YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph unsurprisingly shows voting intentions largely unchanged from their last poll, conducted just a week ago - CON 39%(nc), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 17%(+1). The poll was conducted between the 26th and 28th March.
On the “forced choice” question, asking if people would prefer a Labour government under Gordon Brown or a Conservative goernment under David Cameron, the Conservatives lead by 10 points. Taking the responses of current Lib Dem voters as a possible guide to how tactical voting will pan out at the next election, Lib Dem voters would still prefer a Brown government to a Cameron one by 40% to 32%. This is also reflected in a question asking people who their second preference party would be - more Lib Dem voters said Labour (21%) than Conservative (16%), although the party who Lib Dem voters were most likely to name as a second preference was the Greens with 30%. Conservative voters were most likely to name the Liberal Democrats as their second preference (23%), but large sections of Tory supporters named UKIP (18%) or the BNP (12%) as second choices. There was less of a challenge to the Labour party from fringe parties - 33% of Labour voters named the Lib Dems as their second choice, 14% the Greens and 9% the Conservatives.
Asked who would make the best Prime Minister, Tony Blair is once again marginally perfered to David Cameron, perhaps reflecting the recent improvement in the public’s opinion of Blair recorded in YouGov’s brandindex trackers over the past three weeks. Cameron’s lead over Gordon Brown has risen to 5 points, with 30% naming Cameron as the best PM compared to 25% for Brown.
YouGov also carried out a voting intention poll in Scotland. Constituency voting intention, with changes from the last YouGov Scottish poll, are CON 13%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 14%(-4), SNP 35%(nc). Regional top-up votes stand at CON 15%(+1), LAB 27%(-3), LDEM 12%(-2), SNP 33%(+1), GRN 6%(+1), SPP 2%(+1), Solidarity 2%. Weber Shandwick’s swingometer translates this into a Scottish Parliament with 46 SNP seats, 39 Labour seats, 18 Lib Dem seats, 19 Conservative seats, 5 Greens and 2 others.
47% of respondents in YouGov’s survey said that if the SNP emerge as the largest group they would like to see them form an executive through a coalition with a smaller party (10% would prefer a minority SNP exective, 18% a continuation of the Labour/Lib Dem executive). There was majority support for a referendum on Scottish independence with 64% of people respondents saying they support one. If a referendum is called, 28% of respondents said they would vote for independence, with 51% favouring the status quo.
Communicate Research’s monthly poll has voting intention figures with changes from last month of CON 35%(-5), LAB 31%(+2), LDEM 20%(+3). The poll was conducted between March 23-25th. The figures appear to show a very sharp drop in Conservative support, but as noted before, the lack of political weighting in Communicate and Ipsos-MORI polls means the results are more volatile and shifts from one month to the next less meaningful. (UPDATE - someone’s pointed out that the Independent’s coverage of the polls that that it was indeed weighted by past vote. I’m trying to find out if Communicate have altered their methodology and will update once I get an answer. UPDATE II - confirmed, Communicate Research polls are now weighted by past vote - I’ll put a proper post up on it when I get the details of their new methodology. What this means is that their future pollls should be less volatile, although it doesn’t mean that we can read much more into the changes this month, as last month’s sample could have just been unusually stuffed full of Tories!).
Meanwhile Populus have released their first poll of Scottish voting intentions ahead of the Parliamentary elections in May. The voting intention figures in the constituency section are CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 15%, SNP 38%, while in the more important regional top-up vote support stands at CON 14%, LAB 30%, SNP 35%, LDEM 14%. On Weber Shandwick’s swingometer this translates into the SNP becoming the largest party with 49 seats to Labour’s 43, with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats both on 18.
UPDATE: MORI’s monthly figures have also been released…sort of. A note on their website says that “as we are still running methodological tests while merging the Ipsos and MORI field operations, we are not publishing a full Political Monitor in March”. However, they have released voting intentions from a separate face-to-face omnibus survey which uses the same sampling and weighting regime as their normal figures. The topline voting intentions, with changes from the last MORI poll in January, are CON 41%(+2), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 17%(-2). It was carried out between the 9th and the 15th March.
This morning’s Telegraph has the first post budget test of public opinion, a YouGov poll has voting intentions of CON 39%(+1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 16%(nc). The poll was conducted between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.
