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Comparisons with other estimates

There are several other estimates of the partisan effects of the boundary changes. These include Martin Baxter’s estimates at www.electoralcalculus.co.uk and Lewis Baston’s estimates at the ERS, the main political parties will also have their own estimates. The most important alternate figures are those compiled by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University for the media guide, which will be used by the mainstream media for all their election coverage and are regarded as the “official” figures. All methods should result in broadly similar figures, but inevitably some differences will arise due to projects using figures from different local elections and handling non-contested seats and independents in different ways.

As of February 2007 the only complete detailed estimates are available from Martin Baxter and Rallings & Thrasher. Differences in who notionally holds seats in the two projections are detailed below, though obviouly these are only the most cosmetically obvious differences; there may be more larger differences between the projections in seats where it doesn’t lead to a seat changing hands.

Rallings and Thrasher

Seats held by Labour on Wells projections and the Conservatives on Rallings & Thrasher projections
Finchley and Golders Green (link)

Seats held by the Conservatives on Wells projections and Liberal Democrats on Rallings & Thrasher projections
Somerton and Frome (link)

Seats held by the Liberal Democrats on Wells projections and Labour on Rallings & Thrasher projections
Oxford East (link)
Rochdale (link)

Seats held by the Conservatives on Wells projections and Labour on Rallings & Thrasher projections
Rugby (link)
Gillingham and Rainham (link)
Portsmouth North (link)
Ealing Central and Acton (link)

Baxter

Seats held by the Conservatives on Wells projections and Liberal Democrats on Baxter projections
Solihull (Wells/Baxter)
Somerton and Frome (Wells/Baxter)
Guildford (Wells/Baxter)

Seats held by the Conservatives on Wells projections and Labour on Baxter projections
Somerset North East (Wells/Baxter)
Ealing Central and Acton (Wells/Baxter)

Seats held by the Liberal Democrats on Wells projections and Labour on Baxter projections
Oxford East (Wells/Baxter)
Leeds North West (Wells/Baxter)

Seats held by the Liberal Democrats on Wells projections and Conservative on Baxter projections
Taunton Deane (Wells/Baxter)

Seats held by Labour on Wells projections and Conservative on Baxter projections
Finchley and Golders Green (Wells/Baxter)

Seats held by Labour on Wells projections and the Liberal Democrats on Baxter projections
Hampstead and Kilburn (Wells/Baxter)

Total Changes
Overall the Wells projections see the Conservatives gaining 16 seats, Labour losing 12, the Liberal Democrats gaining 1 and Plaid Cymru losing 1. The Rallings and Thrasher projections increase the number of Conservative seats by 12, reduce Labour’s seats by 7 and reduce Plaid Cymru’s by 1. They do not project any overall change in the number of Lib Dem seats. The Baxter projections see the Conservatives gaining 13 seats, Labour losing 10, the Liberal Democrats gaining 2 and Plaid Cymru losing 1.

For reference, the methodology used by Rallings and Thrasher is almost identical to that used here. What differences there are are very minor and technical, but for those who are interested when using local election results from all-out elections Rallings and Thrasher use the average vote received by each party’s candidates in a ward, I used the highest vote recieved by each party’s candidates. Secondly, in uncontested wards I gave the party of the winning candidate a vote equal to the share of the electorate who voted for that party equal to the average share of the electorate who voted for them in all the wards they won in that local authority, Rallings & Thrasher gave the winning candidate a vote equal to the share of the electorate who voted for that party in their best ward in that local authority. For parties who didn’t contest a ward, Rallings and Thrasher gave them a share of the electorate equal to the share of the electorate who voted for them in their worst performing ward in the local authority, I gave they a share of the electorate equal to the average share of the electorate who voted for all their losing candidates in that local authority. I ignored all independent candidates, when in some cases where they were obvious proxies for main political parties Rallings and Thrasher reallocated them. In London I used London assembly constituency results, while Rallings and Thrasher used local authority results throughout.

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide