Two new European election polls over the last couple of days. A Populus poll for the FT shows Labour in first place, with the Conservatives and UKIP fighting for second place. Topline figures are CON 27%, LAB 31%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 25%, GRN 3%. It was conducted between the 4th-6th of April, so after the Clegg-Farage debate. Full tabs are here.
Meanwhile a new TNS-BMRB poll also has Labour in first place, but only narrowly ahead of UKIP with the Conservatives in quite a distant third. Topline figures are CON 21%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 29%. Fieldwork was also post-debate, and tabs are here.
All the European election polling so far is collected here. Note that some of the variation is down to treatment of likelihood to vote. ComRes and TNS BMRB take only those people who say they are absolutely certain to vote, which helps UKIP. YouGov include all respondents and tend to show less positive figures for UKIP (but provide a crossbreak for only those certain to vote which is also very strong for UKIP). Populus weight by likelihood to vote, which is somewhere inbetween (everyone is included, but people who are unlikely to vote are weighted down).
Filed under: Europe
I’ve been entrenched in preparing Nick v Nigel debate polling (more on that later) for the last couple of day, but in the meantime there have been two new Scottish referendum polls.
The new YouGov poll in the Times this morning continues the recent trend of movement towards the YES camp. Topline figures are YES 37%(+2), NO 52%(-1), equating to to 42/58 split once don’t knows and won’t says are removed. YouGov tend to show one of the bigger NO leads, but the trend is there. Looking at the longer term figures from each company, back in September YouGov had YES at 38%, 39% in December and January, 40% in February, now 42% in March. YES have got a lot of catching up, progress is slow and there’s not that long to go, but the movement is there. Tabs for the new YouGov poll are here.
The second poll from TNS BMRB is contrasting, but is actually rather less new – fieldwork finished on the 9th March (I assume the long gap between fieldwork and publication for TNS polls is something to do with their face-to-face fieldwork, but it still seems to take a long time. Even face-to-face fieldwork these days is done on a laptop, so it’s not like lots of data needs to be collated by hand). Topline figures there are YES 28%(-1), NO 42%(nc). No continuation of the trend towards yes there.
Filed under: Scotland
Following the intervention of George Osborne into the debate over Scottish independence and what currency an independent Scotland might use there has been an obvious interest in the next Scottish polls and what they might show. Will it have closed or widened the gap, or made no difference? Today there are two new Scottish polls asking about the referendum, sadly neither quite answer the question.
To get the less interesting one out of the way first, TNS BMRB have a “new” Scottish referendum poll, but the fieldwork was actually conducted between the 28th January and 6th February (I can only assume that the long time scale is because the poll was conducted face-to-face… though even then, the fieldwork was completed a fortnight ago). The figures in TNS’s poll are YES 29%, NO 42%, 29% don’t know – entirely unchanged from their previous poll in mid-January. Given the fieldwork was conducted prior to Osborne’s intervention though, this clearly doesn’t answer the question.
More relevant is a new Survation poll in the Daily Mail. This was conducted on Monday and Tuesday, so after Osborne’s intervention and at the time Alex Salmond was actively responding. Topline figures there are YES 38%, NO 47%, Don’t know 16%. Survation’s previous poll was showing YES on 32%, NO on 52%, so prima facie it looks as though there has been a significant shift towards YES. But there’s a caveat – last month Survation weighted their data by recalled 2010 vote, this month they’ve weighted by 2011 Holyrood vote. According to John Curtice Survation’s weighting last month knocked about five points off of Yes, their new weighting has not, raising the possibility that the difference could just be down to weighting. Realistically its not that simple – there is a random element in sampling, one sample will not be the same as the next and, therefore, weighting will have a different effect from one poll to the next, and it seems like a big difference to all be down to weighting to a different election. All we can really be confident in saying is that the two polls are not really comparable, so we should probably hold off on judgement – there are sure to be some more Scottish polls along soon. The tabs should be up on Survation’s site in about half an hour.
Scottish independence referendum polls so far are here.
As well as the YouGov and Opinium national polls, there were also two Scottish referendum polls. Regular readers will recall that ICM’s Scottish poll a week ago showed an interesting narrowing in the race, so the question is whether this will be repeated elsewhere.
Survation’s first referendum poll in the Mail on Sunday had topline figures of YES 32%, NO 52% and don’t know 16%, very similar to the recent YouGov and Ipsos-MORI polls. Given it’s Survation’s first Scottish referendum poll we obviously don’t have any changes from last time.
More interesting are the figures from TNS-BMRB which have YES on 29% (up 2 points since December), NO on 41% (unchanged). The change is small in isolation, but looking at the broader trend from TNS there does appear to be a gradual increase in Yes support. In August they has Yes on 25%, October on 25%, November 26%, December 27%, now 29%.
TNS BMRB released a new poll on the Scottish independence referendum this morning. I expected several polls to appear in the wake of the publication of the white paper, letting us see if it had any effect on referendum voting intentions.
This alas is not one of them, as annoyingly it was carried out almost wholly before the white paper was published. For the record the figures show very little change from the previous TNS poll in October. The YES vote stands at 26%(+1), the NO vote at 42%(-1), 32% are undecided (for some reason TNS tend to show a much higher level of don’t knows compared to other Scottish referendum polls). Full tabs are here.