Full tables for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are now up here. On the regular trackers David Cameron is at minus 23 (from minus 26 last week), Ed Miliband minus 46 (from minus 44), Nick Clegg at minus 55 (from minis 54). The government’s continuing troubles don’t seem to have damaged David Cameron any further since last week, but to put it in context he was at around minus ten for the eight months or so before March, so neither has he recovered significantly.

Asked a slightly different way George Osborne has a approval rating of minus 40 – down from minus 31 at the time of the budget. Opinions of the budget itself have also become ever more negative – only 13% now think it will be good for the economy, 43% think it will be bad. More broadly, 27% of people thought that government had been doing well but has lost its way in recent weeks (14% think it hasn’t, 45% think it was doing badly in the first place). Of those, 33% blame George Osborne the most, followed by David Cameron on 23%.

Turning to the issue of Abu Qatada and human rights 70% think that the ECHR has too much power, and 77% would prefer the final ruling on Human Rights cases to be made in the UK. On the specifics of Qatada himself, 81% would like to see him deported now regardless of any appeal, 14% think he should be allowed to stay while his appeal is heard. Only 28% think Theresa May has handled the issue well, 54% think she has handled it badly.

Moving onto the proposed strikes by fuel tanker drivers and tube workers the public have little sympathy for either, a majority of people are opposed to the strike action by fuel tanker drivers (by 56% to 25%) and tube workers (by 53% to 22%). However, while these specific strikes don’t carry public support there is little support for strike bans for either group. Given a list of professions, a majority of people tend to support their right to strike – the only professions we asked about that people think should not be able to strike are police officers, firefighters and doctors.

Finally there were a series of questions on education. Respondents thought reading and writing was taught well in schools by 53% to 37% badly, on maths the figures are 50% well to 40% badly. Parents who actually have school age children were significantly more positive, with 73% thinking reading and writing is currently taught well, 72% thinking maths is. Despite this broad approval of current teaching standards, 60% also say that teaching standards are not demanding enough (47% of parents of school-age children would). 67% of people (61% of parents) would support keeping children back a year if they do not make progress, 64% of people (61% of parents) would support stopping child benefit for parents whose children persistently truant.

As well as the normal weekly poll, YouGov also has a French poll in the Sunday Times, conducted ahead of today’s general election. YouGov have Hollande ahead on 30%, Sarkozy on 26%, Le Pen on 15%, Melenchon on 14% and the various others on 15%. This is a bigger lead for Hollande than some of the other final polls, which have shown between a 3.5 point lead for Hollande (BVA and Ipsos) and the two main contenders equal on 27% (Ifop and TNS).

Overall, the final polls have Hollande between 27%-30%, Sarkozy between 25%-27%, Le Pen between 14%-17%, Melenchon between 12%-14.5%.

YouGov’s weekly poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 41%, LDEM 11%, Others 15% (including UKIP on 8%). The thirteen point Labour lead yesterday looks as thought it was a bit of an outlier – my impression is that the underlying figure in YouGov’s daily polls is a Labour lead of around about 10 points.

As usual, I’ll do a fuller report tomorrow when YouGov’s tables are published.


ComRes’s monthly online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out, and has topline figures of CON 34%(-3), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 11%(+1), Others 15%(+2) (including UKIP on 6%). Changes are from ComRes’s last online poll, conducted prior to the budget. The Labour lead is smaller than the bigger leads we saw from YouGov, Populus, Angus Reid and TNS-BMRB this week, but the trend is the same – the Conservatives losing support and falling into the low 30s.

For methodology anoraks, on the straight voting intention question UKIP and the Lib Dems were actually level on around about 9% each. The difference in ComRes’s final figures comes firstly from the squeeze question that ComRes asks people who say don’t know (respondents to that were much more likely to say Lib Dem than UKIP), and weighting by likelihood to vote (in their online polls ComRes only include supporters of minor parties when they say they are 10/10 certain to vote, but include Con, Lab & Lib Dem voters who say they are 5/10 or more likely to vote).

I’m out tonight, so this post is written in advance, but tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 45%, LDEM 8% and Others 16% (UKIP are on 7%). A thirteen point Labour lead is the largest any pollster has shown since the election-that-never-was in 2007 and the largest YouGov have shown since they started regular polling in 2002.

Normal caveats apply of course, this week so far we’ve had YouGov poll showing Labour leads of between 9 and 11 points (and Populus, TNS and Angus Reid leads of 9,10 and 12), so a thirteen point lead would not be out of line with an underlying picture of a Labour lead of 10-11 points.

The TNS-BMRB London poll I mentioned briefly yesterday now has tables up on their website here. Re-percentaged to exclude don’t knows and wouldn’t votes, first round preferences work out at roughly JOHNSON 45%, LIVINGSTONE 35%, PADDICK 11%, JONES 5%, WEBB 2%, CORTIGLIA 1% (There is no line in the tables for Siobhan Benita, I don’t know if no one picked her, or if she was omitted).

A slightly higher level of support for Paddick and a bigger lead for Boris than we’ve seen elsewhere on the first round figures, but after reallocation of second preferences and filtered by likelihood to vote, BMRB-TNS’s formal topline figures work out at JOHNSON 53%, LIVINGSTONE 47% – exactly the same as ComRes and YouGov’s last London polls.