We have our usual rush of Monday polls today, all showing a slightly healthier Labour lead than of late.

The first of Populus‘s two twice weekly polls had topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% (tabs). Populus’s average so far this month has been CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, so this has the Conservatives a little lower than usual, UKIP a little higher than usual.

Lord Ashcroft‘s weekly poll had topline figures of CON 27%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7% (tabs). Compared to his recent polls this has the Conservatives down a tad, Labour and UKIP both up a tad.

The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. YouGov’s average figures so far this month have been CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16% – so again, the Conservatives lower than usual, UKIP higher than usual.

None of the figures are different enough from recent polls to be sure the difference isn’t just normal sample variation, but the fact all three are showing a shift in the same direction (Conservatives down, UKIP up) means it’s possible we are seeing a bit of a publicity boost for UKIP following Rochester & Strood last week. Time will tell. Note also what it doesn’t show – any decrease in Labour’s support following several days of fussing about White Vans and Emily Thornberry.


Sunday polls

There are three polls in this Sunday’s papers – Opinium in the Observer and two separate YouGov polls, one in the Sunday Times and one in the Sun on Sunday.

Opinium has topline voting intention figures of CON 30%(+1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 19%(nc), GRN 4%(nc) (changes are from their last published voting intention figures a fortnight ago (tabs are here).

YouGov’s two sets of voting intention figures are CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15% in the Sun on Sunday poll, and CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6% in the Sunday Times (Sun Times tabs are here, Sun on Sunday should be up tomorrow) – so still showing the two main parties very close to one another.


Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. It has a Tory lead of one point, following a Labour lead in yesterday’s YouGov/Sun poll. Realistically we are in a position where the two main parties are so close that normal random variation is going to regularly spit out both Labour and Tory leads until and unless one party manages to pull substantially ahead of the other.

Rather out of the blue there was also a Survation constituency poll of Stockton South earlier today – a Conservative held ultra-marginal, currently represented by James Wharton. The poll had topline figures of CON 39%(nc), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 3%(-12), UKIP 18%(+15). Changes are from the general election and technically represent a tiny swing from Labour to the Conservatives. Clearly this is better than the Conservatives are doing in the national polls and they’d be pleased to hold such a vulnerable marginal, but it’s also just one single poll with a relatively small sample size (35% said don’t knows, so the topline figures are based on 571 people). Tabs are here.


Today we have our three regular Monday polls and all three are showing Labour and the Conservatives within a point of each other:

Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll has topline figures of CON 29%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 7% (tabs here).

The twice weekly Populus poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5%. This is the lowest that any poll has shown UKIP for a while, though Populus do tend to give them some of their lowest scores anyway (tabs here).

Finally YouGov for the Sun have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%. The eight point score for the Greens is the highest that YouGov have shown to date, and only the second time they’ve put them ahead of the Liberal Democrats.


The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is here and has topline voting intention figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 5% – continuing to vary around what appears to be an underlying Labour lead of a point or so.

Once again the poll included a batch of hypothetical questions with different Labour leaders, and again suggested that Alan Johnson would attract more public support than Ed Miliband. The control question asking how people would vote if the leaders remain Cameron, Miliband and Clegg shows a Conservative lead of three points. If the Labour leader was instead Alan Johnson Labour would be 2 points ahead, with Andy Burnham Labour would be one point behind, with Yvette Cooper Labour would be four points behind. Usual caveats apply – respondents don’t know what policies or priorities alternative leaders would set, so questions like this measure only first impression perceptions of leaders, and take no account of what effect a party actually dumping its leader and perhaps having to have a contest would have.

Asking about Miliband himself, his ratings this week have improved since a week ago, albeit from a low base. 27% now think he’s made it clear what he stands for, up from 20%. The percentage who think he is a strong leader is up 2 points… but is still only 9%. The percentage who think he is up to the job of PM is up three points, but is still only 21%. Overall 33% of people think Miliband should remain Labour leader, 43% think he should stand down, but many of these responses are from Labour’s opponents. Among Labour’s own voters 47% think Miliband should stay, 34% think he should be replaced.

Moving on 26% of people think that the rise of UKIP has increased the chance of Miliband & Labour winning the election, 16% that it has increased the chances of the Conservatives winning, 58% say don’t know or that it has done neither. Amongst UKIP’s own voters – the people the Conservatives would be seeking to reach with a “Vote UKIP get Labour” message – only 16% think their rise is helping Labour. 22% of people think that David Cameron has responded well to the rise of UKIP, 57% that he has responded badly. However they are evenly divided about what would have been a good response – 34% think Cameron would be better off adopting more of UKIP’s policies and being more like them, 33% think he would be better off distancing himself more and arguing against their polices.

There remains comparatively little support for any form of UKIP-Conservative pact. Only 18% of people overall would support it, and both UKIP and Conservative supporters are opposed. If the Conservatives lose the Rochester by-election 53% of people think Cameron should retain his job, including an overwhelming 92% of Conservative voters.