YouGov’s final European election poll is out tonight, conducted for the Sun and the Times. Topline figures are CON 22%, LAB 26%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 27%, GRN 10%. Like YouGov’s recent polls it shows a very tight race for first place between UKIP and Labour, the Conservatives in third place and a similarly tight race between the Greens and Liberal Democrats for fourth place.

A couple of methodology notes – the poll was weighted by likelihood to vote (so people who said they were 10/10 likely to vote or had already voted by post were given full weight, people 9/10 likely to vote weighted by 0.9, 8/10 weighted by 0.8 and so on) and respondents in each region were shown a list of all the parties standing in their own region.

The only other final call poll still due that I’m aware of is from Opinium – I’ll update when that arrives.

UPDATE: And here it is, Opinium’s final poll for the Daily Mail is CON 21%, LAB 25%, LD 6%, UKIP 32%, GRN 6%. Unless a surprise Populus or MORI poll pop up tomorrow that should be it for European election polling.

ComRes have a poll of marginal seats out tonight covering the forty most marginal seats with Labour and Conservative in first and second place (so 25 with Tory incumbents, 15 with Labour incumbents). Collectively the vote in these seats was CON 37%, LAB 37%, LDEM 18%, UKIP 3% at the last general election. In today’s poll ComRes found current support of CON 33%(-4), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 8%(-10), UKIP 17%(+14). That’s a swing from Conservative to Labour of just one point, far lower than the swing shown in ComRes’s GB polls (it would be the equivalent of a national poll showing a Conservative lead of five points) suggesting Labour are doing worse in key marginals than in the country as a whole.

ComRes also break down the figures for the Conservative held and Labour held seats (though given the sample was only 1000 to begin with, caveats about sample size obviously kick in here). In the Tory held seats the Conservatives have a lead of 2 points (no change since the election), in the Labour held seats Labour have an 8 point lead (up 6 since the election). What that means is if these figures were repeated at the general election none of these Con/Lab seats would change hands at all – the Tories would hold theirs, Labour would hold theirs. In practice it wouldn’t work like that of course, there isn’t a uniform swing and some seats would probably switch in both directions, but it’s a suggestion that there isn’t really a swing to either Lab or Con in the key marginals.

A word about polls of marginal seats. I’m always a bit wary of reading too much into them. In theory they *should* be far more useful in predicting elections, in practice… perhaps not, probably because of how uncommon they are. They tend to be rare one-offs and show contradictory things: the last Ashcroft poll of marginals showed Labour doing better in marginals, the previous Ashcroft marginal poll has show the Tories doing a tiny bit better, this one shows the Tories doing much better. That might be different methods, or change over time (there are years between those polls!) or just normal margin of error. With so few such polls it’s impossible to tell – yet because they are so rare there’s a temptation to read a lot into them. You shouldn’t. Rarity of a poll doesn’t decrease its confidence interval. The good news is that this ComRes poll is apparently the start of a series, so assuming they are relatively frequent we will have a better chance to at least be able to look at trends and averages over time and how they relate to ComRes’s national figures.


Survation have put our their final European election poll, conducted for the Daily Mirror. Topline figures are CON 23%, LAB 27%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 32%, GRN 4%. Survation made an additional tweak to their approach to turnout for their final poll, downweighting people who could not correctly identify which day of the week the European election was on – this marginally increased UKIP support and reduced Labour support. Tabs are here.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%. For the European election Labour and UKIP are neck and neck going into the final day: CON 23%, LAB 27%, LD 10%, UKIP 27%, GRN 8%. YouGov’s final poll is still to come tomorrow.

ComRes marginals poll due in about 20 minutes…

There is also a new Opinium poll out in this morning’s Daily Mail, with full details here on the Opinium website. Topline figures are CON 20%, LAB 29%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 31%, GRN 5%, BNP 3%. Labour and UKIP very close for first place, the Lib Dems equal with the Greens but on only 5%, which would probably lose them all their MEPs.

Turnout filter is those saying they are 5/10 likely to vote or higher. It’s unclear if this is Opinium’s final poll before the European election – the fieldwork was actually conducted at the tail end of last week.

UPDATE: Opinium didn’t include people at 5/10, it’s a bit more complicated than that: their final number includes people who are 9/10+ likely OR 7/10+ and voted the same way in 2009. Still to come tonight we have the regular YouGov/Sun poll and an interesting ComRes poll at 10.30 (not Euros, something different…)

We have another final European poll, this time from TNS. Their topline figures for European voting intention are CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 31%, OTHER 13% – much closer than their previous poll which had a nine point lead for UKIP. It’s based on only those certain to vote, but from a four-point verbal scale rather than a 0-10 scale, so it’s not as strict a filter.

In terms of polls still to come, there is certainly a YouGov final poll still in the works. ComRes and TNS have both published their final polls before voting. I don’t know if Survation, Populus, Opinium or ICM who have all polled on the European elections this cycle will produce any new figures before Thursday. MORI so far haven’t polled on the European election this cycle.