There are two new bits of YouGov polling today. First up is the regular Welsh political barometer. The usual caveats apply about it being just one poll, but it shows Labour support perking up in Wales since Jeremy Corbyn’s election – Westminster voting intentions with changes from last month are CON 26%(-2), LAB 42%(+5), LDEM 5%(+1), Plaid 10%(-2), UKIP 16%(+1).

Assembly voting intentions are CON 23%, LAB 39%, LDEM 6%, Plaid 18%, UKIP 13% for the constituencies, CON 24%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, Plaid 18%, UKIP 14% for the regional vote. Roger Scully’s commentary is over on the Elections in Wales blog here and has an Assembly seat projection of 29 seats for Labour, 12 for the Tories, 10 Plaid, 8 UKIP and one for the Lib Dems.

The Times also has some YouGov national polling, showing the Leave campaign narrowly ahead in their EU referendum polling – REMAIN 38%, LEAVE 40%. This is the first time YouGov have asked the question using the new referendum question, so some of the shift might be due to that (I discussed here how asking the question as Remain vs Leave seems to produce figures that are better for those who wish to leave than asking it as Yes vs No), but nevertheless it’s the first time since November that YouGov have shown LEAVE ahead. Tables are here.

As well as the regular GB poll, YouGov have released new Welsh and London polls this week.

The London polling for the Evening Standard is here and has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. Despite its Conservative mayor London tends to be more Labour than the country as a whole – at the last election the Labour party were two points ahead of the Tories in London, compared to the seven point Tory lead across Great Britain. This means a ten point Labour lead in London is a four point swing from Con to Labour, the equivalent of a one point Labour lead in a GB poll. In other words, the swing to Labour in London is pretty much the same as in Britain as a whole.

The Welsh polling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University is here and has topline figures of CON 23%, LAB 37%, LDEM 6%, PC 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. Compared to the general election result this is Labour up 1, the Conservatives down 3 – a swing of 2 points (so actually a smaller swing to Labour than in Britain as a whole). Roger Scully of Cardiff University’s analysis of the poll is here.


ICM Welsh poll

BBC Wales had a new ICM poll of Wales out this morning, conducted in the aftermath of the Scottish referendum. Westminister voting intentions in Wales, with changes from the previous ICM Welsh poll in February, are CON 23%(-1), LAB 38%(-4), LDEM 7%(-2), Plaid 13%(-1), UKIP 14%(+7). This puts UKIP up into third place in Wales, though on a uniform swing wouldn’t give them any seat (on his blog Roger Scully projects these figures would produce 28 Labour MPs (up 2), 8 Conservatives (unchanged), 1 Lib Dem (down 2) and 3 Plaid Cymru (no change)). Asked about Wales’s constitutional future just 3% would support Welsh independence, 49% would support extra powers for the Welsh Assembly, 26% support the status quo, 12% would like the Assembly abolished.

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov GB poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 37%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%. Another two point lead, but it comes after a five point lead yesterday so it could still easily be margin of error.

There’s been a couple of other YouGov polls in the last day or two that I meant to post on but haven’t had the time. First there are the latest Welsh voting intentions for ITV and Roger Scully at Cardiff University. Topline figures there are:

Wales Westminster: CON 25%, LAB 41%, LDEM 5%, PLAID 11%, UKIP 14%
Welsh Assembly constituency: CON 21%, LAB 37%, LDEM 5%, PLAID 20%, UKIP 13%
Welsh Assembly regional: CON 21%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, PLAID 18%, UKIP 16%

If these figures were repeated at a Welsh Assembly election then Labour would remain just short of a majority on 29 seats, but UKIP would break through with 8 seats and the Lib Dems would be reduced to just 1. Note that the YouGov Welsh weightings have been updated for this poll (detailled here) so I haven’t done changes since last month.

Secondly there was a new Scottish referendum poll for the Times. Topline figures there were YES 35%(-1), NO 54%(+1). Without don’t knows, it becomes YES 39%(-1), NO 61%(+1). That means the last two YouGov Scottish polls have shown a slight movement to NO, but as it has been for the whole campaign, the movements are tiny and barely distinguishable from normal sample error. Other recent Scottish polls have shown movement in the other direction, so I’m still not convincted there is any real movement either way.

There has been some minor movement on the economic questions – by 49%(+4) to 27%(-3) people think Scotland would be worse off economically if it became independent, by 43%(+4) to 17%(-2) they think they personally would be worse off. The changes are since March, and suggests the economic argument may be moving away from the Yes campaign.

While we’re on the subject of Scottish polling, Peter Kellner had a lengthy article looking at a potential cause of the differences between polls here – specifically looking at the recalled Scottish European vote in polls following the European election and the different approaches to weighting by Holyrood past vote. It’s something I may return to in another post if I get time, but worth reading Peter’s take now (UPDATE: And Survation’s take here)

YouGov Welsh poll

ITV Wales has a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions out today, summarised by Roger Scully here. The various different VIs, with changes from December’s poll, are as follows:

Westminster VI: CON 22%(+1), LAB 47%(+1), LD 7%(-1), Plaid 11%(-1), UKIP 9%(-1)
Welsh Assembly (Const): CON 21%(+2), LAB 42%(-1), LD 9%(nc), Plaid 19%(-1), UKIP 5%(-2)
Welsh Assembly (Reg): CON 19%(nc), LAB 39%(-1), LD 9%(nc), Plaid 17%(+2), UKIP 10%(nc)
European: CON 17%(-3), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 7%(-1), Plaid 12%(-1), UKIP 18%(+5)

Roger calculates that if repeated at a Welsh Assembly election Labour would retain 30 seats, so still the tinest whisper short of an overall majority, and UKIP would enter the Assembly for the first time with 5 seats. If the European election intentions were repeated in May Labour would return two MEPs, the Conservatives and UKIP one each, meaning Plaid would lose out.