ICM have resumed polling for the Guardian. Topline figures for their first post-election poll are CON 41%(-3), LAB 43%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 3%(+1) – changes are from the election result.

In terms of methodology, ICM have dropped the turnout model that produced such large, but ultimately incorrect, Tory leads as well as their political interest weighting. This isn’t going all the way back to their 2015 methodology (ICM also made a change to how they reallocated don’t knows who refused to give a past vote and, of course, switched from telephone to online), but it’s a long way in that direction.


There’s normally a somewhat quite period in terms of voting intention after an election. There’s just been an actual vote, newspapers have blown all their polling budget during the campaign and even pollsters have to have a holiday. Sample quotas and weights all have to be rejigged as well (that applies even when polls have got an election correct – most polls’ quotas or weights include voting at the previous election, so 2015 targets all need replacing with 2017 targets).

We’ve had two Survation polls earlier this month, both showing Labour leads. Yesterday’s Sunday Times also had a new Panelbase poll, their first since the general election, and also showed Labour ahead. Topline figures there are CON 41%(-3), LAB 46%(+5), LDEM 6%(-2), changes are from the actual election result (or at least, the Great British vote share at the general election – the vast majority of opinion polls cover Great Britain only, not Great Britain and Northern Ireland).

It’s an interesting rhetorical question to ponder how much of the shift in public opinion since the election is because of the general election result (Theresa May’s figures have dropped now she is the PM who called a snap election and lost her majority, Jeremy Corbyn’s have shot up now he is a leader who deprived the Tories of a majority when he’d been so widely written off), and how much is the continuation of trends that were already there in the general election campaign? In other words, if the election had been a week later, would the trend towards Labour have continued and would they have been the largest party (or the Tories less able to form a viable government?). We’ll never know for sure.


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As usual, the final poll of the campaign (unless ICM do release updated figures) is from Ipsos MORI, who traditionally keep on polling on Wednesday evening and publish their final call in Thursday’s Evening Standard. Topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 36%(-4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 4%(+2), giving them an eight point Tory lead. Two slight changes since the last poll – MORI have expanded their turnout adjustment to include tenure and, in the same way as they have done in their final call at past general elections, they’ve reallocated people who are certain to vote but are still saying don’t know in line with their newspaper readership. Full tabs are here.

And, that’s it until 10pm, when we will get the headline call from the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll from MORI and GfK.


Opinium have put out their final poll of the election campaign. Their final figures are CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was between Sunday and today, so it is also the first poll we’ve seen with fieldwork conducted after the terrorist attack in London Bridge, though there’s no significant change from Opinium’s previous poll at the weekend. Full details are here.

This is the first poll to be badged as a final poll. Survation put out their final poll for Good Morning Britain this morning (showing topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 40%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 3% – tabs here) but final poll for GMB is not necessarily the same as final poll. We shall, no doubt, have a flurry of final polls from ICM, ComRes, YouGov, Panelbase, Kantar and others tomorrow, MORI on Thursday.

I mentioned yesterday that Ipsos MORI normally do their final poll on polling day itself, and got a few comments about whether this is allowed. Yes – it is. The rules on election day is that you cannot publish an exit poll (or any poll that’s based on the opinions of people who have already voted) while polls are still open. It’s perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened. MORI do their fieldwork on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday like everyone else’s final poll… they publish on Thursday because they partner with the Evening Standard who publish around midday, rather than overnight.


There is only one GB poll so far today – ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian, their penultimate of the campaign. Voting intentions are almost identical to their poll for the Sun on Sunday yesterday, with topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, so will have been largely before the terrorist attack in London Bridge. Full tabs are here.

Survation will have a telephone poll out later tonight (probably midnight judging by past weeks’ timings) for Good Morning Britain, delayed for a day because of the terrorist attack. Other than that I expect most companies will now be looking towards their final call polls tomorrow, Wednesday or (if MORI stick their usual timetable) Thursday morning.