A quick round of today’s polls. There were two voting intention polls out today, both of which I expect were slight outliers from the norm… but in opposite directions.
Both Populus and YouGov have been showing average Labour leads of around 3-4 points this month. YouGov’s poll this morning had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13% – a seven point Labour lead (tabs here). Populus’s poll had topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14% – both parties equal (tabs here.) In both cases, I suspect we’re just seeing normal sample variation.
The other “new” poll out today was the latest TNS Scottish referendum poll. As usual the face-to-face methodology means the poll is actually pretty old – it was conducted between the 25th June and 9th July, so the start of the fieldwork was three weeks ago. Topline referendum voting intention is YES 32%(nc), NO 41%(-5). Without don’t knows, that translates to YES 44%, NO 56%… TNS has typically been showing yes support at 40-42% once you exclude don’t knows, so this is a good YES poll by TNS standards.
This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up here, with topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%.
The biggest chunk of the rest of the survey covered the ongoing historical child abuse story. Three-quarters of the public think that it’s probably true that some senior political figures were involved in child abuse in the 1970s and 1980s, and that there was a deliberate cover up. They are more divided over how well the current government have responded to the allegations – 34% think they’ve handled it well, 41% badly. 44% of people say they have at least some confidence in the inquiries under Baroness Butler-Sloss and Peter Wanless to fully investigate the matter, 44% do not. 56% would rather see a full public inquiry.
More generally 46% think questions about historical child abuse are being asked in a proportionate and measured way and there a genuine questions to be asked, 29% think it risks becoming a rumour-led witch hunt of retired politicians.
Interestingly, and perhaps reflecting their general suspicion towards the establishment, UKIP supporters are by far the most likely to believe there was a cover up (90%) and have by far the least confidence that the inquiries will get to the bottom of them (26% – compared to 67% of Conservatives and 65% of Lib Dems).
The other new poll is today is a Scottish ICM poll in the Scotland on Sunday. Topline figures with changes from last month are YES 34%(-2), NO 45%(+2). Excluding don’t knows it works out at YES 43%(-2), NO 57%(+2). The movement is towards NO, but it’s within normal margins of error and appears in line with ICM’s longer term trends. Looking back the YES score (excluding don’t knows) in ICM’s monthly Scottish polls this year have been 46%, 43%, 46%, 48%, 43%, 46% and now 43%. That looks to me like just random variation.
We had a glut of seven point leads at the start of the week – from Ashcroft and Populus on Monday and YouGov on Tuesday. At the end of the week things look like they are back to normal again – we won’t get Ashcroft till Monday, but Populus’s second poll of the week has more typical figures of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12% (tabs here) and YouGov had a Labour lead of four on Wednesday and three this morning – CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12% (tabs here).
There was also a new Survation Scottish poll for the Daily Record. Like the recent TNS poll, the main movement was actually from don’t knows towards the two campaigns, with the lead once don’t knows were removed remaining the same. Topline figures are YES 41%(+2), NO 46%(+2), without don’t knows that works out at Yes 47%(nc), No 53%(nc) (Tabs here.)
A quick round up of Sunday polls today. The regular YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up here, with toplines of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. A two point Labour lead, in line with the daily YouGov polls this week so far.
There was also an Opinium poll in the Observer. They showed toplines of CON 29%(-2), LAB 35(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 18%(+1). Changes there are since a fortnight ago, so pre-Juncker. No sign of Opinium showing similar movements to those in YouGov’s polls this week.
Finally there is a new-ish TNS BMRB Scottish poll. As usual there is quite a gap between TNS’s fieldwork and publication, so this poll was actually conducted in mid-June and is older than the recent YouGov Scottish poll. Topline figures are YES 32%(+2), NO 46%(+4), changes are from the last TNS poll in May. On the face of it it’s a widening of the NO campaign’s lead, but both sides have gained at the expense of don’t know and excluding don’t knows the YES figure is 41%, very much in line with TNS’s previous polls this year.
This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. Tabs are here. The twice-weekly Populus poll also had a one point lead today, CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%. Tabs are here.
Polls do seem to be showing some narrower Labour leads this week, though really too early to tell if it’s anything meaningful. YouGov definitely seem to be picking up less UKIP support post-Juncker (last week they had UKIP in the range 13%-15%, this week 11%-12%), but the same trend isn’t obvious in Populus’s polls this week.