This week’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6%. The nine point lead is very much in line with the average Labour leads of ten points or so that YouGov have been showing for the last fortnight.

Tonight we are also due a new ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph using their “wisdom index” (that is, averaging people’s predictions for the shares of the vote if there was an election tomorrow, rather than asking how people would vote in an election tomorrow). I’m not online tonight and haven’t seen the figures yet, so feel free to discuss them here.

As usual, I’ll do a proper post sometime tomorrow.

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 43%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 7%, so back to a Labour lead far more typical of YouGov’s recent polling than the fourteen point lead last night.

There is also a new Opinium poll out today, which also gives Labour an eleven point lead. Opinium’s full topline figures are CON 31%(nc), LAB 42%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 9%(+1). Changes are from Opinium’s last poll a fortnight ago and show no significant change.


Tonight’s YouGov figures for the Sun are CON 31%, LAB 45%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. Labour’s lead is back up to fourteen points, although that’s not necessarily any more meaningful than the unusually low eight point lead we had yesterday. As ever, be wary of big shifts in polls as more often than not they turn out to be just random sample error.

I also missed Ipsos MORI’s regular Scottish monitor yesterday. That had voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament constituency vote of CON 12%(-1), LAB 32%(+9), LDEM 6%(-4), SNP 45%(-4). Changes are since January.

With the proposed legislation being published today YouGov have released some polling on House of Lords reform – full tabs are here. Overall, people support the House of Lords being replaced by an elected chamber. 44% would prefer an mostly elected chamber, 32% a mixed elected and appointed chamber, 11% a chamber that was mostly appointed.

Asked specifically about the proposal to make the Lords 80% elected, 31% said this did not go far enough and the Lords should be entirely elected, 34% that the balance was about right, 10% that there should be a smaller elected element and 11% that there should be no elected element to the Lords.

However, as we’ve seen before, public opinion is more complicated than just support or oppose. Just because people support an issue, it doesn’t mean they necessarily care much about it or consider it to be an important priority. Asked whether reforming the Lords should a priority, only 18% of people said it was vital to reform the Lords and that it should be a priority. 52% of people said that while it was good idea, it should not be a priority at the moment given Britain’s other problems. 20% said the Lords works reasonably well and should be left alone.

Asked if there should be a referendum on the future of the Lords 55% of people said yes, 26% no. Don’t run away with the idea that there is a massive public demand for a referendum though – as I’ve written before, whatever the subject people nearly always say they would support a referendum if asked, as it is the equivalent of asking “would you like a say on this, or should politicians decide for you?”. The only exception I’ve narrowed down is whether there should be a referendum on the monarchy, which people don’t support.

UPDATE: The House of Lords Bill has now been published, and provides for a Lords with 90 members appointed by an independent commission, 12 bishops and 360 elected on a regional basis by PR (open party list). Lords would be a elected for 15 years, elected by thirds on the same day as General elections.

For what it’s worth, by my reckoning if we had a House of Lords like this at the moment, and assuming people voted the same way in Lords elections as in Commons elections on the same day (a big assumption – they almost certainly wouldn’t), the current elected make up of the Lords would be CON 128, LAB 141, LDEM 74, SNP 6, PC 2, Northern Ireland parties 9.

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 11%, Others 13% (including UKIP on 7%) – the Labour lead is down to 8 points, but is still well within the margin of error of the ten point lead that YouGov have been showing for the last week or so.

Earlier on today YouGov also released polling conducted yesterday on some of the welfare changes David Cameron floated in his speech yesterday. 53% of respondents said they suppoted withdrawing housing benefit from the great majority of people under the age of 25, with 37% opposed. 59% of people supported reducing benefits for families with three or more children, 30% were opposed.

UPDATE: The YouGov poll today also covers attitudes towards reform of the House of Lords. The @Sun_Politics team have already tweeted some results: 76% people think the Lords should be partially or wholly elected, but in a separate question, 52% said reforming the Lords should not be a priority now. Full results will be up tomorrow morning.