TNS BMRB have released their latest poll. Topline voting intention figures are CON 28%(+3), LAB 37%(-3), LDEM 7%(-3), UKIP 18%(+4). Changes are from their previous poll a month ago and show the same trend of a narrowing Labour lead and increase in UKIP support that other companies have shown since early April, though the scale of the narrowing is probably mostly a reversion to the mean (their previous poll showed a rather incongruous 15 point Labour lead). Full tabs are here.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun this morning had topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%. Full tabs are here.


This morning’s Sun has YouGov’s first polling on perceptions of Thatcher since her death – full results are here. The majority of people think Thatcher was a great or good Prime Minister (indeed, 28% see her as the greatest of Britain’s post war Prime Ministers), but a significant minority also have strongly negative views: very few people see her as average, they were either for or against.

Overall 25% said Thatcher was a great Prime Minister, 27% good, compared to 23% who said she was terrible and 7% poor. Just 10% said average. Her ratings were not vastly different across the social spectrum, both men and women rated her highly, and while younger people born after she left office are less likely to have an opinion, those that did were still more positive than negative. Opinion gradually becomes less positive as you go northwards, but not drastically so – even in the North 49% have a positive opinion of Thatcher, 35% negative. Only in Scotland is the balance of opinion negative.

People’s views of Thatcher herself are very much in line with the media image of the “Iron Lady”. Asked what qualities she had 72% said she stuck to what she believed in, 66% thought she was strong, 59% decisive, 42% good in a crisis, 41% a natural leader. The lowest figure was being in touch with the concerns of ordinary people, something which only 11% of people now think that Thatcher was.

Her legacy for Britain is seen as more mixed. 47% think her period as Prime Minister was good for Britain, 36% bad for Britain. On balance people think her premiership left Britain economically better off, and 60% think she left the country more respected in the world. 51% think she left behind a country where there were more opportunities for women. By 36% to 31% people also think she left Britain a freer country. However 49% think she also left a less equal society behind her.

Asked about what they see as her successes and failures, Thatcher’s greatest achievement is the least political – 44% picked being the country’s first female Prime Minister. This was followed by winning the Falklands War (33%) and defeating the Miners’ strike and taming the Trade Unions (27%).

Her biggest failure was seen as the one that finally brought her down – 44% named the poll tax. This was followed by overseeing the decline of mining and manufacturing (37%) and the privatisation of utilities like British Telecom and British Gas (31%). The right to buy was picked by a significant number of people on both lists – 21% thought the introducion of the right to buy and the growth in home ownership was one of Thatcher’s greatest achievements, 22% thought selling off council housing through the right to buy was one of her worst failures.

Meanwhile the YouGov voting intention this morning was CON 33%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%. Right at the lowest end of Labour leads by YouGov’s recent polling, but usual caveats apply (it could be the impact of the Thatcher coverage, but could equally well be normal sample variation). In contrast the latest TNS-BMRB poll, conducted over the weekend, had figures of CON 25%(-2), LAB 40%(+3), LD 10%(nc), UKIP 14%(-3).


The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 28%(-3), LAB 38%(-5), LDEM 12%(+4), UKIP 14%(+5). There are some significant shifts in all the party’s figures, and unusual figures for most of the parties. The Conservatives are the lowest ComRes have shown them in a telephone poll this Parliament, Labour at the very bottom of their normal range, the Lib Dems their highest for five months, UKIP their highest ever. The broad direction of travel in the figures isn’t surprising, other polls from other companies have also shown UKIP on the rise and the Lib Dems recovering a bit, but the degree of it here is a bit startling. I would advise the usual caution I apply to any poll showing stark changes in party support.

Meanwhile the weekly poll for TNS BMRB is also out tonight. They too show a big jump for UKIP, but in their case not the Lib Dems. Topline figures are CON 27%(+1), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 10%(-3), UKIP 17%(+4), Others 10%(+2).


This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun was the first conducted wholly after the Eastleigh result was known, so is the first time we can look for any obvious effect on voting intention. Topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 12%.

The twelve point score for UKIP is the highest that YouGov have ever shown, so there is a fair chance that it is a reflection of the Eastleigh by-election, but equally, it’s only a very small reflection. I half expected a bigger impact, after all, a good by-election performance that creates the impression that a party is a serious contender has in the past had a noticable effect – look at the polls after Brent East for example. Perhaps it would be different if UKIP actually won a seat.

Yesterday also saw the release of the latest TNS-BMRB poll, conducted mostly (but not entirely) after the Eastleigh result. Topline figures were CON 29%(nc), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 14%(+2). Once again it’s an increase for UKIP, but nothing really significant (in the case of TNS-BMRB it is not a new high for them as they had one poll last year with UKIP at 16%).


A quick update on the latest voting intention polling. TNS-BMRB’s weekly poll has topline figures of CON 29%(-2), LAB 38%(-3), LD 11%(+1), UKIP 12%(+2), Others 10% (changes are from a week ago).

Meanwhile this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 8%.

This morning’s Times had some claims about polling conducted by UKIP in Eastleigh. I would advise totally ignoring any claims about “private polling” from political parties unless they cough up the tables so you can see if they were playing a straight bat. More often than not party claims about their “polling” in elections actually means their canvas returns. I’ve dropped a line to the various polling companies just to check none of them have any tables to release under the BPC disclosure rules, but thus far no one seems to have done anything.