Or perhaps more accurately, a round up of polling bits and bobs that I’ve missed over the last week or two!

The BBC

There has been various polling on the BBC and the Jimmy Savile affair, most of it generally damning. Of particular note though is this poll from ComRes, who rather than asking whether the scandal had changed respondents’ opinions managed to dig out some questions from a poll they did for Newsnight back in 2009 to repeat. 62% of people agreed that the BBC was an institution we should be proud of, down from 76% in 2009. 45% of people thought the BBC was trustworthy, down from 62% in 2009. Obviously with a three year space we cannot assume that the drop is linked in anyway to the Savile affair, there could be many causes over the last three years, but either way it is a sharp drop in public regard of the BBC.

Scotland

There have been several polls on Scottish Independence over the last month. I mentioned the Ipsos MORI quarterly Scottish monitor, but there have also been polls by Panelbase (who are a member of the British Polling Council, but seem to be far from pro-active when it comes to publishing tables! Thanks to Roger Mexico for finally wringing some tabs from them) and two from YouGov that had referendum questions, one for the Better Together campaign and one for The Courier.

Ipsos MORI/Times (amongst those certain to vote) – YES 30%, NO 58%, DK 12%
Panelbase/Sunday Times (amongst those likely to vote in Scot Parliament elections) – YES 37%, NO 45%, DK 17%
YouGov/Better Together (all voters) – YES 30%, NO 56%, DK/WNV 14%
YouGov/The Courier (all voters?) – YES 29%, NO 55%, DK 14%

Party leaders

As well as voting intention this month’s Ipsos MORI poll included their tracker on whether people like the the main parties, the party leader, both or neither, a question I’ve written about in the past. 41% of people say they like David Cameron, down from 47% when MORI last asked the question in January 2011. In comparison 35% of people like the Conservative party (down marginally from 37%), meaning that David Cameron is still a positive for his party, out performing them by 6 points (down from a 9 point advantage in 2011). In comparison 37% of people like Ed Miliband, hardly changed from the 36% who liked him in 2011. 51% of people like the Labour party, up more substantially from 45% in 2011. This means Miliband trails behind the Labour party by 14 points (up from an 11 point gap in 2011).

Police Commissioner elections

Also from Ipsos MORI was this curious poll of voting intentions in the Police Commissioner elections. The quoted headline figures were Lab 16%, Con 8%, LD 4%, Others 3%, Independent candidates 30%, Wouldn’t vote 27%, Don’t know 11%. MORI normally take the approach of only including respondents who say they are 10/10 certain to vote, but in this case only 15% of people said they were certain to vote, and a sample size of about 150 people would be of no use to man nor beast.

I am dubious about the results anyway – polling contests where there are lots of independent candidates who may, or may not, have a chance of doing well is a difficult task. People invariably tell pollsters that they would like to vote for Independent candidates, and invariably fail to do so when actually given the chance – if you just put on a generic “A candidate that is not representing a political party” people tend to imagine some idealised Independent candidate who agrees with them, rather than the somewhat idiosyncratic sorts who actually stand as independents. Time will tell, but I sincerely doubt that independent candidates will get 50% of the poll in the police elections. Given the limited number of constituencies and the uneven pattern of parties contesting them, I think this may be a contest that would be best polled by asking people which county they live in and giving them a list of the actual local candidates to choose from. The expected low turnout however still makes it a tricky challenge to poll.


TNS BMRB’s weekly poll is out this morning with topline figures of CON 31%(+1), LAB 42%(-2), LDEM 11%(+3), UKIP 8%(+1), Others 8%. Changes are from last week and don’t show any significant movement.

Meanwhile this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, so right back to the normal YouGov Labour lead of ten points or so. While there is no obvious ims with the Sunday Times poll the regular economic trackers did show some significant movement following the GDP figures – most notably on the proportion of people who thought the government’s cuts were good or bad for the economy (36% thought they were good for the economy, up 4; 42% thought they were bad for the economy, down 9).


ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 33%(-2), LAB 44%(+6), LDEM 12%(-3). Changes are from ComRes’s previous telephone poll, which was conducted straight after the Liberal Democrat conference and, as you may remember, showed Labour dropping 4 points to a rather incongruous 3 point lead. In contrast this poll equals the biggest Labour lead ComRes have shown since the election, last seen in July this year.

The poll was conducted over the weekend, so after the GDP figures, suggesting no positive economic effect on government support here.


The weekly YouGov results for the Sunday Times are now online here, mostly covering the BBC and Jimmy Savile, topics which I’ll leave to another day. Topline voting intention results are CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. The seven point Labour lead is lower than YouGov normally show, but not by so much that it couldn’t be just normal sample variation.

There does appear to be some impact from the end of the recession though – there are very significant shifts on many of the economy trackers. 36% of people think that the government is managing the economy well, up 5 points from last week and their highest score since before the budget. Overall perceptions of the economy remain dire of course… but are less dire than they have been for a long time. 64% think the economy is in a bad state, the lowest since the general election. The feel good factor (the proportion of people who expect their financial situation to get better in the next 12 months minus those who think it will get worse) is up to minus 34, its highest since May 2010.

It may be a very short term effect from the good economic news, and made fade away again in coming weeks, but right now people are less pessimistic about the economy than they have been for 2 years. With that said, the large majority of people still expect the economic troubles to last a long time – 58% expect them to last another three years or more.


Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has now been published. Topline figures with changes from their last poll in mid-September, before conference season, are CON 33%(+3), LAB 43%(+2), LDEM 9%(-4), UKIP 6%. The Labour lead remains pretty steady at around ten points, again roughly the same sort of Labour leads MORI have been showing since May.

Part leader satisfaction ratings are Cameron minus 29 (from minus 24 last month), Miliband minus 12 (from minus 9 last month), Clegg minus 45 (from minus 43 last month).