Nadine Dorries is out of “I’m a Celebrity…” and to celebrate Lord Ashcroft has released a poll of her Mid-Bedfordshire constituency. Topline voting intentions in the constituency are CON 51%(-2), LAB 22%(+7), LDEM 14%(-11), UKIP 8%(+3), GRN 4%(+1) – changes are from the general result in 2010.

Opinions of Dorries in her own constituency are not particularly flattering. Asked to rate whether they have a positive or negative view of various politicians on a scale of 0-10, she averages at 2.8, well below Boris Johnson (6.1), David Cameron (5.4), Nick Clegg (4.0), Ed Miliband (4.0) and Nigel Farage (3.5). Only 8% of people in Mid-Bedfordshire rated her above 8/10 on a positively scale.

58% of people disapproved of her decision to go on “I’m a Celebrity…” compared to only 16% who approved. 57% disagreed that she’d be able to get more publicity for the issues she cared about on the show rather than at Westminster, 54% disagreed that donating her MPs salary to charity made up for her absence. On whether or not she was a good MP people were evenly split 35% thought she was, 35% thought she wasn’t. Finally, 58% of people thought the Conservative party were right to suspend her, compared to 26% who thought it was wrong (17% said it should have been left to the local party to decide). Conservative voters were even more hostile – 64% thought it was right to suspend her.

44% of people said they were less likely to vote for her because of her appearance on “I’m a Celebrity…”, only 8% were more likely. Readers will know my reservations over questions like this – lots of the people saying less likely are Labour and Lib Dem voters anyway, so they are hardly lost votes. I’d even take the 44% of Tory voters who said less likely with quite a big pinch of salt, as in the event that Nadine Dorries somehow ends up standing as a Conservative candidate again lots will end up voting on national issues. Those concerns aside, it does suggest that the MP’s decision has gone down very badly in her constituency.

In other news, today’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 10%. That 10% for UKIP is right at the top end of the level of support YouGov have been showing them at and is worth keeping an eye on. At the tail end of last year we also saw an increase in UKIP support when the European summit rose up the media agenda.

The weekly TNS-BMRB poll is out, and has topline figures of CON 31%(nc), LAB 39%(-2), LD 11%(+2), UKIP 7%(-2). Changes are from their last poll a week ago.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun this morning had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%.

All appears to be pretty steady, as it has been for months. Coming up this week though we have the European budget meeting – last year Cameron’s European “veto” temporarily closed the Labour lead in the polls (I suspect largely becuase of the impact of perceptions of Cameron as a strong and effective leader, rather than the particular issues at stake). The media are building this week’s meeting up to a similar test of Cameron, so it will be interesting to see if there is an impact in the polls from it – clearly it can go either way, strong or weak, positive or negative… or indeed, no difference whatsoever, the impact that most things end up having on voting intention! We shall see.

Today there is also a new tranche of polling from Lord Ashcroft, which I hope to have time to look at later but which can meanwhile be viewed here.


The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out already on their website here. The topline figures with changes from last month are CON 32%(-1), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 13%(-1), UKIP 7%(+2).

The UKIP score of 7% is lower than we’ve seen in many online polls, but is actually the highest that ICM have ever had them in their polls for the Guardian, presumably an effect of the coverage from the police elections (the poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday, so after results from the elections had started to appear).

ICM also asked a Best Prime Minister question, finding figures very much in line with the more regular YouGov tracker version of the question. David Cameron leads Ed Miliband by 33% to 25%, with Nick Clegg on 7% and 21% saying none.

The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is online here – topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8% – all very much in line with the usual picture. I haven’t had chance to go through the ad hoc questions, this week covering the BBC and tax avoidance, but there are a couple of interesting findings in the regular trackers.

On the leader ratings David Cameron is on minus 17 (from minus 16 last week), Ed Miliband is on minus 21 (from minus 18 last week). It’s worth noting that both of them seem to have consolidated the increases they got from their party conferences. Prior to the Tory party conference David Cameron’s ratings were pretty consistently in the negative mid-twenties, since the conference they have been pretty steady in the negative mid-to-high teens. Ed Miliband’s ratings pre-conference were also in the negative mid-twenties and while they have declined from the immediate post-conference peak, they seem to be settling in the negative high-teens/low-twenties.

While there does appear to have been a real change in the party leader approval ratings, the same can’t be said for the economic trackers. We saw an increase in the percentage of people thinking their economic circumstances after the GDP figures came out last month and for a brief period the public were the most optimistic they’d been for two years. It has not lasted – the economic trackers are back to the sort of pessimism we saw before the GDP figures. Asked how they see the economy, 38% think things are still getting worse, 35% think things have stopped getting worse, but there is no sign of any recovery, 21% think there are signs of recovery, just 2% think that the economy is on the way to full recovery.

The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror is out tonight. It has topline figures, with changes from their last online poll a month ago, of CON 31%(-2), LAB 43%(+2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 8%(-1). The twelve point lead is the largest ComRes have shown this Parliament in either their online or their phone polls.

The fieldwork was done between Wednesday and Friday, so most of it would have been finished before the results of Thursday’s election. It is too early to expect any impact from them in the polls. Normal caveats about the poll apply anyway: sure, it could be the sign of a further shift to Labour, but equally it could be normal variation within the margin of error.

UPDATE: Tonight we also have the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer. Their topline figures, with changes from a fortnight ago, are CON 32%(+2), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 8%(-1).