The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here and has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%. There are some questions on the political leaders (particularly Ed Miliband in advance of this week’s Labour conference), but they show the usual pattern – David Cameron is more trusted than Ed Miliband on the Conservatives’ strong issues like law and order and the economy, Ed Miliband does better on Labour’s strong issues like the NHS. Ed Miliband’s own ratings remain mediocre.
On the Scottish referendum 32% think David Cameron handled it well, 54% badly. 25% think Ed Miliband handled the referendum well, 48% badly. Asked about English devolution 71% of people thought that Scottish MPs should not be able to vote on issues that affect only England (including the majority of Scottish respondents in the poll), 15% of people thought they should. On the Barnett formula there was a predictable result – English respondents thought it should be scrapped and Scottish funding reduced, Scottish respondents that it shouldn’t.
Survation also had a poll out today and found similar levels of support for some sort of re-arrangement of the constitution for England: 65% said that Scottish MPs should by banned from voting on English laws at Westminster, 59% would support an English Parliament. There is a crucial caveat though – Survation also asked what the top priority should be for the government – 31% said immigration, 20% the economy, 9% jobs, 9% public services, 6% combating terrorism and down on 5% constitutional reform. Don’t look at polls showing large majorities supporting English votes on English Laws and assume it also means people think the issue is urgent or important. It only means support is widespread, not that people necessarily think it should be a priority.
As people have reported and grumbled, there is no proper exit poll tonight for the Scottish referendum (the defining feature of an exit poll is that it’s done outside actual polling stations as people exit. They are very expensive, and no one commissioned one!). We are hence going to have to wait for the actual results.
The only 10pm polling news we have is that YouGov did a recontact of the people who took part in their final poll during the day today to check for any late swing – amongst those people they did find some movement from YES to NO since the final polling, producing a final YouGov prediction of YES 46%, NO 54% (details are here). Lord Ashcroft also apparently did some polling during the day asking about people’s reasons for voting how they did – those results will be out tomorrow.
Given we aren’t likely to have any proper result for six or seven hours I’m going to catch some sleep and then wake up for some real results, but feel free to discuss the early results as they come in here.
Filed under: Scotland
Two more final polls tonight. YouGov’s final poll for the Sun and the Times has topline voting intention figures of YES 48%, NO 52% – reinforcing the general polling consensus around that figure. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday, with a sample size of 3000 or so.
Meanwhile a Survation telephone poll for the Daily Record has toplines of YES 47%, NO 53%, again very much in line with the consensus. The Survation poll was conducted today, so has later fieldwork.
The very last referendum poll isn’t till tomorrow morning – Ipsos MORI for the Standard. I’ll post shortly summarising what we can tell from the final polls so far.
This week will obviously be dominated by Scottish polling – we have Opinium’s first Scottish referendum poll tonight, and possibly a Panelbase poll, and then final call polls from at least YouGov, MORI, Opinium and Survation next week. In the meantime though a quick detour to update the latest GB voting intention polls; we had three of them on Friday:
Populus – CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13% (tabs)
Ipsos MORI – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15% (tabs)
YouGov – CON 31%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16% (tabs)
YouGov’s penultimate Scottish poll before the referendum is out tonight (the last one being the eve-of-poll one next week). Topline figures, with changes from the weekend, are YES 48%(-3), NO 52%(+3) – the No campaign are once again ahead, but it remains within the margin of error.
One can look at this two ways. One is that Yes moved briefly ahead, but there has been a move back – perhaps the Scottish people recoiled a bit from the risk when it began looking like it would really happen, perhaps the stories over the last few days of pension companies and banks redomiciling to the UK had a impact (fieldwork was between Tuesday and today, so later fieldwork would have picked some of it up). An alternative is that it’s just margin of error – the last poll was a little “yes-ey” or this poll is a little “no-ey”. It’s a natural human instinct to look for narrative, to weave data into a coherent story, when sometimes they are just random noise. As we enter the final week of the referendum campaign what we can be certain of is that the polls are now all showing it extremely close – YouGov and Panelbase have YES at 48%, Survation 47%, TNS 49%. No appears to be slightly ahead, but it’s close…
Filed under: Scotland