After a quiet start to the week today is turning out to be a busy day for polling, with new polls so far from Panelbase, TNS and Survation and ComRes and YouGov still to come. Here’s the rundown on what today’s polls so far show:
- TNS have topline figures of CON 30%(-3), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 19%(+3), GRN 4%(-1) (tabs)
- Panelbase have figures of CON 31%(-2), LAB 37%(+4), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 16%(-1), GRN 4%(-1) (tabs)
- Survation have figures of CON 31%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 15%(-3), GRN 4%(+2) (tabs)
An interesting set of polls so far, with all three showing Labour gaining support and some of the largest Labour leads we’ve seen in polls for over a month (the last 6 pointer was Survation in late Feb, the last 7 point Labour lead TNS in mid-February). We still have two more polls to come tonight though (and, indeed, a Scottish poll to boot), so let’s wait and see what they bring…
UPDATE: The rest of tonight’s polls are now out. The weekly ComRes poll for the Daily Mail has topline figures of CON 34%(-2), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 12%(+3), UKIP 12%(nc), GRN 4%(-1). ComRes too have movement in Labour’s direction, though they continue to show a Conservative lead – note the 12% for the Liberal Democrats, that’s the highest they’ve shown this year. Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%.
Quite a strange clutch of polls there – two Conservative leads, three Labour leads. Lots of the other interesting looking findings are almost certainly noise – Lib Dems are doing well in ComRes, but it’s not reflected anywhere else. UKIP are up in TNS, but down in Survation and no movement elsewhere. The only consistent trend amongst these is that all but tonight’s YouGov poll have Labour improving their position against the Tories. It’ll be interesting to see if that trend holds.
Meanwhile YouGov also have a new Scottish poll, conducted after the first Scottish leaders debate and straddling the second one. Westminster voting intentions there are CON 18%(+2), LAB 25%(-4), LDEM 4%(+1), SNP 49%(+3). As ever, only one poll, but it looks as if any debate impact in Scotland has helped the SNP. Certainly, with only a month to go it shows no sign whatsoever of the SNP lead fading.