I’ve been laid low with the dreaded lurgi, hence sparse posting over the last few days. Tonight’s YouGov figures are CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%. Will hopefully be back in the saddle soon!

Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. More interesting is the Alternative Vote tracker – on the bare referendum question, weighted by likelihood to vote, YouGov are now showing a lead for the NO campaign. Yes are on 37%, No are on 44%. This is the first time that YouGov’s bare referendum question has shown the No campaign ahead.

I will add my normal caveat about sharp changes in polling – until it is supported by other polls it could always turn out to be an outlier – but the trend appears towards the NO campaign, and this poll follows the Populus poll earlier this month that also showed No ahead in a poll without explanation of the systems (albeit, in a poll using the wrong referendum wording!), and the most recent ComRes AV poll last month which also showed NO moving ahead. Of recent polls, only Angus Reid continues to show a YES lead, though all companies show YES and NO relatively close.

YouGov also reasked the prompted version of the question they’ve asked since last Summer (to different samples, obviously) and found Yes on 33%, No on 45%. As with the Populus version of the questions, the large gap between prompted and unprompted qestions seems to be fading – presumably because respondents to the question are now more likely to have their own understanding of what FPTP and AV consist of.


After I’d given up and decided it wasn’t coming after all, the Times’s monthly Populus poll did appear after all last night.

Topline figures are CON 36%(+1), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 11%(nc) – so no significant change from last month. Populus and ICM tend to show marginally smaller Labour leads than other companies because of their reallocation of don’t knows, which these days tends to work against Labour.

Meanwhile YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun yesterday had topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%.

There is a new Angus Reid voting intention poll out, topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 42%, LDEM 11%, Others 16%. This is the lowest figure any company has shown for the Conservatives since the height of Cleggmania last year, but Angus Reid have been showing consistently lower levels of support for the Conservatives than other pollsters anyway. So far the only other companies to put the Conservatives below 35% are a single Opinium poll showing them at 34% at the end of March, and a couple of YouGov’s daily polls in early March when they briefly dropped to 33/34% before recovering.

The difference would appear to be connected to a higher score for “other” parties – this is something we also saw during the last Parliament, when newer online companies like Angus Reid, Opinium and Harris tended to show significantly higher levels of support for “other” parties. Harris aren’t conducting regular polls at the moment, but we are certainly seeing the same pattern reappearing with Angus Reid and Opinium (though it seem to have different knock on effects – Angus Reid are showing higher “others” and lower Conservatives. Opinium are showing higher “others” and lower Labour.) I’ve never been able to come up with an obvious explanation of why newer online companies would produce higher “other” scores than phone pollsters or YouGov.

The normal YouGov/Sun poll will be out later tonight at 10pm. We are also overdue the monthly Populus telephone poll for the Times, though perhaps their online AV poll earlier this month was instead rather than in addition too.

The full tables for YouGov’s Sunday Times poll are now up here. Latest voting intention in the AV referendum is YES 39%, NO 38%, Don’t know 22%, so still essentially neck and neck (if it hadn’t been weighted by likelihood to vote, it would have been exactly neck and neck)

On Libya it’s pretty even on whether people think military action is right or wrong – 40% think it’s right, 39% think it’s wrong – we’ve seen this bounce back and forth between being in favour and against over the last few days, suggesting the underlying position is now people pretty evenly divided. For the first time more people think the military action is going badly (38%) than think it is going well (35%) – there has been a strong downwards trend on this question over the last fortnight, at the start of which the proportion of people thinking it was going well was up in the high fifties.

Moving to health, YouGov asked how much people trusted Ed Miliband, David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Andrew Lansley on health. Ed Miliband was narrowly the most trusted: 39% trusted him a lot or a little, followed by David Cameron who 36% of people trusted a lot or a little. Compare this with Andrew Lansley – who is only trusted by 17% of people (even amongst Tory voters, only 41% trust him on the NHS).

27% of people say they support the NHS proposals, compared to 52% who oppose them. Asked what should be done next 34% think they should be abandoned, 47% say the government should change them to address people’s concerns (including the overwhelming majority of Conservative supporters), only 3% think they should continue as they are.

On interns, the perception is that companies are benefitting rather more than the interns themselves (33% think it benefits companies more, 14% interns more, 44% both equally) – however people to tend to agree with the argument that internships allow an unfair advantage to children of parents with good contacts or enough money to work for free. 65% would support some sort of regulation.

Asked about whether various professions are more about what you know, or who you know, politics is overwhelmingly seen as being about who you know, not what you know (by 76% to 8%). That’s followed by journalism (56% who you know, 21% what you know) and acting (55% who you know, 22% what you know). Accountancy and medicine are seen are more meritocratic – 59% think progression in accountancy is about what you know, 20% who you know, 71% think medicine is more about what you know, only 11% who you know. People were pretty evenly split on their view of the legal profession.

Finally on the Royal Wedding 3% will be attending a street party, 2% going to London to see it, 35% will be watching on the telly… 35% will be trying their best to ignore it.