Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%. While the boost that the Conservatives received from David Cameron’s veto appears to have declined somewhat from the Conservative leads we briefly saw last week, it doesn’t look like it’s vanished completely.
Tomorrow night’s YouGov poll is the last daily poll before the Xmas break, and while we may or may not also get an ICM/Guardian poll this month, we really won’t know for certain what the position is until next year (and even if the Tories are still enjoying a veto bounce now, it may well have vanished by January!)
Also published today are new voting intention figures from TNS-BMRB. Topline figures with changes from their previous poll at the end of November are CON 35%(-1), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 11%(+2), Others 16%.
No obvious sign of any veto boost for the Conservatives here. The poll was conducted over the weekend, so it looks as though the veto boost may have subsided by the time the fieldwork began.
Populus’ monthly poll for the Times is out this morning after all (but given two and a half inches on page 14). Topline figures with changes from last month are CON 35%(+2), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 12%(-1), Others 15%. Populus show a move towards the Tories, but no Tory lead – instead we have the sort of four point Labour lead that was the norm prior to the veto.
Populus’s last two polls had eight point Labour leads, which looked rather incongruous at the time, so the Tory increase here may be something of a reversion to the mean..
Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. We are back to a four point Labour lead, and it looks as though the Conservative veto boost has indeed begun to fade away. The full tabs for the Sun also have the regular questions on leader perceptions, which show the boost Cameron recieved in his own ratings also beginning to fade.
I was expecting the monthly Populus poll for the Times to appear tonight as well, as I understand the fieldwork was done over the weekend, but so far nothing has appeared on their website. Perhaps it will be in Wednesday’s paper.
I am out tonight, so won’t be updating the blog until later. Due tonight we will have the daily YouGov poll for the Sun, and I am expecting Populus’s monthly poll for the Times. We have also yet to see anything from ICM for the Guardian this month.
I’ll update later when I return.
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