This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAN 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% (tabs here). Yesterday’s YouGov poll was also back to a small Labour lead, so it looks as if the Tory lead immediately following Cameron’s speech may have fallen away again. My advice would normally be to wait for a few more polls to see where things settle down, but of course tonight we have a potentially poll changing event in its own right – the Clacton and Heywood & Middleton by-elections.
YouGov also have some polling on the Human Rights Act. Asked their reaction to the Conservative policy based on what they’ve seen or heard 43% say they support it, 23% are opposed. Asked about some of the actual details of the policy people are more mixed – there is support (by 48% to 32%) for saying British courts should not take into account the rulings of the the European Court of Human Rights, but much more even divisions on other parts of the policy. 40% think that Britain should not have to change the law if the ECHR rules our laws are infringing human rights, 36% think such laws should have to be changed; 40% think human rights should be limited for those who have broken the law themselves, 39% think they should apply to all; people are split 41%-41% on whether human rights laws should apply to all cases or only serious ones. By 47% to 29% people think human rights laws should apply to British soldiers overseas. Of course, public support for policies isn’t based on a balancing up of all the details in a policy, which most people will never really be aware of anyway. They are more likely to be based on a rough understanding of the broad approach – in this case I expect the initial answer is based upon gut level support for “stopping foreign judges telling us what to do”, hence the broad policy being more popular than most of the individual parts that make it up.