The changes from YouGov’s last poll in the Sunday Times are insignificant, but they do suggest that there is no immediate “budget boost” for Labour. Overall 34% of people thought the budget was a fair one, while 46% thought it was not. YouGov have asked the same question after each budget since 2002, and this is the most negative reaction so far, the -12 “net fairness” figure compares to -7 last year, +15 in 2005, +13 in 2004, +23 in 2003 and +34 in 2002. That said, answers to the question are quite partisan - 70% of Tory voters think it was unfair and 65% of Labour voters think it was fair, so the trend may simply be a reflection of Labour’s falling popularity.
Overall 40% of people thought that the budget would leave the country worse off, with only 21% thinking the country would be better off. Despite the publicity attached to the headline 2p cut from income tax, 48% thought they personally and their families would be worse off, with only 18% thinking they would benefit, though put into historical context these figures are not incredibly bad. People tend to assume the worst about budgets - if you look back at some previous Brown budgets 45% thought they would be worse off in 2004, 63% in 2003 and 60% in 2002.
Asked about who will benefit from the budget, Labour will probably be quite pleased with the answers - 45% think schools will be better off (12% worse off), 34% think hospitals will benefit (18% worse off), 48% think families with children will benefit (22% think they’ll be worse off), 39% think pensioners will benefit (27% worse off), 33% think companies will benefit (25% think they’ll be worse off). The only group that a plurality of people thought would suffer from the budget was workers on low incomes, 42% thought they would suffer with only 29% of people thinking they’d be better off.
There were few questions on specific aspects of the budget. The cut in the standard rate of income tax and the increase in road tax on “gas guzzling” cars were both popular. Only 27% though Brown should not have cut the standard rate of income tax, 29% thought he was right to do what he did and 33% would have been happy with even larger cuts. Only 25% objected to the increase in vehicle duty, while 23% would have been happier with even larger rises.
Attitudes to Gordon Brown however remain ambivalent - 40% think he is an asset to the Labour party, but 38% think he is a liability. 44% think he is doing a good job as Chancellor, 36% a bad job. These are good figures compared to the sort of dire approval ratings recorded by Tony Blair, but compared to perceptions of Brown a few years ago are miserable. In YouGov’s 2005 post-budget poll Brown was seen as an asset rather than a liability by 63% to 16%, and his job approval figures were 61% to 19%.
Looking at direct comparisons with Tony Blair, 30% think Brown is doing a better job as Chancellor than Blair is as PM, 24% think the opposite. Compare this to two years ago, when 52% thought Brown was doing the better job. 35% of people would now prefer to have Tony Blair as Prime Minister, with 30% preferring Brown. This isn’t just Labour’s opponents playing silly buggers - Blair is now preferred across the board, amongst Labour supporters 52% would prefer to see Blair as Prime Minister.
Better news for Brown is that the “Stalinist” jibe doesn’t seem to have stuck. Only 25% of respondents thought that Brown behaved with “Stalinist ruthlessness”, and these were largely Tory votes. 39% thought he was properly tough and 18% thought he was neither tough nor ruthless.
ICM’s March poll for the Guardian has another double digit Conservative lead - the topline figures are CON 41%(+1), LAB 31%(+2), LDEM 18%(-3). The increasingly regular hypothetical voting intention question on how people would vote with Brown as Labour leader as usual showed a larger Conservative lead - in this case CON 43%, LAB 28%, LD 18%.
There are new YouGov and BPIX polls in the Sunday papers. Headline voting intentions in YouGov’s poll show the Conservatives on 38% (up one from the last YouGov poll) and Labour on 32% (unchanged from the last poll), the Liberal Democrats are at 16% (down one).
As usual, the Conservative lead increased when respondents are asked a hypothetical question on how they would vote with Gordon Brown as the Labour party leader, with the Conservatives up to 41% and Labour on 31%. Normal voting intentions aren’t given for the BPIX poll, but with Brown named as Labour leader hypothetical voting intentions are CON 38%, LAB 31%, LDEM 14%.
Both surveys show opposition to “green taxation” - increases are viewed cynically, with 63% thinking they merely a way to raise taxes. 60% told YouGov they were opposed to extra taxes on cheap flights, 69% were opposed to more congestion charges, 63% were opposed to higher fuel duties. Measures that meet with support are those which people imagine will effect only other people - so 66% support taxes on larger engined cars, and those which are entirely painless for the respondents themselves, unsurprising 91% support more use of technology to reduce carbon emmissions. There is a plurality in favour of building more nuclear power stations - 42% to 36% against.
