The UKPollingReport election guide for 2010 has now been archived and all comments will shortly be closed. The new Election Guide for the 2015 election is now online at The old site is archived at the UK Web Archive.

Rallings and Thrasher have released their notional figures for the last election. The figures, contained in the media guide to the new parliamentary constituencies, will be those used by the mainstream media come the next election. There are not precise details on the BBC website, but the net notional changes predicted by Rallings and Thrasher are for the Conservatives to gain 12 seats, Labour to lose 7 and Plaid Cymru to lose one. These are smaller changes than either mine or Martin Baxter’s notional figures – I’ll do a proper comparison of where the predictions differ at a later date.

It’s worth noting that, while the way the country would have looked in 2005 is worse for the Tories on the Rallings and Thrasher figures than the Wells or Baxter figures, overall they are marginally better for the Conservatives. On the Wells notional figures the Conservatives would need a 7.1% swing to gain an overall majority, on the Rallings & Trasher figures they need a 6.9% swing.

(I’ve also been quitely beavering away at adding new candidates as they are selected – new candidates added in Barrow and Furness, Liverpool Riverside & Wavertree, Skipton and Ripon, Sutton and Cheam, Devon North, Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, Chelmsford, Birmingham Ladywood, Hexham along with various other seats)