th-Century terminology still applies, broadly centrist in outlook – we certainly have a few oddballs but who doesn’t.
As for the economy – I’m not going to comment and merely refer you to Vince Cable. He seems to know what he’s talking about.
We’re the ones always banging on about reducing centralised power and state control of individuals – you won’t find the Commies and loons on the No2EU ticket saying the same!
And yes, I had seen that Cllr Radford was on board with that lot. I think it tells you all that needs to be said about his party and how far from the light he has strayed. Certainly it shows why no-one in the Lib Dems seems in any great hurry to entice them “back”!
OK Benjamin, sorry, I was stirring. The Libdems are not anywhere close to as leftist as they were when Charles Kennedy was leader (he was to the left even of Labour).
One thing I will not concede, however, and that is Vince Cable’s ability on the economy. Listening to the media one would think he was a financial wizard, but listening to him speak himself, I sometimes wonder whether he has moved on from the 3-day-week economics of the 70s. Vince Cable is one of the more socialist members on the Libdem benches – probably that is why the BBC love him so much – and he certainly doesn’t talk sense about the economy.
I don’t know that the party was really any more to the left under Kennedy, merely that he was dealing with two opposition parties which were or had shifted to a broadly centre-right position.
Public services were underfunded and underperforming, the government was heavily allied with a deeply reactionary right-wing US administration which was doing pretty dreadful things – Iraq just being the headline. So Lib Dems were proposing measures that appeared by comparison quite leftist.
Now we have moved on – The problem with schools and hospitals is plainly no longer a lack of funds but a lack of accountability and quality, so those are the areas being focused on. Brown has moved (is simply stopped pretending) and is much more firmly on traditional Labour command/control territory.
The overarching memes are those of restricting personal freedoms and centralising control – so the Lib Dems are focusing much more on these issues. Issues which set us up AGAINST the left. We still believe the same things but the backdrop against which we need to achieve them has changed.
As for Vince sounding like we haven’t moved on from the economy of the 1970s – look around you. We have moved on, but Gordon’s brought us right back again!
The point is, Benjamin, that the reason we are in this mess the depth that we are is precisely because of Gordon’s socialist economics. Vince Cable’s pronouncements are so irredeemably socialist that he advocates going even further in that direction – which will only make the problem worse!
Not sure about that.
The headlines from Vince have been of scrapping 70s-style “just tax the rich” policies (and as if by magic, the 2009 budget appears!) and replacing them with tax cuts for the low waged. It’s quite a departure from the way the progressive agenda used to be pursued – helping the poor rather than screwing the rich and hoping it makes you feel better.
The only really “1970s” things he’s said have been about nationalising failed banks – temporarily – when it has been obvious that these institutions were destined to become reliant on state aid and the judgement was that it would be a better deal for taxpayers if the government accepted up front that Northern Rock WOULD end up in public ownership, did it and got on with turning it round, rather than the half way measure that was proposed and which has been used with other banks have got – whereby the public bails them out and the banks carry on operating as ever they did.
Lib Dems would like to see a different regulation structure where banks don’t become so big they cannot be allowed to fail – but we’re not there, we’re here.
UKIP finished here beyond all doubt. The last seat will be hard to call and the BNP will/should poll double figures so may not be a million miles away but target to get 5 seat very tough although we are giving it some shot at the moment. Weekly records being beaten most weeks should be a fun few weeks ahead
It would be nice if Kilroy-Silk would deign to let his electors know whether he intends to stand again, even at this late stage. His presence could be enough to cause seats to change hands even if he himself hasn’t much chance of being reelected.
Having now read the Libertas web-site they are clearly a strong pro-EU party – not anti as I first thought. Their key policy is that the EU Parliament should govern Europe without the Commission. They opposed Lisbon not because they are anti-EU but because they wanted more power to go to elected representatives. Daft really as that is what Lisbon actually did, but everyone swallowed the gross misrepresentation put out by Euro sceptics.
I do not think this position will get much support. So we still have to guess what will happen to Kilroys vote; he took support from all main parties, and it may simply flow back to them. I also dount if the bNP will get into double figures, they have had a few successes in isolated areas in the East Midlands, which they make a lot of fuss baout – but they mostly get thrashed at by-elections.
I cannot see Libertas making much of an impression. Thier entry into the UK was trumpeted in the media but since then all has gone quiet. If Kilroy-Silk can be bothered to fly over from Spain to visit Leicester with his nomination paper and a bundle of used notes I’m not sure the electorate would fall for his ‘charm’ for a second time.
Why is it we only hear from MEP when they want to be re-elected or elected for the first time????
Updated to reflect official candidate list.
Formal version is here
http://www.leicester.gov.uk/councillors-democracy-and-elections/elections-and-electoral-registration/european-elections-2009/statement-of-parties–individual-candidates-
3 Conservative, 1 Labour, 1 Libdem
I would agree with Neil on seats.
Con – 30-32%
Lab – 18-20%
LD – 10-12%
UKIP – 8-10%
BNP – 8-9%
The LDs could be in danger of losing their seat. Both UKIP and the BNP will be fairly close to them as Paul H-J’s prediction shows, which I think is quite a good prediction.
