There are two voting intention polls tonight. First YouGov’s daily polling has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 43%, LDEM 10%. A seven point Labour lead is very much in line with YouGov’s recent polls showing a Labour lead of 6 or so.

Second is ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent. Topline figures there, with changes from their last telephone poll a month ago, are CON 35%(+1), LAB 39%(-4), LDEM 12%(+2), Others 14% – a reduction in Labour’s lead.

Polls tonight

I’m at a meeting tonight, but there should be two or three new polls to discuss. First there is the regular YouGov/Sun poll at 10pm. Secondly the full results for the Populus poll for the Searchlight Educational Trust, covering issues like the far right and attitudes to immigration and nationality, which has got quite a lot of coverage in the last day or two, is actually being put up on their website here at 9 o’clock.

Finally – and unconfirmed at the moment – if ComRes stick to their normal timetables we should get their monthly telephone poll for the Independent tonight. Last month they were showing a nine point Labour lead (34, 43, 10).

I’m not around, but as ever feel free to use this thread to discuss the polls as they appear.


The full tables for the YouGov Sunday Times poll are now available here.

The biggest chnk of questions were about Libya. 54% of people think that the government have responded badly to the situation in Libya, 59% think they have performed badly in protecting the safety of British citizens in Libya.

Asked about responses to the situation, 55% would support freezing Libyan assets in British banks. Only 21% though would support offering asylum to refugees fleeing from the country. On Gaddafi’s own fate, a majority (54%) think he should be tried by the International Criminal Court if overthrown, 24% that a new Libyan regime should try him. People were evenly split on whether a new regime would be justified in executing him – 35% think it would be justifed, 32% think it would not.

YouGov then asked some questions about Britain’s past relationship with Libya, in particular the attempts to normalise relationships over the last ten years. 40% think re-establishing positive diplomatic relations was the right thing to do, with 35% disagreeing. There is a similar split over trade links – 38% think it was right, 34% wrong. On some specifics, the majority (51%) of people thought it was right that British companies had invested in oil extraction in Libya, with only 21% objecting. However, only 7% thought it was right to have sold arms to Libya with 76% thinking it was wrong (later on the poll also asked if David Cameron was right to take representatives of arms companies on his Middle East tour – 62% thought it was wrong).

Summing it up, 45% think it was right that Britain tried to encourage a more positive relationship with Libya in the hope of encouraging reform, even if it ultimately failed. 39% thought it was wrong for Britain to have done deals with such a regime. There was no real party angle to this – answers were much the same for each party split, and most people think the Conservatives would have done exactly the same as Labour had they been in power at the time.

Finally on Libya, YouGov asked if Britain should request the return of Abdelbaset al-Megrahi from any new Libyan regime. People were exactly split – 39% thought we should, 39% think we shouldn’t.

Scottish YouGov poll

There is a new YouGov poll of Scottish Parliamentary voting intentions tonight, commissioned by the Scottish Greens and YouGov’s first Scottish polling since last October. Topline figures are:

Constituency: CON 15%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, SNP 32%
Regional: CON 15%, LAB 40%, LDEM 7%, SNP 26%, GRN 6%

The last Scottish polling we saw was a rather surprising MORI poll earlier this month. Until then Scottish polls had been pretty consistent in showing Labour ahead, often by quite hefty margins. The MORI poll either reflected a remarkable turnaround for the SNP – showing Labour’s lead dropping by 11 points in the constituency section since the previous MORI poll – or a rogue poll. The hope was that the next Scottish poll would give us a clue.

Obviously we can’t be confident what way the trend is moving with YouGov, since this is the first poll for over three months, but in the constituency section it certainly shows a Labour lead consistent with the other polling prior to MORI’s last one. The regional vote shows an even larger lead for Labour – it’s unusual to have such a difference between the regional and constituency votes, so that might be a bit of a blip.

YouGov’s weekly poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 44%, LDEM 10%. This doesn’t tell us a huge amount. It’s within the margin of error of the smaller Labour lead of around 6 points that YouGov’s polling of the last week has suggested may be the case… but it would also be in line with Labour’s lead growing again. I’ll post tomorrow on some the other questions in the Sunday Times polling, once the tables go up on the YouGov website.

UPDATE: There’s also some sort of poll in the Observer tomorrow. No details, but it has a headline claiming “poll reveals suge of sympathy for the far right”

UPDATE2: It’s a large Populus poll for the Searchlight Educational Trust to be released here on Monday – I’ll put a post up here once the full report is out.