Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%. Yesterday’s narrowing of the Labour lead to two points looks like the outlier most people assumed it was at the time – instead we are back to figures very much in line with the Labour lead of about 5 points that YouGov have been showing for a fortnight or so.

We also have a new Angus Reid poll out today, with broadly similar figures to MORI (well, they are more similar to MORI than they are YouGov and ICM). Topline figures with changes from the start of the month are CON 33%(-2), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 12%(nc). A movement towards Labour, but all well within the margin of error.

I’m not certain what the dates on this are – whether it was all after the GDP announcement, straddled it, or was all before it.


Last night we had both YouGov and Ipsos-MORI polls, and while I’ve already written about the headline voting intention figures, both had some other interesting findings.

YouGov’s poll was conducted after the release of the GDP figures which showed the economy shrinking in the final quarter of 2011, so we can see some initial effects. The most notable has been a big increase in the proportion of people thinking the country will drop back into recession – in our Sunday Times poll at the weekend 52% of people thought it was likely Britain would go back into recession in the next twelve months, that has now grown to 64%.

51% of people think the government’s cuts are too deep and too fast and they should change direction, this compares to 37% who think they are necessary and the short term pain will be worth it in the long run.

However, this doesn’t equate to Labour being ahead on the economy – asked which party is most likely to run the economy well – 38% think the Conservatives will compared to 28% for Labour. Interestingly we also repeated a question from before the election asking which team of leader & chancellor would be best for people’s living standards. Here Miliband & Balls led Cameron & Osborne by two points. Given that other polling consistently shows Cameron is better regarded than Miliband, and Osborne and Balls are roughly equal in public regard, my guess that the difference in these questions is between “running the economy well” and “raising you and your family’s standard of living”. It’s probably a case of “the Tories would run the economy better… but boy it’s going to hurt”.

YouGov also asked about what they think Labour would be doing differently if they were in government, 55% think they would be making smaller cuts than the government (15% think they’d be cutting about the same amount, 5% even more), 32% think they’d be making bigger tax rises than the government (19% about the same and 24% smaller) and – the bottom line – 35% think the economy would be performing less well were Labour in power, 24% about the same and 24% better.

Moving over to MORI’s monthly poll, they’ve asked one of my favourite questions – the do you like the leader, the party, both or neither, for each party.

For David Cameron, 30% of people like both him and his party, 39% like neither. 17% like Cameron but not his party, 7% like the Conservatives but not Cameron. Hence, in total Cameron is liked by 47% of people (down 6 since before the election) and the Conservatives by 37% (down 1) – while Cameron’s likeability has dropped somewhat since the election, he is still viewed considerable more positively than the party he leads.

For Ed Miliband, 25% like both him and his party, 31% like neither. 11% like Miliband but not his party, 20% like Labour but not their leader. Hence in total 36% like Miliband and 45% like Labour, meaning Miliband is less popular than the party he leads (although this early in his leadership it’s going to be largely down to people not really being aware of him). The comparable figures for Gordon Brown from before the election were 37% liked Brown and 43% liked Labour – not actually much different yet, though the reasons behind it are obviously very different.

Finally MORI asked about Nick Clegg. Sadly this appears to be the first time they’ve done it for the Lib Dems, as it would have been fascinating to see the changes. Anyway, 24% like both Clegg and the Lib Dems, 35% like neither. 16% like Clegg but not the Lib Dems and 16% like the Lib Dems but not Clegg. Overall 40% like Clegg and 40% like the Lib Dems.

Some of the crossbreaks are interesting too (though normal caveats about sample sizes apply). First the pattern of perferences in the new era of coalition politics – amongst Conservative supporters, 70% like Clegg and 41% like the Liberal Democrats. Amongst Labour supporters, 35% like the Liberal Democrats and just 19% like Clegg. Attitudes to the Lib Dem party aren’t that different between Labour and Conservative voters, but attitudes to Clegg are a world apart.

Looking at parties own supporters, amongst Conservative supporters 86% like David Cameron, amongst Liberal Democrat supporters 73% like Clegg, amongst Labour supporters just 59% say they like Ed Miliband. Early days for him of course…

Ipsos-MORI’s monthly political monitor poll for Reuters has topline figures of CON 33%(-5), LAB 43%(+4), LDEM 13%(+2). This is the biggest Labour lead since the election that never was in September/October 2007 and significantly bigger than the leads of 4 or 5 points that YouGov, ICM, ComRes and Angus Reid have all been showing this month – note the small increase in the Lib Dem score too, something else which has been consistent across pollsters this January.

Note well that this poll was conducted before the GDP figures were released – a know a lot of people will be anxious to write stories about the negative economic figures producing a ten point Labour lead. They would be wrong, the fieldwork for this poll predates the figures.

Tonight’s YouGov/Sun voting intention figures are CON 39%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%. A two point lead is smaller than we’ve seen of late from the daily trackers, but I’ll urge my usual caution about odd findings – it’s still well within the margins of errors of YouGov’s recent polls.

This is, of course, the first poll whose fieldwork was conducted wholly after the new GDP figures showed the economy shrinking, although much of it was before all the coverage and political arguments about the economy today. So far it clearly hasn’t damaged government support, but there’s plenty of time yet.

Note also that the Lib Dems are, once again, in double figures. It looks as though they’ve recovered slightly from mid-December when YouGov were consistently showing them at 8% or 9% – my guess it that it’ll be because the issue of tuition fees has dropped down the political agenda.