There are two new polls out tonight. First up, the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, Others 13%. A two point Labour lead is low by YouGov’s recent standards, but not out of line with an underlying average of four points or so.

Secondly there is the monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent. Topline figures there, with changes from ComRes’s last phone poll a month ago, are CON 34%(-3), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 14%(+2), Others 14%. That’s a movement towards Labour, but will to some extent be a reversion to the mean after ComRes’s last phone poll showed a rather unusual Conservative lead. Perhaps more interesting is the 14% for the Lib Dems – their highest score with ComRes since May.


The full tables for the Sunday Times poll are now up here – as already mentioned last night, the topline figures are CON 36%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, Others 16%. The “others” include UKIP at 7%, a figure they also hit once during the week for the Sun, so they certainly seemed to have recieved at least a temporary boost from the issue of Europe returning to the agenda.

Economic optimism remains extremely low. 9% of people expect their financial situation to get better over the next year compared to 57% who expect it to get worse, a net “feel good factor” of minus 48. While this is extremely negative historically, it is fairly typical of 2011 so far, and actually an improvement from the last few weeks when it has been below minus 50. Hardly anyone (3%) expects the present economic problems to be over within a year, 21% think they will pass in the next one or two years, 32% expect them to last three or four years, 24% expect them to last five to ten years.

The bulk of the poll is questions on Europe. Only 5% of people think that Britain has a lot of influence in the EU, 32% think Britain has a little influence, 41% not a lot and 15% none. 34% of people think that Britain has less influence than we did under Tony Blair and 45% think we have less influence than under Thatcher.

41% of respondents thought that Britain would be better off if we left the EU, 29% think we would be worse off and 30% neither or don’t know – a familar pattern of Euroscepticism. 41% of people think that David Cameron should use the current problems in the EU as an opportunity to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with Europe, 27% think Cameron should wait until the present crisis has passed to renegotiate, 15% think no renegotiation is needed. 59% of people think that Conservative rebels were right to vote for a referendum, compared to 22% who think they were wrong.

On the wider Eurozone crisis people are evenly split about whether the EU should be attempting to save the Eurozone – 36% think it is right to spend money on trying to save it, 39% think it is wrong. A majority, however, think that countries like Greece who are unable to pay their debts should be made to leave. Respondents do have considerable confidence in Angela Merkel to make the necessarily decisions to solve the crisis – 56% of people said they had a lot or a little confidence in her, compared to 36% who have confidence in Nicholas Sarkozy and just 8% for Silvio Berlusconi.

82% of people think it is important for Britain’s economy that the crisis in the Eurozone is solved. However, a good majority people remain opposed to Britain contributing money to any Eurozone bailout – only 24% think Britain should contribute, with 58% opposed.

Turning to the employment questions, 38% of people would back laws making it easier to sack unproductive workers. 19% think that workers’ rights are not protected enough and there should be greater protection from dismissal, 31% think the current balance is about right.

On maternity and paternity leave, 39% think current maternity provision is about right, 29% think it is too generous and 18% not generous enough. 31% think paternity provision is about right, 24% too generous and 31% not generous enough. Men are more likely than women to think that both maternity and paternity leave is too generous.

On staying at home to look after children, very similar proportions of men and women would stay at home to look after their children if their partner earned enough. 65% of men with children and 62% of women with children said they would stay at home to look after the children. However, attitudes are different when we asked about respondents’ spouses – 82% of men would be happy for their spouse or partner to stay at home and look after the children, however only 56% of women would be happy for their spouse/partner to stay at home.

On the Royal questions, 76% of people supporting giving female children equal rights to succeed to the throne with only 13% opposed. There was less support for ending the ban on a Catholic becoming monarch – 48% thought it should be allowed, 33% thought it should not.

Finally on the London protests, while people are sympathetic to the aims of the protestors, they would tend to support legal action to remove them from outside St Pauls. 39% say they support the aims of the protesters, 26% do not and 35% are unsure. 47%, however, would support legal action to remove them with 39% opposed. 53% of people think St Paul’s Cathedral was wrong to close its doors (31% think they were right), while 42% of people think that Giles Fraser was wrong to resign (31% think he was right).


Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8% and others on 16%. It looks likely that the 7 point lead in the YouGov/Sun poll on Thursday night was indeed a bit of an outlier. As usual I will do a full write up tomorrow when the tables are published.


Last night’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9% (full tabs are here). Seven points is the biggest Labour lead since September. I’ll add my usual caveats about not over-interpreting small movements in polls – this could be a knock in government support from the infighting over Europe, or could just be normal margin of error.


Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out today, full details here. Topline voting intention figures with changes since last month are CON 34%(-1), LAB 38%(+1), LDEM 12%(-1), so no significant change on a month ago.

There’s an interesting finding in the questions – MORI asked people how much they had worried about various things in the last two or three weeks, a repeat of a question from earlier on in the economic downturn in February 2009. The proportion of people who said they’d worried about paying their bills hadn’t changed massively (in 2009 32% had, 66% had not. Now 37% had, 60% had not).

There was a much bigger shift in longer term worries though, people worrying about their retirement, or their children’s future. In 2009, 21% of people said they’d worried about their retirement in the last few weeks with 60% saying they hadn’t. The figures now are 34% had (up 13), and 41% hadn’t (down 19). Similarly, in 2009 26% of people said they had recently worried about their children’s job prospects, 55% had not. Those figures have now shifted to 35% who have worried, 38% have not.