Latest YouGov voting intentions in Wales, conducted for S4C, has topline figures as below (changes are from the last YouGov poll in Wales a fortnight ago).

Welsh Assembly consistuency: CON 21%(+1), LAB 45%(-4), LDEM 8%(nc), PC 18%(+1)
Welsh Assembly regional: CON 20%(nc), LAB 41%(-3), LDEM 7%(+1), PC 18%(nc), UKIP 7%, Grn 4%

By my reckoning, this would result in a Welsh Assembly with 32 seats for Labour, 13 Tories, 10 Plaid Cymru and 5 Liberal Democrats. This poll was conducted at the end of last week – there’s a final YouGov Welsh poll to come this week for ITV Wales.

There is a new Welsh poll out by rmg:clarity – full details here. We have voting intention figures, but they don’t appear to have asked seperately for constituency and regional (in fact the survey appears to have asked “At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?” so didn’t even specify Welsh assembly election, though one hopes most respondents would have known.

Topline figures are CON 20%, LAB 51%, LDEM 8%, PC 17% – without seperate constituency and regional figures we can’t really do a prediction, but clearly with over 50% Labour would likely get an overall majority.

In terms of methodology, this was a mixed-mode phone/internet poll, but well over 95% of the fieldwork was telephone. It is weighted accorded to likelihood to vote, with people less than 5/10 likely to vote excluded. It was weighted by normal demographics – there was no political weighting, but it was weighted by constituency. Looking at the demographics, something very odd appears to be going on with age – of a sample of 1,040 there are only 42 respondents under 35, and the tables imply they were only weighted up to 80 people, which seems a very low target. That said rmg:clarity did perfectly well in the recent Welsh referendum, getting exactly the same figures as YouGov and ICM.

YouGov’s monthly(ish) Welsh poll for ITV Wales is out. It was conducted after the results of the Welsh referendum were known. Topline figures with changes from last month are:

Constituency: CON 20%(-1), LAB 48%(+3), LDEM 7%(nc), Plaid 19%(-2)
Regional: CON 20%(nc), LAB 45%(+4), LDEM 5%(-3), Plaid 18%(-3), UKIP 5%(+1), Green 4%(+2).

I’ll add all my normal caveats about being cautious about a single poll showing movement, but there appears to have been a slight shift towards Labour since the referendum. On a uniform swing, my projection is that it would be enough to give Labour an overall majority in the Welsh Assembly, producing 33 seats for Labour, 14 for the Conservatives, 10 for Plaid and 3 for the Liberal Democrats.

Also notice the Liberal Democrats way down on just five in the regional vote, compared to 12% at the last Welsh Assembly election. On that level of support they probably wouldn’t get any regional seats at all, they avoid wipe-out because of some safe constituency seats. UKIP will probably be happy to see themselves equal to the Lib Dems in the regional vote, though it wouldn’t give them any seats (though not far off – if they get to 6% then on a uniform swing here’s a chance UKIP could get a regional seat in South Wales East)