A new poll for the Scottish Daily Mail by Scottish Opinion suggests a surge in support for the SNP. General voting intention figures for Holyrood (the poll asked only how people would vote in a Holyrood election, not how they would vote in the constituency and regional sections. Were CON 8%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, SNP 48%.

UKPolling Report is still unsure exactly how much weight to give Scottish Opinion polls – we don’t have details of their methodology and during the campaign for the Scottish Parliament they managed to produce some wildly volatile figures, presenting polls showing a 3 point Labour lead and 12 point SNP lead within weeks of each other. The 48% figure for the SNP seems very high indeed. There is, however, other polling evidence to suggest the SNP are enjoying a more modest lead in the polls. A previous YouGov poll carried out for the SNP around the same time as Brown became Labour leader also suggested a boost in SNP support – it found CON 14%, LAB 31%, LDEM 12%, SNP 38% in the constituency vote and CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, SNP 33%, Green 7%, SSP 5% in the regional list vote.

The giant SNP lead is not, however, reflected in support for an independent Scotland. The Scottish Opinion poll also found 31% of respondents approved of independence, but 49% disapproved.


The Evening Standard front page yesterday lead on a YouGov poll showing Boris ahead of Ken Livingstone in the race to be London mayor. It was actually part of YouGov’s poll in the Telegraph at the weekend – I held off mentioning it until now because, as some people will know, the regional breaks YouGov normally show in their tables for the Telegraph are based on ITV television regions, not government regions, so what proports to be London actually has a fair old chunk of the (Tory-voting) home counties. Well, I’ve doubled checked and the standard tables are now showing breaks for actual government regions, not TV regions, so the poll really was showing 46% of people in London preferring Boris Johnson, with 40% preferring Ken.

Unfortunately I need to point out that it was only a break of a national poll. National polls are weighted so they have the right numbers of people in terms of age, gender, class, political outlook and so on in the country as a whole, but they aren’t weighted within in region – so you could, for example, have too many women in London balanced out by too many men in Yorkshire. The overall number of people questioned in London was also only 170, so it was a very small sample size indeed. These figures really aren’t reliable enough to draw any firm conclusions from, though if pushed I suppose they are pointing for in a positive direction for Boris – the same poll had voting intentions in London at Labour 45%, Conservative 35% so clearly Boris is picking up support from non-Conservatives somewhere along the line.


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