ComRes’s monthly poll for the Independent is out, and shows topline figures of CON 45%(+5), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 17%(-1). Changes are from the last ComRes poll, carried out at the end of March.

The figures are almost the same as yesterday’s YouGov poll in the Sunday People. We haven’t had any post-budget figures from ICM, Populus or MORI yet, but so far it is looking as if, between the rows over MPs expenses, “smeargate” and the budget, we have seen a further shift against Labour and we are back into Tory landslide territory. Obviously there is a long way to go until a 2010 election, but the June local and European elections aren’t looking pretty for Labour.

The YouGov/Evening Standard poll also included various questions about Boris Johnson’s mayoralty. Boris’s overall net approval rating stands at plus 25, with 46% satisfied with the job he is doing as mayor and 21% dissatisfied. Asked about specific areas, there was strong net approval of his handling of London buses (plus 33) and the Tube (plus 27), slightly weaker approval of his performance on crime (plus 10) and a marginally negative verdict of how he has handled the recession (minus 2).

YouGov also asked how people would vote in a re-run between Boris and Ken – 49% would vote Boris, 33% Ken (respondents were not offered the chance of voting for other candidates, so this was not a genuine voting intention polls by any means, but since the London electoral system does redistribute votes between the top two candidates it offers a rough guide). Asked about an election between Boris and an unspecified Labour candidate Boris’s lead was even larger, but that really was an articifical choice in an election that is largely about the individual mayoral candidates.

Finally YouGov asked who people would prefer in a contest between Boris and Sir Alan Sugar. This showed Sir Alan with a solid lead over Boris, 40% to 32%. It’s worth noting that it was presented as “Labour not fielding a candidate”, with the implication that Sir Alan was running as an Independent, rather than Sir Alan as the Labour candidate, which I suspect would have lead to rather different results.

There should be a ComRes GB poll later on tonight.


Today’s Evening Standard carries a new YouGov poll of London. The topline voting intention figures are CON 45%, LAB 33%, LDEM 16%.

This represents a swing of 9.5% from the last general election, which is actually marginally lower than the swing to the Conservatives in the country as a whole, which the last YouGov poll suggested was 10.5%. The giant PoliticsHome poll of marginal seats last year also suggested that London was one of the Conservatives weaker areas.

I can’t see any other questions in the Standard’s report, but in the past they’ve tended to commission polls and then report results over a couple of days, so there may yet be more.

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sunday People. I can’t find an online source yet, but Sky TV reports it as showing topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 17%(-1).

These figures are almost identical to the previous YouGov poll, not particularly surprisingly given it was only carried out a a few days ago for the Daily Telegraph.

Sky News also reports a majority of people supporting the actual measures contained in the budget, echoing the YouGov/Telegraph and Populus/Times polls. 64% said the supported the increase in income tax, 82% the increase in tobacco tax and 66% the increase in beer tax.

As I wrote after the Populus snap poll came out however, budgets are often more than the sum of their parts. While people said that they supported the measures in the budget, only 5% said it made them more likely to support Labour, 23% said it made them less likely to vote Labour.

Polls tonight?

John Craig on Sky News keeps mentioning a new poll (or polls) due out tonight, which suggests are more bad news for Labour. I don’t know anything about any, but I’ll update as soon as a I hear anything.