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Seats by Region
The strange activities of Wirral West Conservatives become even more surreal!
Have you thought of unfreezing the Wirral West site. ? possibly with a degree of moderation!
This is an interesting story meritorius of comment but there are other stories in the area such as the
Labour MP siding with the Conservatives in opposing the Labour/Liberal Council Coalition’s plans to close a major leisure centre in the constituency as well as three libraries etc. There was for instance a public meeting of 800 in the Constituency only last week
I wondered why Merseymike had posted on this thread -didnt realise Wirral West had been locked. I guess the obvious thing to do would be to post this kind of thing on a neighbouring seat, Wirral South or Wallasey.
I just had a hilarious time reading through the Wirral West posts, especially with comments like: “This has been an interesting debtae”, “I heard similar reports”, “Spot on…”. (Sorry if any of those comments were actually made by different people).
Re Andy Stilwell (17/1 @ 1.25) “Steve” used at least one of those phrases to comment about some comments I made.
I will make it clear, I am not “Steve” in another guise nor have I discussed any comments I have made with any third parties. I have read his comments very carefully to see if there was any way of working out who he/she was. I even thought he/she was a Wirral Councillor but at the time of one posting by him/her, both of my suspects were at the Town Hall in Full Council.
I didn’t notice Wirral West had been shut until read this.
It did look like some tedious squabble, either put out by a split in the local party or by rival parties pretending to be the former.
But it didn’t quite click it could have been the same person.
On the seat – Con Hold/Gain. (unless something changes markedly on the economy).
In the absense of a Wirral West thread at present – Independent councillor David Kirwan has announced he will be contesting this seat at the GE as an anti-sleaze Independent candidate.
I hear some of the Scottish constituencies are changing before the next General Election – anyone know of any?
Oh well, the bad news is, we all have a BNP candidate for the next General Election, apparently theyre hitting 40,000 members and will stand in every constituency.
They’re only changing for the next Holyrood election. The Scottish seats at Westminster will probably remain the same until the next election but one at the very earliest.
And BNP candidates everywhere might set them back rather than propel them forward – barring areas where they’re doing well, they could end an election campaign about £275-300k down in lost deposits. They could regret that move…
As far as I can see, the BNP have only selected 8 candidates so far, so if they are planning to stand, theyve got a lot of work to do between now and the election.
Out of interest Andrew, where did you get the information of 40000 members from?
I think it was a Tory MP that said they were going to be challenging the Lib Dems for 3rd place at the next election and were reaching 40 thousand members, god help us all.
Thanks Will, I wasn’t sure if it was for the next General Election. Cheers
Does anyone know what has happened to the Halifax pages?
Perhaps the Government has had them merged with another set of pages, run by someone called Lloyd?
Can anyone out there (perhaps Will, or Oldnat, or Cllr Peter) enlighten me as to where the Glorious Leader, Comrade Salmond expects the 20 SNP seats to come from at the next election?
The SNP currently hold 7 (including Glasgow East which they are very likely to lose), and I would say that 15 seats would be an absolute dream night for them, 12 a good night, and 10 probably the most realistic figure. I would be interested to see a list of the 20 seats Wee Eck expects to have. I will shortly post a list of SNP targets ranked by swing required.
Not being in receipt of any sort fo strategy memo that would detail that, I’d guess that it would the list would be based loosely on the 21 Holyrood Constituencies won in 2007. IIRC, the target of 20 came at the 2008 Spring Conference, so that puts it before the Glasgow East (when it would have looked too cautious) and Glenrothes (when it would have looked too ambitious) By-Elections…
I don’t think there’s a Westminster seat in Glasgow that matches the Holyrood Glasgow Govan seat (held by Nicola Sturgeon) so that’s 1 of the 21 less for a starter.
“I don’t think there’s a Westminster seat in Glasgow that matches the Holyrood Glasgow Govan seat (held by Nicola Sturgeon”
yes, Holyrood’s Govan is divided between Glasgow Central (34%), Glasgow South (34%) and Glasgow South West (32%) at Westminster level.