In the BPIX poll 66% of people said they expected than an increase in air taxes wouldn’t actually result in a drop in passengers, it would only result in people paying more tax. Only 5% of respondents said they personally would reduce the number of flights they took a year if taxes rose by £10 per flight, and according to the Mail on Sunday, few people told BPIX that higher taxes would stop them flying until extra taxes reached £50 per flight, at which point 48% of people said they would cut down on the number of flights they took.
YouGov also asked about a number of other issues for the Sunday Times - 42% of people favoured renewing Trident, with 37% opposed. 53% of people think British troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan. Following the Channel 4 documentary critical of the Prince of Wales, 60% of people said they thought Prince Charles was correct in the way he speaks out on issues. However, 42% of people continue to think that the crown should skip a generation and Prince William should become King after the Queen’s death, rather than Charles.
MORI/League Against Cruel Sports - found 58% of people in favour of retaining the hunting ban, 17% in favour of repealing it.
NOP/BBC - 59% of people think council tax is unfair, 60% would favour a local income tax.
ICM/Unlock Democracy - 63% approved of the House of Commons vote in favour of a fully elected Lords.
Populus/BBC - 31% of people think dangerous obese children should be taken into care.
An ICM poll in the Sunday Mirror shows their largest Conservative lead since their honeymoon after the 1992 election. The headline figures with changes from ICM’s poll in the middle of February are CON 40%(nc), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 21%(+2). The Sunday Mirror doesn’t give fieldwork dates, but it would likely have been carried out around the end of last week. On a straight uniform swing this would give the Conservatives a small overall majority in the House of Commons.
For those who like to look for reasons for moves between individual polls, the Liberal Democrat spring conference and Menzies Campbell’s well-publicised conference speech occured between these two sets of figures, but realisitically changes of 2 points between polls are largely meaningless unless there are trends over a number of polls. On that front however, it does look as through support may be beginning to shift again. Since the election there have been two major shifts in public support: the election of David Cameron as Conservative leader boosted the Tories and brought the two main parties to roughly the same level in support; then, the combination of the foreign prisoner release scandal, John Prescott’s affair and Labour’s local election losses in 2006 gave them a knock. Since then the polls have been relatively static - with the exception of a temporary boost to Labour’s ratings after Tony Blair’s final conference speech, the overall position has been one of no change.
The last few polls from ICM and Populus however have shown a consistent increase in the Conservative lead, mostly due to a further fall in the level of Labour support (Communicate have also shown a similar sort of Tory lead, but their figures are more erratic,). In contrast YouGov are still showing the sort of figures they were reporting last year. While by 11 point leads like today’s make good headlines, the real news is when several polls start reporting a similar trend, it’s now starting to look as if Labour’s support is still falling. Whether that necessarily means anything while we are still in that sort of interregnum between Tony Blair announcing his immenent departure and (presumably) Gordon Brown taking over is a different matter. I am firm in the belief that, despite the hypothetical polling questions, there will be some sort of Labour boost in the polls, if only a short term one, only when that has settled will we see how the ground really does lie.
Voting intentions in Populus’s monthly poll for the Times, published on Tuesday, are CON 38%(+2), LAB 30%(-3), LDEM 18%(-1). This equals the largest Conservative lead recorded by Populus since the election. The poll was conducted between the 2nd and 4th March.
Populus’s hypothetical question on how people would vote with Gordon Brown as leader has fallen back in the normal pattern of showing an increased Conservative lead, with the Tory lead growing to 13 points. However, there is worse news for those hoping to encourage David Miliband to challenge Brown for the Labour succession, since Populus found a huge 20 point Conservative lead in a match up between Cameron, Campbell and Miliband.
Of course, with Miliband barely known amongst the public this is a largely meaningless question - and I suspect a fair amount of the supposed swing to the Conservatives is actually a large amount of Labour supporters saying “don’t know”. Despite this, the poll will certainly not do anything to create an image of David Miliband as an electorally popular alternative to Gordon Brown.
As most readers of this blog will know, the Labour leadership is decided by an electoral college made up of MPs, party members and levy-paying members of trade unionists affiliated to the Labour party. A YouGov poll in Monday’s Telegraph polls two of those three groups - party members and trade unionists and suggests that Gordon Brown would beat David Miliband even if he did run, and that Hilary Benn leads in the race for the deputy leadership.
