Two new voting intention polls out today, one from ICM in the Guardian and one from YouGov in the Times.

Topline figures from ICM are CON 39%(-1), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 6%(+1). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, and changes are from a fortnight ago. Clearly there is no significant change from the previous poll, and Labour and the Conservatives remain extremely close. Tabs for the ICM poll are here.

YouGov meanwhile have topline figures of CON 39%(+1), LAB 35%(-3), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 7%(+1). Fieldwork was a little more recent, between Wednesday and Thursday, and changes are from last week. The 35% figure for Labour here is their lowest since the general election. The usual caveats apply – it’s a single poll, so while that could be an indication that the ongoing Labour infighting over antisemitism has knocked their support, it could also just be normal sample variation. Wait to see if other polls show a similar drop before getting too excited. On best Prime Minister May leads Corbyn by 36%(+4) to 22%(-3), with 39% of people saying not sure. YouGov’s regular Brexit tracker found 42% saying Britain was right to vote to Leave, 45% saying it was wrong.


A quick update on recent voting intention polls. When I last updated in mid-July, there was a clear trend towards Labour across the polling companies, with YouGov, Opinium, Deltapoll all showing the Conservatives dropping backing significantly in the wake of the Johnson & Davis resignations (whether one attributes that to the Chequers agreement or the resignations it is impossible to say from the evidence given they were so close together. My guess is that it is a combination of the two).

The later polling towards the end of July suggested that movement had flattened out a bit – the last four published polls are below:

YouGov/Times (20th Jul) – CON 38%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6%
ICM/Guardian (22nd Jul) – CON 40%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%
YouGov/Times (23rd Jul) – CON 38%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 6%
Ipsos MORI/Standard (24th Jul) – CON 38%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 6%

As you can see, two had Labour a point ahead, the later two had the parties neck-and-neck again. That clear Labour lead we breifly saw appears to have quickly faded again once the media was no longer focusing on Chequers & the resignations. That’s not to say there is no lasting impact at all. Back in May and June polls were showing a consistent Tory lead – that has gone; UKIP appeared dead in the water, but in these latest polls they are still up at 5% or 6%. Finally, and least noticed, polls showing the Lib Dems breaching double figures are increasingly common. There were five of them in July, compared to just one in June and just one in May.


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