An ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph has topline voting intention figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 42%(+1), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 21%(-1).

The changes from the last poll are insignificant in themselves, but the continuing drift towards the Conservatives makes the 16 point lead in this poll the largest Tory lead ever recorded by ICM (I think!), and the lowest level of support recorded by Labour. The gap between Labour and the Liberal Democrats remains at 5 points. I’m fascinated (in a watching a car crash sort of way) as to what will happen if Labour do drop below the Liberal Democrats and fall into third place.

The poll also asked about 42 day detention. As with the last time this was before Parliament, the public seem to be supportive of it (though as with many questions, it will be worth looking to see exactly what was asked). Apparently ICM found 65% of people supported the policy with only 30% opposed. This does seem to translate into party support in its own way – while the Conservatives (who oppose 42 day detention) are more trusted to tackle terrorism than Labour (who support 42 day detention) the figures are 32% to 28%, and a 4 point Labour deficit on the issue of terror is still better than the 16 point deficit they have overall!

There is an ICM poll in tommorrow’s Sunday Telegraph. Their Three Line Whip blog tells us that it is going to show a “healthy” Conservative lead, and suggests that Labour’s brand is tarnished (we shall see what that means in due course). More later when the figures are published.


I was expecting a Populus poll tonight, but normally they drop me an email to say when the figures will be published on their website and – so far – no email, so it’s looking doubtful.

What has turned up is the monthly poll for ComRes, which has the Conservatives on 44% and Labour on 30%. The Conservatives are up 1 point on ComRes’s last poll, putting them at the highest score they’ve recieved so far in ComRes’s relatively short history, but Labour are up 4 points, so the Tory lead drops slightly. No idea what the Lib Dem figure is yet.

It is obviously a far small Conservative lead than that shown in YouGov’s recent polls. While YouGov have produced three polls since the local elections showing the Conservatives with a lead of 20 points or above, so far it hasn’t been reflected by any other pollsters. In the case of Populus and MORI, that’s because they haven’t produced any polls at all since then – we’re due polls from both of them. For various methodological reasons I wouldn’t expect any pollsters to produce Tory leads as large as YouGov, but it will be interesting to see how close they get.

UPDATE – the full figures are CON 44%(+1), LAB 30%(+4), LDEM 16%(-3). The poll was conducted between May 30th and June 1st. That sharp drop in Lib Dem support is against the trend of all the other recent polls, which rather unnoticed by commentators – who have understandably been concentrating on the whopping great Tory leads in the polls – have been slowly but surely increasing their support in polls over the last few months. There’s no obvious reason why the Lib Dems should suddenly lose support, so colour me a bit dubious on that finding until we see it supported elsewhere.