There is a final Scottish poll from YouGov in the Scotsman this morning. Topline figures are CON 17%, LAB 37%, LDEM 22%, SNP 21%. These show very little change from the 2005 election – the Conservatives are up 1, Labour down 2, the Liberal Democrats down 1 and the SNP up 3. If there was a uniform swing across Scotland on Thursday, it would result in only two seats changing hands – the SNP gaining Ochil and South Perthshire, and the Liberal Democrats gaining Edinburgh South.


There is a new(ish) Harris poll in this morning’s Metro. Topline figures are CON 36%(+3), LAB 26%(+2), LDEM 28%(-4). The changes are from a poll a week ago, thought the fieldwork actually overlapped with one, which was conducted between the 28th April and 4th May, despite having a sample size of 786. I have no idea why Harris take so long with their fieldwork, I expect TNS BMRB to be slower as they conduct face-to-face surveys, but online surveys should be fast!

I don’t know if this is Harris’s final call, or they will have a more up-to-date poll tonight. Most companies should be publishing their final calls tonight, the exception will be Ipsos MORI, whose final poll will be in tomorrow’s Evening Standard.


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Sky have published the results of today’s ComRes poll for ITV and the Indy. The topline figures with changes from yesterday are CON 37%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 26%(nc) – so no difference at all. There is clearly no sign of a Lib Dem collapse here, although ComRes were showing lower levels of Lib Dem support anyway. The fieldwork was conducted on Sunday and Monday, so if there has been some sort of drop in Lib Dem support over the last 24 hours it wouldn’t have picked it up anyway.

NB – For obvious reasons tomorrow will be very busy day here, so please bookmark the backup site http://ukpollingreport.wordpress.com, where all posts will be mirrored, now in case the site goes down tomorrow.


ITV Wales have a new YouGov poll of voting intentions in Wales. Topline figures are CON 27%(+4), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 23%(-6), PC 10%(+1). Changes are from this poll at the height of the Lib Dem surge, hence the large falling back. Fieldwork was done yesterday and today.

This works out as a swing of 6.7% from Labour to the Conservatives in Wales, larger than in most GB polls. If repeated at the general election on Thursday then on a uniform swing across Wales the Conservatives would gain four seats (Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan, Aberconwy and Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire) and Plaid Cymru would gain two (Ynys Mon and Arfon). Labour would be down 6 and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 4.


Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 35%(nc), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 24%(-4), a sharp drop for the Liberal Democrats.

Just when it was looking as though the position had settled down, we suddenly have a shift in support. It could be the “Cleggmania” bubble bursting, or people pulling away from a hung Parliament after the heavy Conservative campaigning against it, or Liberal Democrat supporters heeding the call of Labour figures to vote tactically for Labour…. or, it could just be an outlier. I always urge caution when a poll shows a sudden change – wait to see if it is reflected in other polling.

The only other GB poll I am expecting tonight is ComRes (though their fieldwork is one day behind YouGov, so if there has been a sudden drop in Lib Dem support I wouldn’t necessarily expect to see it reflected by ComRes). I expect most pollsters will be saving their final polls of the campaign until tomorrow evening, but we shall see.