Trade Unionists are the more hostile towards Blair - 40% think he should resign immediately compared to 26% of party members (a large majoirty of both groups think he should be gone by just after the May elections. Around 10% of both groups think he should change his mind and not resign after all).
A large majority of both party members (69%) and trade unionists (75%) would prefer there to be a contested leadership election, rather than a coronation. However, they are less certain that David Miliband, the media’s current candidate to be the anti-Gordon, is the man to do it. Party members are pretty much evenly divided on whether they would like Miliband to stand - 38% say yes, 42% no. A slight plurality of trade unionists (40% to 31%) would like Miliband to stand.
If Miliband did stand then, at present, it looks as though Gordon Brown would still easily win. Amongst party members 69% would vote for Brown to 20% for Miliband, 8% for John McDonnell and 3% for Michael Meacher. In a straight fight between Brown and Miliband Brown would win 70% to 30%. Amongst trade unionists the two left-wing candidates have more support, but Brown remains the runaway leader - Brown 63%, Miliband 15%, Meacher 13%, McDonnell 10% - in a straight fight it would be 64% to 36%.
Of course, we are a long way from an actual leadership election and David Miliband is still largely an unknown figure - YouGov polls of Conservative party members in September 2005 showed David Cameron trailing David Davis and Ken Clarke. These polls can’t predict how a relatively obscure figure like David Miliband might fare in an actual leadership election once he’s had the chance to bask in the media spotlight - they can only tell the baseline and, as it is, it’s not that bad - certainly if Miliband did challenge Brown it looks as though he would escape the sort of humiliation that Tony Benn suffered against Kinnock in 1988 and Bryan Gould suffered in 1992 against John Smith.
Meanwhile, there certainly will be an election for the deputy leadership and the YouGov poll suggests that Hilary Benn is the strong frontrunner amongst both party members and trade unionists. Amongst party members Benn leads with 36% followed by Alan Johnson on 22%, Harriet Harman on 13%, Peter Hain on 12%, Jon Cruddas on 9% and Hazel Blears on 7%. The picture amongst trade unionists isn’t that different - the main contrast is stronger support for Harriet Harman - Benn 34%, Johnson 20%, Harman 18%, Hain 12%, Cruddas 9%, Blears 7%.
Despite the low levels of support for Jon Cruddas, there was strong support for the idea of a deputy leader who was a “voice of the party”, rather than a leading cabinet minister - 60% of party members and 59% of trade unionists liked this idea, so if Cruddas can get over the problem of his low recognition and profile, he could yet build on his support. That aside, Hilary Benn does seem to have a good early lead - but once again, it is very early in the race.
Polls all round. ICM’s monthly Scottish poll ahead of the May elections has constituency voting intentions of
CON 16%(+3), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 16%(-1), SNP 34%(+1) and regional voting intentions of CON 15%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 17%(nc), SNP 32%(-1). Using Weber Shandwick’s swingometer this would leave the SNP and the largest party and the current Labour/Lib Dem ruling coalition unable to form a majority alone.
For all you you keep begging for one in my comments section, the BBC carries an ICM poll in Wales - the first Welsh voting intention poll for some years. Unfortunately, while they appear to have asked voting intention questions, since they report that the Labour vote would rise by 7% were Tony Blair to resign, they are nowhere to be found in the article itself. We’ll have to wait for ICM to provide the tables on their website. The poll found that half of respondents were unaware that there even were elections in May, and only 40% said they intended to vote. Only 43% of respondents were able to name Rhodhi Morgan, with the other party leaders in Wales having name recognitions in single figures.
Finally, MORI have conducted a opinion poll in Northern Ireland. Current voting intention stands at DUP 25%, Sinn Fein 22%, SDLP 20%, UUP 16%, Alliance 9% and Greens 3%, PUP 1%, Conservatives 1%, UK Unionists 1%. This represents a huge drop in the Ulster Unionist vote, and a large advance for the Alliance (though historically polls in Northern Ireland have tended to over-represent the level of support for moderate parties and underestimate that for the extremes). Interestingly, if there has been a shift from the Ulster Unionists to the Alliance then the balance between parties designated as nationalist and those designated as unionist will be very close indeed.