Today’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%. The three point Labour lead is very much in line with the leads of four points or so that we’ve seen since the conference season ended, so the figures are largely unremarkable (though there is an absence of any Fox effect so far – not that I’d necessarily predict any).

Most of the other questions in the poll were Fox related, and hence are rather out of date (the perils of polling in a rapid news cycle). For the record, the proportion of people who thought Fox should resign had risen to 58% from 54% in the week, and more notably, Conservative voters themselves thought Fox should go by 48% to 30%. Other questions mostly produced answers critical to Fox. The most interesting one in my mind (if only because the result was the least predictable) was whether or not people trusted Sir Gus O’Donnell to carry out a rigorous and unbaised investigation – 36% of people did, 37% did not.

Apart from Fox there were some questions on unemployment, where people overwhelmingly think the government are doing badly (by 77% to 15%), on organ donation (52% support the idea of paying the funeral expenses for people who donate organs after death, but only 38% support general payments to people for donating organs), and what people would do if they won the lottery. Full tabs here.

The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 37%(-1), LAB 39%(+1), LDEM 10%(-1), Others 14%. Changes are from the last online ComRes poll in mid-September. No significant change there from conference season (or the Liam Fox kerfuffle, though the poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday).

The rest of the poll is the normal Independent fare of agree/disagree statements. The most interesting ones are probably those that are trends. ComRes asked if people agreed with the statement “Scotland should be an independent country”, and found people pretty evenly divided, 39% agreeing, 38% disagreeing.

The ComRes press release, which John Rentoul largely echoes here, says “Scottish independence, now backed by majorities in both Scotland and the rest of the UK”. This is somewhat over-egging the pudding, given the overall UK split is so close, the Scottish sub-sample is only 146 people so shouldn’t be given much weight, and if you take out Scottish respondents from the poll, the “rest of the UK (sic)” don’t actually seen to have a plurality in favour of Scottish independence – it is even stevens! Still, what is notable is the rise in support since the last time ComRes asked it in May 2011, when people disagreed with the statement by 42% to 33%.


Today the Scottish Boundary Commission have published their provisional recommendations for the new Westminster boundaries, available on their website here. Scotland will lose 7 MPs as part of the reduction from 650 to 600 members of Parliament.

The FT have a rough and ready attempt at working out the impact here, currently just assuming party support is evenly distributed within each seat. On that basis, the Conservatives lose their seat, the Lib Dems lose 3 and Labour lose 3. Of course, as the FT themselves are the first to admit, that’s a very crude analysis, but it will probably take me a while to crunch the figures for better notional projections, given the number of wards currently split between constituencies.

Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. This is the first 6 point lead YouGov have shown for a week, but it well within the margin of error of the four point leads we’ve seen of late.

This morning’s Sun also had the results of YouGov polling on Liam Fox – 19% of people thought Fox should keep his job, but 54% thought he should go. Unsurprisingly Labour supporters thought he should go (supporters of opposing parties normally do!), but notably even amongst Conservative voters the balance was against Fox, by 41% to 36% Tory voters thought he should leave his job.

Tonight’s YouGov/Sun has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%. In the last week YouGov’s daily poll seems to have pretty much settled down at around a four point Labour lead, with the Conservatives at 37-38, Labour at 41-42, the Lib Dems between 8-10.