Two more final polls tonight. YouGov’s final poll for the Sun and the Times has topline voting intention figures of YES 48%, NO 52% – reinforcing the general polling consensus around that figure. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday, with a sample size of 3000 or so.
Meanwhile a Survation telephone poll for the Daily Record has toplines of YES 47%, NO 53%, again very much in line with the consensus. The Survation poll was conducted today, so has later fieldwork.
The very last referendum poll isn’t till tomorrow morning – Ipsos MORI for the Standard. I’ll post shortly summarising what we can tell from the final polls so far.
As well as the Ashcroft and Populus polls earlier today we also have the monthly ICM poll for the Guardian tonight, reported here. Topline figures with changes from a month ago are CON 33%(+2), LAB 35%(-3), LDEM 10%(-2), UKIP 9%(-1), GRN 7%(+3). It shows a sharp narrowing of the Labour lead, but it’s almost certainly a reversion to the mean: the previous ICM poll had the Labour lead jumping up to 7 points when it had been previously showing Labour and the Conservatives pretty much neck and neck.
The poll also asked about English and Welsh attitudes to the Scottish referendum and to further devolution. As we’ve seen elsewhere, there is little support for a currency union with an independent Scotland amongst the rest of the UK – 27% of people say the remainder of the UK should negotiate a currency union, 63% they should not. Asked about more devolution in England, via regional assemblies or an English Parliament 45% think it would help their area of England, 42% that it would not.
A couple of tight polls today. The weekly telephone poll by Lord Ascroft has topline figures for CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% (tabs here). Meanwhile the twice-weekly online poll by Populus this morning had figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 3% (tabs are here)
Along with the Ipsos MORI poll last week showing the Conservatives just ahead one might be forgiven for thinking that adds up to a narrowing of the polls. I’d be a bit cautious – the YouGov daily tracker had a three point lead at the weekend and a couple of sixes last week, the Opinium poll on Sunday had an eight point Labour lead. I think we’re probably just seeing a couple of low polls randomly turn up at the same time… though of course, time will tell.
This week will obviously be dominated by Scottish polling – we have Opinium’s first Scottish referendum poll tonight, and possibly a Panelbase poll, and then final call polls from at least YouGov, MORI, Opinium and Survation next week. In the meantime though a quick detour to update the latest GB voting intention polls; we had three of them on Friday:
Populus – CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13% (tabs)
Ipsos MORI – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15% (tabs)
YouGov – CON 31%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16% (tabs)
After their summer break Lord Ashcroft’s weekly GB poll start up again today with topline figures of CON 28%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. Tabs are here.
Meanwhile this morning’s twice weekly Populus poll has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Tabs are here.
Later on tonight there is also a TNS Scottish poll due to be published, so we shall see if the sharp narrowing in YouGov’s recent polling is echoed or not.