Comments on: Comparisons

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 22:05:56 +0000

I assume the Times Guide will refer to the Thrasher & Rallings figures as these are the ‘official’ ones jointly sponsored by the BBC, ITN, Sky News and the Press Association.

I can confirm that the figures porovided by Nick Whyte and those by Thrasher and Rallings are the same for Northern Ireland.

By: Votedave

Votedave — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 19:41:03 +0000

I wonder which notional results (if any) the next Times Guide to the House of Commons is likely to publish?

By: Joseph Brayson

Joseph Brayson — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 18:53:41 +0000

Please could somebody confirm whether or not the figures provided by Nick Whyte are the same as the R&T figures for Northern Ireland?

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Mon, 17 Dec 2007 11:45:17 +0000

The one that really jumped out at me was the Baxter projection for the Taunton Deane constituency. I think we are all unanimous that the wards that leave the Taunton seat are far more Conservative than those which remain, so I just can’t understand how Baxter has the new Taunton Deane as MORE Conservative than on the present boundaries.

With such a shocking mistake, it would cause me to doubt the other notional results.

By: Abbey Nationalist

Abbey Nationalist — Sun, 16 Dec 2007 21:45:09 +0000

A very useful comparison. Thanks.

By: Paul D

Paul D — Sun, 16 Dec 2007 10:17:36 +0000

Andy, it was more a response to PW’s first post – a possible explanation for why EleCalc treats some wards as 100% Labour in MB’s calculations

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Sat, 15 Dec 2007 22:20:07 +0000

Rallings and Thrasher usually use the lowest vote which a party received in that borough to predict votes in wards where a party didn’t stand.

By: Paul D

Paul D — Sat, 15 Dec 2007 20:08:19 +0000

I believe there are some wards in Knowsley that are generally uncontested (I’m pretty sure it’s the only Metropolitan in England that has uncontested seats) so technically the Tories and LibDems score zero in them. However it is unrealistic to assume that they genuinely have zero support to Labours 15,000 or whatever the electorate is

By: Joseph Brayson

Joseph Brayson — Sat, 15 Dec 2007 20:01:50 +0000

Does anybody know if the R&T figures are online yet, as although i’ve got the book, it would be interesting to directly compare the two sets of figures. Also are Martin Baxter’s figures final or would he revise them?
Thanks.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 13:17:08 +0000

Yes that seems rather implausible. It is possible to reduce the percentage majority in both, if say a ward was moving from |Stockton South to Stockton North which was more heavily Labour than the average for Stockton South but not as Labour as the average for Stockton North – that would reduce the percentage lead in both seats. Obviously though the numerical majority could not fall in both. Looking at the Stockton results in that seat the diference is too great to beaccounted for by my explanation so I suggest it is just plain wrong.