Posted on December 31st, 2008 by Anthony Wells
When commentators write about polls they often fail to resist reaching for the cliche of saying the polls are extremely volatile, or even that there is unprecedented volatility. Often what they actual mean is that differences between pollsters or normal random sample error are spitting out apparently contradictory figures. Polls are not normally particularly volatile [...]
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Filed under: Uncategorized
Posted on December 22nd, 2008 by Anthony Wells
ComRes have released what is probably the final poll of the year (though I’m conscious I was rather premature saying that last year when a final YouGov poll emerged after Christmas!). The topline figures, with changes from ComRes’s last poll, are CON 39%(+2), LAB 34%(-2), LDEM 16%(+2).
I’m always a bit wary of weekend polls conducted [...]
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Filed under: Communicate, Voting Intention
Posted on December 20th, 2008 by Anthony Wells
YouGov’s final poll of the year for the Telegraph has topline figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 42%(+1), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 14%(-1). It was conducted between the 16th and 18th December.
Clearly there is no significant change on the last YouGov poll, though collectively their last few polls have been showing a slight [...]
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Filed under: Voting Intention, YouGov
Posted on December 19th, 2008 by Anthony Wells
The polls are now showing levels of support that would result in a hung parliament that would, given the maths, almost certainly produce another Labour government. However, expectations continue to be that Labour will lose the next election. As I type the bookies still have the Conservatives as the heavy odds-on favourite, betting spreads have [...]
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Posted on December 19th, 2008 by Anthony Wells
No2ID, the campaign against ID cards, have commissioned an update to their regular ICM polls on ID cards, which shows no change whatsover in the pretty even split in favour and against the idea (48% support it, 46% opposed).
As I’ve said before, polls commissioned by pressure groups are the ones I’d normally advise people [...]
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Filed under: ID cards
Posted on December 17th, 2008 by Anthony Wells
MORI have released their monthly political monitor (their poll earlier this week was a seperate one, commissioned by the Daily Mirror). The topline figures, with changes from earlier this week, are CON 39%(-2), LAB 35%(-1), LDEM 15%(+4). I don’t have confirmed fieldwork dates yet, but it was likely done over the weekend.
Given the extremely short [...]
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Filed under: MORI, Voting Intention