I have to say I personally am not filled with joy at the thought of Rupert Matthews getting elected – I cannot see it happening however.
The UKIP vote will plummet nationally over 2004 and in this region more so as it previously got the boost form Kilroy-Silk’s candidacy.
That combined with – as the regional profile says – “even the smallest of swings” from Labour in places like Derby, Northampton, Chesterfield and Ashfield which have seen a Lib Dem boost since ’04 should see Bill Newton-Dunn fairly comfortably returned.
I agree – I cannot see the Lib Dems not winning a seat in the East Midlands.
The Lib Dems will be lucky to gain many votes from Labour in Northampton due to the mess they have made of running the Borough Council since winning it two years ago
We shall see – canvassing on the ground seems to tell a different story, and as much as anyone really cares about these things, Northampton Borough Council was assessed as being something like the worst local authority in Europe or some such hyperbole under Labour.
My prediction: Conservative 2, Labour 1, Lib Dems 1.
The final seat will be close between UKIP and the BNP. There is a good chance UKIP will lose well over half its vote and a good chunk of that vote plus some of the Labour vote will move to the BNP. It depends how much of a kicking the electorate want to give the establishment parties, and after the recent parliamentary expenses scandal it’s likely to be a big one.
I agree except that only the 2 Conservatives and 1 Labour are certain. The other two seats will be contested between the LDs, UKIP, BNP and a third Conservative
My prediction for this region similar to Paul H-J
Con 32%
Lab 22%
LD 13%
BNP 12.5%
UKIP 12%
Grn 5%
That gives 2 Con 1 Lab 1 LD 1 BNP, but UKIP clearly in the running to take that last seat at the expense of BNP or LDs
BENJAMIN
Your last post reads:
“We shall see – canvassing on the ground seems to tell a different story, and as much as anyone really cares about these things, Northampton Borough Council was assessed as being something like the worst local authority in Europe or some such hyperbole under Labour.”
May 12th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
As you have identified yourself as a Liberal Democrat I sincerely hope that in making the above statement that you are not a member of said Party and even less so that you are one that lives in Northampton…..
Given the content of your comment and the context in which it is placed particularly where you say “…and as much as anyone really cares about these things, …” refering to the highly unpopular decisions made by the Lib Dems running Northampton Borough Council, can we assume that you are saying local people dont care about:
the destruction of the Market/ Market Square in the town..?
the scrapping of the towns Ballon Festival…?
the stalling of a crucial decision as to whether to permit the development of the local Sixfields Cobblers Football Stadium…?
the wasting of millions of pounds of Council money on employing “Consultants”…?
If the above is what you mean then such a statement is an utter disgrace and would bring further shame on a shameful and inept ruiling Lib Dem administration on Northampton Borough Council…. and merely re-inforce their Breathtaking Arrogance….
I hope the Lib Dems get a Hammering in the County and Euro Elections in Northampton…
The same scenario as the West Midlands with an exciting contest between UKIP, BNP, LD for the final seat.
Is Robert Kilroy-Silk not standing again?
> I personally am not filled with joy at the thought of Rupert Matthews
> getting elected
Any particular reason why?
My canvassing indicates that Local results are not being as badly affected by protest votes, as the expenses scandal is seen as MPs above. EU elections however do seem to be affected – and as David Cameron has now come out clearly in support of the EU my prediction is that the Tories will lose a seat here. Tory 1, Lab 1, Lib-Dem 1, UKIP 1 – as for 5th perhaps we will have our first Green MEP!
Peter Crerar
Is Robert Kilroy-Silk not standing again?
Nope.
Eric’s suggestion is the most ridiculous I have read on here for a long time which given the recent activity of Iain Mackintosh is saying alot!
There does seem to be abit of a late Green surge -though only on this site!
Hi Pete – I can only feedback what I am told on the door – a lot of people want to protest on the EU ballot but not the locals. UKIP are named by a lot of former Torys, Greens by everyone; and regretably a few name the BNP. Still I am prepared to wait until Sunday week to see who is scrapping it out for 5th place. Cameron’s pro-EU credentials are driving Tories to UKIP for the EU ballot; just calling fro reform is not good enough for Euro-sceptics; they want out of the EU.
Eric I quite happily believe that many otherwise Tory supporters will vote for UKIP as they have done in the last two European elections, though even I would have to admit it is likely to be fewer in this region particulalry than last time. I am sure also that rather more than a few people will be voting BNP in this region and they could be in with a chance of winning a seat in this region (as well as having a good chance of winning some county seats especially in Leicestershire and Derbyshire), but for the Greens to win a seat in the manner you describe would require that they outpoll the BNP which is highly unlikely and they win more than half as many votes as the Tories in other words they would need to increase to somewhat over 12% and see the Tories on lower than 24% – that is pie in the sky.
I find it a bit strange that the Greens are being mentioned “by everyone.”
I think turnout will play a very large part in the East Midlands. Here in the south of the region it is hard to find anyone confessing to supporting Labour. If the Labour vote does not hold up in the urban areas, then the result may be more even than appears to be being suggested. Some Tory votes to UKIP and the BNP, some UKIP votes (Killroy Silk) to the BNP, some Labour to BNP and LIb Dems and maybe the Greens. Maybe even some from Green to LIb Dems.