YouGov August Tracker

YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph has topline figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 45%(-3), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 16%(nc).
The Conservatives are down slightly compared to the last YouGov poll carried out for Compass a week ago, but that one in turn had seen them rise 3 points. The bigger picture is [...]

Not as simple as that…

The polls have been largely static for the last three months, showing Conservative leads between 13 and 24 points.
Written like that, it doesn’t sound so static does it? Say the position was closer between the main parties, no one would describe a situation where polls were showing results varying between a 6 point Labour lead [...]

The state of Labour’s core vote

A new Harris poll in the Financial Times (full tables here) gives an interesting look at the state of Labour’s core vote.
Harris found 13% of people who said they had always voted for the Labour party. While this sounds low for the party’s absolute core vote, remember that turnout at the last election was [...]

22 point Tory lead from YouGov

Tucked away in the Observer there is also news of a YouGov poll for Compass which shows broad support for a one off windfall tax on “oil companies recent profits”. 67% supported a windfall tax, 13% opposed it.
Full tables for the poll are here and also include a voting intention question. Topline figures, with changes [...]

Latest ComRes poll

A new ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday has topline voting intention figures - with changes from the last ComRes poll - of CON 46%(nc), LAB 25%(+1), LDEM 16%(-2). Once again the position appears to be pretty much static. The poll was conducted on the 20th and 21st August.

Brown vs Miliband

Both ICM and YouGov asked people about Brown and Miliband in their recent polls. In YouGov’s poll 21% of people thought Miliband would be a better Prime Minister than Brown (unfortunately YouGov didn’t give the alternative of him being worse than Brown - only of not being better). 11% of people told YouGov they would [...]

Three holiday polls

No sooner do I go on holiday for a week than we get three polls in a row.
ICM/Guardian (15-17th August): CON 44%(-1) LAB 29%(nc) LDEM 19%(+3)
YouGov/Sunday Times (14-15th August): CON 45%(-1) LAB 25%(-1) LDEM 18%(+1)
Ipsos MORI (15-17th August): CON 48%(+1) LAB 24%(-3) LDEM 17%(+2)
Polls in August are normally treated with slight scepticism because it’s [...]

Holiday

As you may have guessed, i’m currently on holiday, in the wilds of norfolk where even broadband toggles fear to tread (or at least fear to work). Please use this thread to discuss any exciting polls in my absence - like that ICM one in this mornings Guardian.

SNP storm ahead in Scotland

The SNP continue to drip-drip the findings of their YouGov poll into the public arena - today’s press release has the constituency voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament, and show a daunting SNP lead over Labour. Topline voting intentions are CON 13%, LAB 25%, LDEM 14%, SNP 44% - a nineteen point lead for the [...]

More from Sunday’s YouGov Poll

The full tables for the News of the World’s YouGov poll are now available here.
On whether replacing Gordon Brown as leader would make people more or less likely to vote Labour, 21% said it would make them more likely, with 7% saying less likely. While I’m still no great fan of questions like this, [...]