Tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph reports that CrosbyTextorPepper have repeated their poll of the 30 seats seats most vulnerable to the Conservatives (last time they did it I believe they used the top thirty seats on this list). The breakdown in support in these seats stands at CON 44%, LAB 20%, LDEM 18%. At the last election support in these seats stood at CON 38%, LAB 31%, LDEM 25%, so the poll represents a swing of 8.5%, the equivalent of a 14 point national lead for the Conservatives, so much in line with national polling.

When CrosbyTextor last polled these seats (see my reports here and here), back in late June 2008, the figures were CON 49%, LAB 20%, LDEM 21% – so this poll actually shows the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats down on last year – not that this should come as a particular surprise to us, given that in June last year the national polls were giving the Tories leads of around 20 points.

This is assuming that the Sunday Telegraph figures are excluding don’t knows and wouldn’t votes – last year they published figures including them, and I had to get the tables from CrosbyTextor/Flying Matters in order to get the comparable repercentaged figures.

The poll was conducted between the 1st and 11th July.