We finally have a Scottish post-white paper poll from a BPC member: Ipsos MORI have released their regular Scottish public opinion monitor, conducted in the week following the publication of the white paper.

Amongst those certain to vote referendum voting intention is YES 34%(+3), NO 57%(-2). Changes are from the previous MORI poll in September. This represents a slight shift towards the YES campaign in the last three months, though given MORI tend to show one of the largest leads for the No campaign this still leaves them with a 23 point lead.

If the same trend is repeated in other post-white paper polls from companies that tend to show a tigher race we could see some interesting polls. Then again, this is just one poll and the changes are within the margin of error, so we may very well find other polls don’t show the same sort of movement at all. Time will tell.

The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 32%(+2), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), UKIP 9%(-2). Changes are from ICM’s November poll.

Other questions in the poll found that 50% agreed with the statement that the recovery is now underway, 42% of people disagreed. However only 26% of people said that they themselves had benefitted from the recovery so far. Cameron & Osborne’s lead over Miliband & Balls as the most trusted team on the economy remains at 16 points.

Meanwhile the twice-weekly Populus poll this morning has figures of CON 33%, LAB 41%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 7%. Full tabs here.


YouGov’s weekly results for the Sunday Times are now up here. Voting intention figures are CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%, suggesting that Thurday’s odd 12 point lead was indeed the outlier I think most people assumed it was (the five point lead is itself a bit lower than usual, but I wouldn’t read anything into that yet either)

There is nothing suggesting a big impact from the Autumn statement itself, but attitudes to the economy and the government’s economic management remain on a longer term upwards trend – essentially the statement itself doesn’t seem to have done much (it was probably overshadowed by the death of Nelson Mandela anyway), but the growth of the economy is dragging up these figures anyway.

43% of people now think the economy is showing signs of recovery or is well on the way to recovery, up from 37% in August and just 14% in April. 51% of people still think the economy shows no signs of recovery or is getting even worse. Asked how much the government has contributed to this, 36% now think the government’s actions helped the economy (up 4 from August), 30% that they made it worse (down 4), 24% that they made no difference either way.

The coalition have a healthy lead over Labour on dealing with the deficit (by 35% to 21%) and improving the economy (35% to 25%), but trail behind Labour on keeping down living costs, where the opposition lead by 33% to 25%. Turning to Osborne himself, 26% now think he is doing a good job as Chancellor, 46% a bad job. This is little changed from when YouGov last asked in July, but far better than the public saw him last year, when his approval rating was down in the mid-teens. He leads Ed Balls on who would make the better Chancellor by 32% to 22%, though 46% say don’t know.

On the specifics of the statement, 31% of people think they will be worse off, 5% better off, 46% expect it to make no real difference – the answers appear to be mainly partisan, although people between 40-59 are most likely to say they’ll be worse off, presumably on the back of pension age changes. On that subject 32% support increasing the state pension age, 57% of people say they are opposed.

TNS BMRB released a new poll on the Scottish independence referendum this morning. I expected several polls to appear in the wake of the publication of the white paper, letting us see if it had any effect on referendum voting intentions.

This alas is not one of them, as annoyingly it was carried out almost wholly before the white paper was published. For the record the figures show very little change from the previous TNS poll in October. The YES vote stands at 26%(+1), the NO vote at 42%(-1), 32% are undecided (for some reason TNS tend to show a much higher level of don’t knows compared to other Scottish referendum polls). Full tabs are here.

I’ve been a little bit run off my feet this week, so here’s a brief rundown on polls over the last three days.

In terms of voting intention, the Populus poll on Monday and the three daily YouGov/Sun polls so far this week are below, and show things still trundling along with a Labour lead of seven points or so (the interesting spike in UKIP scores in the YouGov polls at the end of last week looks like it was just a blip after all).

Populus (29th Nov-1st Dec) – CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 9%
YouGov/Sun (1st-2nd Dec) – CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%
YouGov/Sun (2nd-3rd Dec) – CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%
YouGov/Sun (3rd-4th Dec) – CON 34%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%

This morning two more of Alan Bown’s Survation constituency polls were published, this time of Great Grimsby and Dudley North. These two are both Labour held marginals with the Conservatives in close second place in 2010, presumably picked because they were also the two Lab-Con ultra-marginals where UKIP performed most strongly in 2010 (UKIP got 6.2% in Great Grimsby, 8.5% in Dudley North). Both seats found a swing of 9 percent from Con to Lab – so slightly larger than that suggested by Survation’s national polling in recent months.