The monthly Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard has topline figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 42%(-1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 9%(nc), GRN 4%(+1). Needless to say, there is no significant change from last month’s figures. Full tables are on MORI’s website here.

Meanwhile this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%. After that brief blip following Cameron’s referendum pledge the YouGov daily poll seems to have settled down around about a 10 point Labour lead again.


This morning’s Times has Ipsos MORI’s quarterly poll on Scottish public opinion. Full details are on the MORI website here.

Holyrood constituency voting intention stands at CON 13%(nc), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), SNP 43%(+3) – changes are from the last MORI poll in October 2012.

Voting intention in the Independence referendum stands at YES 34%(+4), NO 55%(-3).


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The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 29%(-4), LAB 41%(+3), LD 13%(-2), UKIP 9%(+3), changes are from their poll last month.

The 12 point lead is not too dissimilar from what other companies are showing, but ICM normally tend to show smaller Labour leads thanks to the reallocation of some don’t knows to the parties they voted for in 2010 (an adjustment that these days tends to help the Lib Dems and hinder Labour). The trend is the thing to watch… and the trend here shows a sharp movement towards Labour. It’s not something we have seen reflected in other polls over the last couple of days, so usual caveats apply – sure, it could be the first sign of a further swing towards Labour… or it could be normal sample error.

UPDATE: Meanwhile the weekly TNS-BMRB poll has topline figures of CON 31%(+3), LAB 41%(nc), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 10%(-1). No obvious sign of any big swing towards Labour there.


The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up here – topline figures are CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 9%. This week’s poll is very a grab bag of questions on various issues – the most interesting ones (energy & long term care show the usual sort of results) were on smacking and roads.

Over two thirds of parents say they smacked their own children, though there is a clear generational pattern. 78% of those parents who are now over 60 say they smacked their children, more recent parents are less likely to have done so – only 41% of parents under 40 say they have smacked their children. Only 16% parents who smacked their children say it is something they regret having done. Turning to the legal angle, only 17% of people would support making it illegal to smack children, compared to 72% of people who are opposed. There is far less support for corporal punishment in schools – only 40% of people think it should be legalised, 54% think it should be illegal.

Turning to roads, 66% of people say that the government does not spend enough on roads. However, there is relatively little support for actually *raising* more money to spend on roads. Only 18% would support higher taxes to fund road improvements, only 16% would support an annual fee for using motorways to fund road improvements. The highest support was for motorways tolls, which were supported by 35%, but opposed by 53%. Essentially people support the idea of spending more on roads, but aren’t willing to actually pay for it. Asked about the planning system, 45% thought it was important that local councils and residents should be able to block roads that damaged their local area, 30% thought that self-interested councils and residents shouldn’t be able to block road developments that are important for the economy.

Meanwhile, full tables for the Survation poll of Eastleigh are now online here


The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer is out and has topline figures of CON 29%(+1), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 14%(nc). The poll was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, and obviously shows no real change from a fortnight ago.

Still to come tonight we apparently have another poll of Eastleigh, I believe by Survation (at least, I know they were doing fieldwork for an Eastleigh poll earlier this week). Tim Montgomerie has tweeted that there is an Eastleigh poll out tonight showing the Lib Dems a couple of points ahead of the Conservatives, so we’ll have to wait and see if that’s correct.

UPDATE: The Survation Eastleigh poll is now up on their website here. Their published voting intention figures for Eastleigh are CON 33%, LAB 13%, LDEM 36%, UKIP 16%, Others 2%. As with Lord Ashcroft’s poll earlier in the week, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are fighting it out for the top spot, their scores within each other’s margin of error, though Survation have Labour behind UKIP in fourth place. The poll was conducted between Wednesday and Friday