Two quick topical questions from YouGov’s daily polling over the last couple of days. First, after David Gauke’s comments yesterday YouGov asked if people thought it actually was morally acceptable to pay tradesmen “cash in hand”. 49% of respondents said it was morally acceptable to pay “cash in hand”, 36% thought it was not.

Secondly, ahead of the (now cancelled!) strike by border, immigration and other Home Office staff YouGov asked whether people thought it was or was not acceptable for PCS staff to go on strike around the time of the Olympics. 64% of people said striking at the time of the Olympics would have been unacceptable, 24% said it would have been acceptable.

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%, remaining steadily within the margin of error of the 9-10 point Labour leads that YouGov have now been showing for a good month. We are now on the verge of the Summer silly season when political news largely stops. This week, of course, we have the latest news of charges from the phone hacking investigation but come Friday the news agenda will be dominated by the Olympics for weeks and I would expect political activity to ground to a halt.

That said, I remember saying pretty much the same thing a year ago before the riots broke out, so no doubt now I have typed this events will again conspire to prove me wrong!


The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian has been published here, and has topline figures of CON 34%(nc), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 14%(nc), Others 13%(nc) – no change whatsoever in the main topline voting intention figures. The breakdown for other parties was SNP 3%, Plaid 1%, Green 4%, UKIP 4%, BNP 1%

On economic trust 40% of people said they trusted David Cameron & George Osborne more, 29% said they trusted Ed Miliband and Ed Balls more, an 11 point lead for the Conservative team that is not significantly different from the 9 point lead ICM registered a month ago, but is still substantially below the sort of lead they had pre-budget.

ICM also asked how people would vote if Tony Blair was Labour leader, and found a slightly smaller Labour lead, with the Conservatives on 34%, Labour on 36% and the Lib Dems on 15%.

The full tables for the weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll are now online here, this week concentrating on George Osborne and the Olympics. Topline figures are, as mentioned in yesterday’s update, CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 7%. On the regular leader trackers Cameron is at minus 23 (from minus 25 last week), Miliband at minus 20 (from minus 21 last week), Clegg at minus 53 (from minus 59) – slight recovery from Clegg from his worst ever figures last week, but otherwise steady.

George Osborne’s ratings remain very low – only 15% of people say he is doing a good job compared to 55% a bad job. Asked if he should stay in his role 20% of people think he should stay Chancellor, 48% think he should be replaced – very similar figures to those in the ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday. Naturally a large chunk of this is Labour supporters, but even amongst Conservative voters only 48% think he should stay with 26% wanting him replaced. Asked who should replace him 47% of people say don’t know, indicating the relative lack of public awareness of most of the candidates. Vince Cable comes top with 22% (and is the most popular choice amongst Labour and Lib Dem voters), followed by William Hague on 16% (the most popular choice amongst Tories).

Confidence in the government on the economy has dropped since January – back then 38% said they had confidence in Cameron & the government to steer the country out of the economic crisis, that has now dropped to 33%. Over the same time period there has also been a turnaround in opinion on the deficit: back in March 38% thought the deficit should remain the priority with 34% saying the government should switch to a growth strategy. That has since gradually turned around with today’s figures showing 31% thinking the deficit should remain the priority, 43% supporting a switch to a growth strategy.

Turning to the Olympic questions, 44% of people say they are interested in the Olympics and 37% the Paralympics. 15% of people say they will be watching as much as possible of the Games, 29% that they will be watching the sports they are interested in. 20% of people say they will be doing their best to avoid watching the Games at all. 53% think they will be a success, 26% think they will not (a very slight fall since we last asked in May – back then 55% thought they would be a success, 22% did not). Asked whether, with hindsight, we were right to bid for the Games people are now evenly split – 44% say we were, 44% say we were not.

There are are also split opinions on how well the Games have been prepared for – 45% think they have been handled well, 47% badly. There is a lack of confidence that the transport system will be able to cope (only 25% have a lot/fair amount of confidence), and people are divided over whether they have confidence in the security provision – 45% say they do, 48% do not. On the specific issue of the lack of security guards, a majority (61%) of people think this is mostly the fault of G4S.

ComRes’s monthly online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out, with topline figures of CON 32%(nc), LAB 42%(nc), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 9%(+1). Changes are from the last online ComRes poll a month ago and clearly show no significant change in support.

The Independent on Sunday seem to be going on the finding that respondents agreed with a statement that George Osborne should be replaced by 44% to 20% disagreeing, with 36% saying don’t know.

My reservations about whether it is appropriate to ask questions like this as agree/disagree statements have been well rehearsed, but in this case the figures seem broadly in line with other findings showing people would like Osborne replaced. YouGov asked whether Osborne should remain Chancellor or be replaced three weeks ago and found a similar sort of picture – 24% wanted him to stay, 45% wanted him replaced, 31% didn’t know. In a more nuanced question earlier this month Populus found 15% thinking Osborne was doing a good job and should stay, 31% thinking he should be doing better but should stay and 38% thinking he should be replaced. All three polls found about 1 in 5 Tory voters thought that Osborne should be replaced.

UPDATE: Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 7%. As usual I will update properly tomorrow morning once the tables are published.