The Sun Politics team have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov voting intention figures – topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%. There was a three point YouGov lead yesterday, but today’s figures are far more representative of recent YouGov polls, which on average have been showing a six point lead.

The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out tonight, the first of the three telephone polls each month. Topline voting intention figures with changes from December are CON 32%(nc), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 14%(+2), UKIP 10%(+1). The three point Labour lead is lower than ICM’s last few polls, but not completely out of kilter, they were showing three and four point leads last autumn.

ICM also find the growing economic confidence that we’ve seen in other trackers, though interestingly theirs is in a question that also specifically references keeping up with the cost of living. Asked to “consider the economy for a moment, your current financial position, and your ability to keep up with the cost of living” 52% now say they are confident, 47% not confident – the most positive since 2010.

The poll also asked about protecting pensioners from cuts, finding 33% wanting pensioners excluding, 59% wanting everyone to take their share, and immigration. The immigration question appears to have been prefaced with information telling respondents that immigrants are more likely to be in work than other British residents, but even with the effect of that information 54% say immigration is bad for Britain, only 36% good.

Meanwhile today’s twice-weekly Populus poll had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 9%. Tabs here.


The first weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll is out this morning here. Topline voting intention figures are CON 31%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%. Nine points is a larger Labour lead than YouGov have shown so far this week, so normal caveats apply.

17% of people expect their financial situation to get better in the year ahead, 36% expect it to be much the same, 41% still expect it to get worse – a net “feel good factor” of minus 24. While other polls show people starting to think the economy as a whole is improving, they are still pessimistic about their own economic fortunes. That said, they are increasingly less pessimistic. This minus 24 is actually much less bad than most of YouGov’s polling over the last four years, only once last year did they show a less negative figure (-23 in September 2013).

Moving onto the specifics of spending cuts YouGov asked what areas people would like to see prioritised for cuts. As usual overseas aid came top by far (71% want to see it cut), followed by welfare benefits (37%), defence (20%) and local government (11%) – there is no other area that more than 10% of people actively want to see prioritised for cuts. On the other side of the equation, people most want to see the NHS (67%), education (54%), pensions (39%) and policing (33%) protected from cuts. For welfare in particular, 15% want to see it protected from cuts, but 37% want to see it prioritised for them.

Note how overseas aid is widely identified as something people want cut with few people wanting to protect it and, at the other end, many people want to see the NHS, education and policing protected with few wanting to see them cut. Welfare and defence are the two interesting battlegrounds as both have substantial numbers of people wanting them cut and wanting them protected.

Looking at specific potential benefit cuts, large majorities would support stopping immigrants from receiving benefits, even for lengthy periods of time. 76% would support a two year ban, 62% a five year ban. The is also solid support for the current benefit cap of £26,000 (supported by 76%) and 49% would support a lower cap of £15,000. A limit on child benefit so it is paid for only 2 children would be supported by 68%. People are least enthusiastic about stopping benefits for the under 25s – they would support an end to housing benefits for those under 25 by 49% to 34%, but a solid majority (59%) would oppose ending all benefits for under 25s.

On the state pension and the minimum wage, 65% of people support Cameron guaranteeing the triple lock for the state pension until 2020, 12% are opposed (as one might expect, there is a heavy age skew – 87% of over 60s support it, 46% of under 25s); 66% would support a substantial increase in the minimum wage, 19% of people would be opposed.

Moving onto the issue of immigration, 76% of people support David Cameron’s stated aim of reducing immigration to the “tens of thousands”, but the overwhelmingly majority (83%) of people think it is unlikely he will achieve it, only 9% think it is likely. When YouGov asked the same question two years ago 15% thought it was likely Cameron would hit his target, so while net immigration has fallen somewhat over recent years, its not registering with the public.

31% of people in England support free schools, 42% of people are opposed. Looking forward, 24% want to see free schools continue to open, 18% want to see them stopped, but those that already exist retained, 26% of people think current free schools should be brought under local authority control.

Populus’s twice-weekly voting intention polls have now also started up for the new year, with their first tables for 2014 published here. Voting intentions are CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 8%.

Meanwhile this morning’s daily YouGov poll has figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs here.

The daily YouGov voting intention poll for the Sun is up and running again for the new year. The first results are here and have topline voting intentions of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%. The eight point lead for Labour is larger than YouGov were showing at the end of 2013, but of course this is but one poll. We’ll need to wait a couple of days before we can tell what YouGov’s figures are averaging out at.