YouGov’s voting intention figures for the Sunday Times tomorrow are CON 42%, LAB 38%, LDEM 12% (!). That is YouGov’s lowest score for the Liberal Democrats since October 2007 (and for the record, October 2007 saw them at 11%, immediately before and after Ming Campbell’s removal as leader).

Of course while we give a lot of attention to polls showing extremes, almost by definition they tend to be the outliers. That said, looking at the broader picture of YouGov’s daily polling the Liberal Democrats are definitely upon a downwards trend. In early July YouGov were putting them around 16-17%, in mid July they were pretty solidly on 15%, in the last week and a half we’ve frequently seen polls putting them at 14%, this is the second to put them below that.

I doubt this poll reflects a sudden drop in Lib Dem support – they’ll probably be back up around their current YouGov average of 14% on Monday – rather it’s a continuation of that downwards trend. Lib Dem ministers still don’t seem too worried about their position in the polls, commonly dismissing it as just what happens to a junior coalition partner until they find their voice, but presumably it will become a cause of concern for some point (not just for the Lib Dems, but presumably also for Conservatives who fear it placing pressure upon the coalition.

An update on YouGov’s Welsh Assembly polling for ITV earlier in the week. YouGov now also have the regional figures on their website here, so along with the constituency figures we already had, the full figures are:

Assembly constituency vote: CON 20%, LAB 40%, LDEM 13%, Plaid 22%
Assembly regional vote: CON 20%, LAB 37%, LDEM 14%, Plaid 20%

By my calculations I reckon on a uniform swing this would result in Labour 28 (up 2), Plaid Cymru 12 (down 3), Conservatives 11 (down 1), Lib Dems 8 (up 2).

Labour should win Clwyd West and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire from the Conservatives. However, the Conservatives would get back a seat in North Wales on the regional vote at the expense of Plaid. The same would happen in Mid and West Wales, with the Conservatives losing a constituency but getting it back at the regional vote, again at the expense of Plaid. In south Wales Central, the Conservatives would lose 1 regional seat to the Lib Dems, in South Wales East Plaid would lose one to the Lib Dems.

Voting intention in the referendum on law making powers for the Welsh assembly stands at YES 48%, NO 34%.


We finally have a proper poll on the Labour leadership contest. In the Sun tomorrow YouGov have a poll of Labour party members, and of members of affiliated trade unions. Full results are here.

Amongst Labour party members David Miliband leads on first preferences, with 38% support, though Ed Miliband is not far behind on 32%. Diane Abbott is third with 13%, Andy Burnham on 10% and Ed Balls last on 7%. The second preferences of Diane Abbott and Ed Balls’ supportes split in favour of Ed Miliband, with Andy Burnham’s supporters splitting pretty equally between the two.

When all respondents are asked to pick who they would prefer between the Milibands (as a way of estimating what would happen once all the second, third and fourth preferences had fallen out), David Miliband and Ed Miliband are exactly equal amongst Labour party members, with 50% a piece once those who didn’t express a preference are excluded.

Turning to Trade Union members, David Miliband again comes top on first preferences with 34% support, followed by Ed Miliband on 26%, Diane Abbott on 17%, Burnham on 13% and Balls on 11% – the same order as amongst members. Second preferences of trade union voters though split either evenly between the Milibands, or in favour of David – meaning that David Miliband leads his brother by 56% to 44%.

The final section of the electorate college is the MPs. YouGov did not poll them, but has based a projection on the work Left Foot Forward have done, based on MPs nominations (adjusted to reflect the nominations that were “lent” to Diane Abbott from supporters of other campaigns). Their second preferences are based on a canvass of Abbott, Burnham and Balls supporters by Left Foot Forward, but relatively few would give responses meaning that YouGov have mostly assumed they will split evenly between the Milibands.

The conclusion of this, is that the race is between David and Ed Miliband, and it is very close. On YouGov’s current figures, David Miliband is ahead, but this is based solely upon the Trade Union vote and some quite flimsy assumptions about how MPs second preferences will split. The big trade unions have mostly endorsed Ed Miliband, and once they contact their members urging them to back Ed it may well shift the trade union vote in his favour. Equally, we really do have very little information on MPs second preferences, so the MP section of the college really could go either way.

Based on the polling so far, David Miliband leads, but it is perfectly possible for Ed Miliband to win.

YouGov’s daily voting intention figures are CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 14%. Government approval is back to +5 (41% approve and 36% disapprove), bouncing back from a very tight +2 yesterday.

YouGov also had a new Welsh Assembly poll for ITV Wales out today. Constituency voting intention, with changes from last month, are CON 20%(+1), LAB 40%(-2), LDEM 13%(+1), Plaid 22%(+2). Changes are all within the margin of error, and reflect a consolidation of the great big shifts last month when Labour were up ten points and the Lib Dems down eight.

Ipsos MORI have published their monthly politial monitor for Reuters. The topline voting intention figures are CON 40%(+1), LAB 38%(+7), LDEM 14%(-5). I always urge some amount of caution with great big shifts in support, but in this case we have already seen Labour increasing their support into the mid 30s and the Lib Dems dropping into the mid-teens with YouGov’s daily polling, so while it’s not to the same degree (this is the smallest Conservative lead any poll since the election has shown), the trends are in the same direction.