A quick round of today’s polls. There were two voting intention polls out today, both of which I expect were slight outliers from the norm… but in opposite directions.
Both Populus and YouGov have been showing average Labour leads of around 3-4 points this month. YouGov’s poll this morning had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13% – a seven point Labour lead (tabs here). Populus’s poll had topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14% – both parties equal (tabs here.) In both cases, I suspect we’re just seeing normal sample variation.
The other “new” poll out today was the latest TNS Scottish referendum poll. As usual the face-to-face methodology means the poll is actually pretty old – it was conducted between the 25th June and 9th July, so the start of the fieldwork was three weeks ago. Topline referendum voting intention is YES 32%(nc), NO 41%(-5). Without don’t knows, that translates to YES 44%, NO 56%… TNS has typically been showing yes support at 40-42% once you exclude don’t knows, so this is a good YES poll by TNS standards.
A quick round up of Sunday polls today. The regular YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up here, with toplines of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. A two point Labour lead, in line with the daily YouGov polls this week so far.
There was also an Opinium poll in the Observer. They showed toplines of CON 29%(-2), LAB 35(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 18%(+1). Changes there are since a fortnight ago, so pre-Juncker. No sign of Opinium showing similar movements to those in YouGov’s polls this week.
Finally there is a new-ish TNS BMRB Scottish poll. As usual there is quite a gap between TNS’s fieldwork and publication, so this poll was actually conducted in mid-June and is older than the recent YouGov Scottish poll. Topline figures are YES 32%(+2), NO 46%(+4), changes are from the last TNS poll in May. On the face of it it’s a widening of the NO campaign’s lead, but both sides have gained at the expense of don’t know and excluding don’t knows the YES figure is 41%, very much in line with TNS’s previous polls this year.
The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer is out tonight, with topline figures of CON 31%(nc), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 17%(-2), Greens 5%. Their Labour lead remains at four points.
Yesterday there was also a “new” TNS voting intention poll, as far as I can tell the first Westminster poll they’ve published since last November. Topline figures there are CON 29%, LAB 35%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 23%. While it was newly published, the fieldwork was actually carried out a week and a half ago (I’m not quite sure why they publish so late – with their Scottish polls I’ve always assumed it’s something to do with the difficulties of doing face-to-face polling, but their Westminster polls are done online).
Two interesting polls last night. The daily YouGov poll for the Sun had topline voting intentions of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%. That’s a couple of lower Labour leads in a row, but as ever, that could easily be margin of error. Worth noting is the 6% for the Lib Dems, that’s the lowest that YouGov have ever shown since they started polling in 2001 (the lowest the Lib Dems have recorded in any GB poll is, so far as I can tell, a 3% in an ICM poll for the Sunday Correspondent in 1989. You occasionally get Lib Dem politicians rolling out the old story of how they remember when the Lib Dems were just an asterisk, which pollsters sometimes use to denote less than 0.5% but not actually zero. As far as I can tell, and I’ve been tracking the mythical beast for years, that never happened in a GB poll, though it could have done in a Scottish or by-election poll. 3% is the lowest to beat!)
Secondly there was a new Survation Scottish poll for the Daily Record. It has referendum topline figures of YES 39%(+2), NO 44%(-2). Excluding don’t knows that works out at YES 47%, NO 53%. Looking at Survation’s past Scottish referendum polling they’ve typically been showing YES at 37-39% and NO at 46-48%, so it does suggest movement away from NO… but as ever, it is only one poll and it’s the wider trend that counts. Tabs are here.
There was also a “new” TNS poll out yesterday, though the fieldwork was actually conducted about a fortnight ago, so much older than the Survation poll. That had referendum voting intention figures unchanged from the month before, YES 30%(nc), NO 42%(nc).
We have another final European poll, this time from TNS. Their topline figures for European voting intention are CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 31%, OTHER 13% – much closer than their previous poll which had a nine point lead for UKIP. It’s based on only those certain to vote, but from a four-point verbal scale rather than a 0-10 scale, so it’s not as strict a filter.
In terms of polls still to come, there is certainly a YouGov final poll still in the works. ComRes and TNS have both published their final polls before voting. I don’t know if Survation, Populus, Opinium or ICM who have all polled on the European elections this cycle will produce any new figures before Thursday. MORI so far haven’t polled on the European election this cycle.