FWIW, after Euro elections Glasgow council released figures at constituency level and SNP was ahead in Glasgow South and Glasgow North
So Andrea makes NOA’s point for him. Glasgow Govan is split pretty much equally between 3 Westminster constituencies. Also, 21/72 constituencies at the Scottish parliament does not equate to 20/59 in Westminster, even if there were equivalent seats for all of them.
Furthermore, the SNP will always do better in SP elections than GEs for the simple reason that everyone knows they are an irrelevance in Westminster – a fact I have spoken to many times.
Added to that the fact that 2007 was a high point for the SNP in terms of popularity, and I think the 20 target is mere fantasy.
Apologies, there are of course 73 constituencies for the Scottish Parliament, not 72. Not that it makes much difference, but it only emphasises my point. 21/73=28.7% of SP constituencies won by the SNP. 20/59=33.9% of Westminster constituencies Alex Salmond thinks he will win.
If the SNP were to win the same %age of seats in 2010 as they did in 2007 (which they wont) they would win 59/73*21 = 17 seats (rounded up).
I stick to my prediction that the SNP will win 10-12 seats. I gather Ladbrokes give good odds on this, if I was a betting man I would hit it, but I’m not.
Also: Angus, North Tayside, Perth and Ochil are 4 Holyrood SNP-held seats which correspond to only 3 at Westminster – Angus, Perth & North Perthshire, Ochil & South Perthshire.
Cannot access Spelthorne in SE Region.
Have looked on main page and cannot find a simple query button to tell the webmaster so am resorting to this.
Top 14 SNP Targets (Westminster 2005 vs Holyrood 2007)
1) Ochil (0.74%) – SNP
2) Dundee West (7.28%) – SNP
3) Kilmarnock (9.80%) – SNP
4) Aberdeen North (10.08%) – SNP
5) Argyll and Bute (10.49%) – SNP
6) Edinburgh East (11.51%) – SNP
7) Stirling (11.70%) – SNP
8) Edinburgh North (12.02%) – Lab
9) Linlithgow (12.07%) – Lab
10) Ayrshire North (12.98%) – SNP
11) Glasgow North (13.23%) – Lab
12) Inverness (13.37%) – SNP
13) Aberdeen South (13.40%) – Lib Dem
14) Paisley and Renfrewshire North (13.45%) – Lab
Is Gordon not also an SNP target bearing in mind the margin the SNP won the Holyrood Aberdeen North (which is largely in the Westminster seat) and Salmonds victory in the Holyrood Gordon seat?
Another factor in Gordon (and also the Tories’ prospects in West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine) is the effects of Trumpgate on the local LibDems: the two most prominent figures to be booted out of the party for disagreeing with the local leadership – Martin Ford and Debra Storr – have both now joined the Greens. This will give the Greens extra prominence in Aberdeenshire, and give them an opportunity to make larger-than-expected inroads into the LibDem vote.
And if that does happen, then that increases the chances of the LibDems losing at least one of their Aberdeenshire seats…
PS The problem with using the 2005 results as a straightforward target list is it doesn’t take into account changes in other factors since then. So if anything, I’d say Livingston – which no one has mentioned on this thread yet – is probably a better SNP prospect than Linlithgow & East Falkirk: the By-Election showed that Robin Cook had a large personal vote that Jim Devine didn’t manage to hold onto. Combine that with the row over Devine’s expenses and the fact that Labour now have to start from scratch with a new candidate following his enforced deselection, to say nothing of the SNP winning the equivalent Holyrood seat, and the result is one of a number of very tempting targets that don’t appear on that list…
“I stick to my prediction that the SNP will win 10-12 seats. I gather Ladbrokes give good odds on this, if I was a betting man I would hit it, but I’m not.”
10 – 12 of 59 seats will still be greater than the SNP’s best performance in Oct 1974 (11 of 71). To talk of 20 of 59 seats really is fantasy land.
I’ve returned from a long break from this site, looks good
btw Essex seats should be in the Eastern region, currently in South East
But love the regional setup it makes seats easier to find
Does anybody know the year when the nine English regions are recognised by the EU were altered?
