Tonight’s Populus poll also apparently shows that only 45% rate their chances of voting in an immediate general election at 10/10. This compares to 51% in Populus’s last poll, and 57% in the one before the expenses row began.

Populus don’t normally include the details of the likelihood to vote question in their published tables, so we can’t really put it in a wider context. ICM however do, and we can see a similar pattern there. The graph below shows likelihood to vote in ICM’s polls since early 2006 when they began including it in their standard published tables.

The blue line is the proportion of people who rate their chances of voting at 10/10, the orange line people’s average answer. On both you can see the sharp drop in ICM’s last poll, which equalled the lowest proportion of certain to votes (47%) since 2006, and was the lowest average likelihood to vote (7.25).

According to Mike Smithson there is a new Populus poll for ITV news tonight. Topline figures, with changes from their last poll – taken just as the expenses row broke, are CON 39%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 17%(-5).

Labour and the Conservatives remain down, and largely unchanged. The big shift is in the level of Liberal Democrat support, which has fallen by five points. Up to now, polls have tended to show the two main parties suffering from the expenses row, but the Liberal Democrats have been largely untouched. It seems strange that they should suffer now, though I suppose it could be that their earlier resilience was actually a positive effect of the Gurkha story, which has now faded from the news agenda.

Support for other parties continues to rise, it was up to 12% in Populus’s last poll, now it’s up to 19%, breaking down as SNP 4%, Green 2%, UKIP 6%, BNP 4% and Plaid 1%.


New ICM poll

After all my ponderings about whether we would see Labour fall to third place behind the Liberal Democrats in the next ICM poll, their actual poll shows nothing of the sort. The full topline figures are CON 39%(-1), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 20%(+1). Others are at 14%, somewhat lower than in other recent polls – this divides between 4% for UKIP, 4% for the BNP and 2% for the Greens.

So a contrast to the other polls over the weekend. The trend at least is similar, both Labour and the Conservatives down, the lead substantially the same, minor parties up. The degree, however, is much less – and consequently we have Labour up in the high twenties rather than the calamitous figures we’ve seen from some other pollsters. I expect some of the reason may be ICM’s re-allocation of don’t knows, which in practice tends to help a party down on it’s luck. We won’t know for sure till the tables are out.

Other questions show a similar picture to YouGov, ComRes and BPIX’s findings. Most people (69%) think Gordon Brown has handled the crisis badly, while David Cameron has done well (55% agree).

There is a new YouGov poll in this mornings Telegraph. Topline voting intentions are CON 39%(-2), LAB 23%(+1), LDEM 19%(nc). The “others” are made up of 6% for UKIP(nc), BNP 4%(nc), Green 4%(+1), SNP/PC 4%(nc).

For Europe voting intentions stand at CON 26%(-2), LAB 21(+2), LDEM 14(-5), UKIP 16(-3), BNP 7%(+4). The Green figure wasn’t given it in the Telegraph, but they were mentioned as being ahead of the BNP. Notably this is the first poll to show the BNP gaining any sort of significant boost from the expenses row (judging by the maths, I’d expect it to also show the Greens benefiting). From early polls that showed UKIP were almost the sole beneficary of the expenses scandal, other minor parties now appear to be reaping the rewards.

The poll was conducted between the 14th and 16th of May, so just two days after the previous YouGov poll. Normally my instinct would be to say that public opinion doesn’t shift so quickly, so any movement is likely to be just sample error. In these circumstances, public opinion is obviously very volatile. The net result however is much the same – we are awash with European voting intention polls, opinion seems to be rapidly shifting, and we should probably just take the broad view of the polls.

Looking at the other questions in the poll, David Cameron continues to come out of the scandal far more positively than Gordon Brown. 54% of respondents thought he had acted more decisively, compared to 12% for Brown.

Questions on expenses themselves revealed the pattern of anger and desire for retribution we’ve seen elsewhere. 86% thought there was a widespread problem, 64% thought MPs who had made mistakes should face prosection, 64% thought they should be deselected even if they had paid back the money.

YouGov also asked about the Speaker – 54% said he should resign, with only 13% saying he should stay.

(While I’m here I should also point out something that isn’t a new YouGov poll. The Scottish Sunday Express printed up the cross-break from the YouGov/Sun poll yesterday. This had a sample size of only 178, and would not have been weighted specifically to Scottish demographics, so won’t be a good guide to voting intentions at all. As with all small regional cross-breaks in individual polls, it’s best ignored).

UPDATE: The full tables are here, and support for the Green party in the European elections stands at 9%. The Christian Party/CPA are on 1%, as are Libertas.

There is also a new European election voting intention poll by ComRes in the Sunday papers. The poll is commissioned by UKIP. The topline figures are CON 28%, LAB 23%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 15%, GRN 11%, BNP 4%.

Labour are doing better than the recent BPIX and YouGov polls, though it’s unclear whether the poll was past vote weighted. It’s also the first poll where the Greens appear to be benefitting from the expenses row, though again, it’s unclear what prompting by party name was used.

I’ve collected all the European election voting intention figures here.