Opinium’s latest poll has topline figures of CON 47%(+2), LAB 30%(+4), LDEM 8%(-3), UKIP 7%(-2) (tables here). The changes are from last weekend, though should be taken with a slight caveat – Opinium have added recalled 2015 vote to their weighting scheme. That changes means it’s hard to tell whether the four point increase in Labour’s support here is in line with the intriguing YouGov poll in the week, or just a result of methodology change. We’ll have another YouGov poll for the Sunday Times later tonight which may shed some light.
UPDATE: There is also an ORB poll in the Sunday Telegraph. Topline figures there are CON 42%, LAB 31%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8% – a Conservative lead of eleven points. No changes, as I think this is first proper ORB poll of the campaign, but it is clearly a lower lead than other companies are showing. The Sunday Telegraph themselves have gone rather over the top in their write up of the piece, focusing on the individual regional crossbreaks in what I assume is a normal sized GB poll and saying how remarkable it is that the Conservatives have a bigger lead in Wales than the South-East. This is not remarkable at all: it is because in a GB poll of a thousand people there will only be about 40 respondents in Wales, far too small to get meaningful figures from. A sample of 40 people would have a margin of error of +/- 15 points.