The monthly Ipsos MORI political monitor for the Standard shows the two main parties neck and neck, CON 35%(+1), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 10%(-1). This is the first time MORI have shown the Conservatives catching Labour since January 2012, when David Cameron was enjoying a boost from his European “veto”. Looking at the wider context, while this poll may well be an outlier in the Conservatives’ favour, the underlying average lead does seem to have got down to the mid-single figures, meaning normal random variation will sometimes split out polls with tiny or non-existent Labour leads.

MORI also asked people which of the policies highlighted during the conferences would be best for them and the country. Ed Miliband’s promise of a fuel tax promise came top of both, followed by George Osborne’s freeze on fuel duty and far ahead of help to buy or the expansion of free childcare. The post conference period so far has been a good illustration of how a popular policy does not necessarily translate into a boost in voting intention. Polls have been pretty consistent in showing widespread support for Labour’s promised energy price freeze and it has received widespread coverage… but that does not mean it actually moves any votes (or at least, not enough to show up in polls).

Full tabs from MORI are here.

YouGov London poll

Yesterday there was also a new YouGov London poll for the Evening Standard (full tables are up on the YouGov website here).

The topline voting intention figures are CON 32%, LAB 45%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 9% – this reflects a swing of 5.5% from Con to Lab since the general election, pretty much in line with that YouGov’s current GB polls are showing.

Boris Johnson continues to enjoy positive ratings – 64% think he is doing his job of Mayor well, only 27% badly. Looking to his future, 43% think it would be reasonable for him to stand for Parliament at the next election, 39% think it would not be reasonable for him to stand until after his term as mayor expires in 2016. A majority (52%) think it would not be acceptable for him to be an MP and mayor at the same time.

Looking towards the Labour contest, YouGov asked who people would be the best Labour candidate for mayor in 2016. At this stage this is probably largely a name recognition exercise and the there was a sizeable chunk of don’t knows, but Eddie Izzard came top amongst Londoners (which at least shows people think he would be a serious contender, not a joke candidate) and joint top with Tessa Jowell amongst Labour voters.


TNS BMRB have a new poll out today. Topline figures are CON 34% (+5), LAB 36% (-3), LD 9%(nc), UKIP 13%(-1). These are particularly unusual figures, TNS normally show some of the biggest Labour leads of any company, and for the last six months or so have been pretty consistent in showing Labour leads up around ten points. Suddenly we have a big narrowing of the Labour lead, dropping right down to 2 points, the lowest I have from TNS since November 2011. Even withstanding the small lead in YouGov’s poll this morning, I’d treat any poll showing such a big movement with no obvious cause with some caution, I suspect the next TNS poll will show things reverting to rather more usual figures.

The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 34%(+2), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 12%(-2), UKIP 8%(-1). Changes are since ICM’s last poll, conducted at the beginning of the Lib Dem conference. The Labour lead is unchanged, with the Conservatives and Labour both up slightly, but not significantly, following their conferences.

The rest of the poll included questions about Ed Miliband’s price freeze for energy bills (61% support the promise, 30% are opposed), Royal Mail privatisation (29% support, 63% oppose) and newspapers publishing details of security service surveillance (58% think papers should back off, 34% think they have a duty to report it. Despite what the Guardian report says about a contrast, there isn’t actually a vast difference from what YouGov found in the Sunday Times – they did find more people opposed to the security services monitoring electronic communications than supporting it, but by 43% to 35% people thought the leaking of information about surveillance was a bad thing).

UPDATE: Tom Newton Dunn at the Sun has also tweeted out tonight’s YouGov figures, which are CON 37%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 10%. The Labour lead of just one point is the smallest YouGov have shown for a couple of weeks, but usual caveats apply – sure, it could be the first sign of a narrowing lead, or it could just be normal variation within the margin of error.

The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is here. Topline voting intention figures are CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, so a five point lead for Labour. The rest of the poll had some questions on social mobility, the security services and Royal Mail privatisation.

32% of people think that society has become more mobile over the last thirty years, 44% that it’s become less mobile. This does not translate into support for universities giving lower entrance requirements to people from deprived backgrounds (34% would support this, 49% would be opposed), nor for an expansion of grammar schools (37% would support this, 21% would support keeping but not expanding grammar schools, 25% oppose them entirely).

Only 19% of people think that the security services have too many surveillance powers, most think their powers are either about right or should be increased. However, in contrast to this 46% think they shouldn’t be allowed to store the details of ordinary people’s communications, 38% think they should. Asked which statement best reflected their views of recent leaks about security service methods, 35% thought the leaks were a good thing that helped hold the security services to account, 43% that it was a bad thing that helped Britain’s enemies.

5% of people say they have applied to buy Royal Mail shares (this is actually quite a bit higher than the figures Vince Cable has reported, but I expect this is largely because of people saying yes when it is actually their spouse or another family member who has applied, and partly because the most disengaged and marginal members of society tend to be under-represented in polls). 21% of people think it is right for the government to sell shares in the Royal Mail, 56% think it is wrong. 43% think it has been sold for less than it is worth.

There is also a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday, which has topline voting intention figures of CON 27%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 18%(+1). Changes are from their previous poll back in August. They also asked about voting intention in the European elections. I think its largely pointless to poll on secondary elections like Europe so far in advance, but for the record the figures are CON 21%, LAB 35%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 22%.