Essex, Hertfordshire and Bedfordshire were moved from SE England to join East Anglia (Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire) to form the new Eastern England region. What was wrong with the name ‘East Anglia’? People in the North, Wales and Scotland know where East Anglia is, not Eastern England.
Cumbria us to be in the North England Region before being moved to the North West. Consiquently the North England region was renamed North East.
Yorkshire & Humberside was nenamed Yorkshire & The Humber, to respect the abolition of Humberside. Although North Humberside was East Yorkshire, the region still uncluded South Humberside which was North and North East Lincolnshire (so Humber remained in the region name).
DATE: 27th November 1946
Rt.Hon. W E Elliot Con 22,152
Dr. C Joad Lab 3,731
Mr J M Bannerman Lib 2,593
Mr J G Jameson Ind 2,080
Dr. R Scott – Stevenson Liberal National 1,938 Majority 18,421
Conservative gain from Independent
If this seat still existed that was abolished in 1950 it would now be far more marginal, with the Tories losing 2 out of 3 votes.
Lib Dem 5544
That by-election was of minor interest, in that it was the last election in any Westminster university constituency, and that it was the last time the Tories and National Liberals stood against each other. It can be fun plucking numbers out of thin air – but why not for one of the 650 seats which do exist, or at least some territorial seat where there is some data?
According to Wikipedia, use of the old statistical regions (including East Anglia) was discontinued in 1999, although the current Euro regions had been adopted (for what, I don’t know) in 1994. Looking at the Wikipedia article on Historical and alternative regions of England, the Euro regions bear a remarkable similarity with the historic English Civil Defence Regions. If this is the origin of the current regions, then the Eastern region was created around the start of the Second World War.
Has Sunderland Central been blocked from having any further posts put on it ?
Has Edmonton been blocked on this site?
Thank you, UKPollingReport for your great coverage.
For want of anywhere else to put this, I’ve re-done my Holyrood notional figures given the revised recommendations for the regions – I now get the figures to SNP 46 (-1), Lab 44 (-2), Con 19 (+2), LD 17 (+1), Greens 2 and 1 Independent. As before, anyone who wants the full details, just drop me a line.
How does one drop you a line?
It’s slightly circuitous, but there’s a link to my e-mail on my blog profile, to which there’s a link on my name here. I’d copy it here, but a) I’d imagine it’d need extra moderation and b) I don’t get much spam at the moment, and that’s the way I likes it.
Thanks. I didnt realise that people’s names on here linked to websites
Please note that I am the UKIP Parliamentary Candidate for North Wiltshire (see profile) and that E. Bland is, as far as I am aware, no longer a UKIP Candidate or involved with UKIP in any way.
all comments on the stourbridge constituency naturally assume a red or blue victory only one person mentioned ukip, ukip will affect the result in this seat significantly at the euro election june 09 ukip polled second behind the conservatives with labour a very distant third. ukip may well cost the torys this target seat.
Any sign of a solution to the strangely unique problems caused in trying to create an SNP candidates page….
There is a full list on the SNP sebsite now.
Borderer – Mea culpa – I solved the problem a month or so back, but forgot to add a link to it!
The list itself probably isn’t up to date though (and I started on an SNP list after many SNP candidates had been selected, so there will be some candidates selected a long, long time ago who are missing off the list)
I note that the information on the new Chippenham and Devizes Constituencies has been updated, but not the entry for North Wiltshire, where the UKIP Candidate has changed and you are still showing someone who is no longer a candidate anywhere!
Charles we have been waiting for the candidate for UKIP and BNP to be updated for NW Leicestershire for somewhile Ian Meller was chosen and announced for the BNP last year. And the UKIP candidate also changed recently
Hi – any chance of updating the LD Pudsey candidate to Jamie Matthews, please? It hasn’t been David Morton for a while. If you email me I can send you more info about him and a photo (if required). Ta!
Has Ceredigion been removed for some reason or is it just a technical glitch.
Also, any progress on putting Barking and Battersea back on the list of London seats?
UU/Con gain from New Labour
Has Rhondda been removed for a reason?
A few seats in Wales have been removed. Can we have them back please!!!!!!!!!!!!