Two more final polls tonight. YouGov’s final poll for the Sun and the Times has topline voting intention figures of YES 48%, NO 52% – reinforcing the general polling consensus around that figure. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday, with a sample size of 3000 or so.

Meanwhile a Survation telephone poll for the Daily Record has toplines of YES 47%, NO 53%, again very much in line with the consensus. The Survation poll was conducted today, so has later fieldwork.

The very last referendum poll isn’t till tomorrow morning – Ipsos MORI for the Standard. I’ll post shortly summarising what we can tell from the final polls so far.


Two days to go until the referendum, and we starting to get the final “eve-of-election” polls. Three of them should be out tonight – ICM’s final poll for the Scotsman, Opinium’s final poll for the Telegraph and a Survation poll for the Daily Mail. As at the weekend, I’ll update this post as they come in.

ICM’s poll for the Scotsman shows YES on 41%, NO on 45%, don’t knows on 14%. Excluding don’t knows that works out at YES 48%, NO 52%. Last week ICM did two Scottish polls – a traditional telephone one for the Guardian which showed a two point lead for NO, and a rather unusual online one for the Sunday Telegraph showing an eight point lead for YES – far and away their best showing in any poll. However, the ICM online poll had a small sample size and seemed to be a Scottish boost to a GB poll rather than a bespoke poll in its own right, so we were a bit dubious about it. Today’s poll suggests we were right to be sceptical – a bespoke, full size ICM online poll is bang in line with the rest of the pack.

UPDATE: Almost as soon as I’d posted Opinium’s Telegraph poll also appeared, with identical headline figures of YES 48%, NO 52%. This is almost the same as their poll for the Observer at the weekend which had a 47/53 split. Tabs for the Opinium poll are online here (I don’t think the ICM ones will be up until the morning).
Survation is the final confirmed poll of the night, and I’m expecting that at 10pm.

UPDATE2: And Survation are also showing YES 48%, NO 52%. Tabs are here. Once again, it very similar to their previous poll which was showing 47/53. Three polls tonight, and all three showing a 48/52 split. The referendum polls really have come into a very tight consensus now, updating my list from the weekend we now have levels of YES support (excluding don’t knows) of:

Panelbase (online) 49%
ICM (phone) 49%
TNS (face to face) 49%
YouGov (online) 48%
ICM (online) 48%
Opinium (online) 48%
Survation (online) 48%
Survation (phone) 46%

The final polls tomorrow (and for MORI Thursday morning) may pick up very late swing, but barring any surprises it looks like the polls are going to be predicting a narrow victory for NO.


It’s the last Sunday before the referendum so we can expect several polls tonight (in fact, the chances are we’ll get lots today, and then comparatively few until Wednesday when there will be a glut of eve-of-referendum polls). I am expecting at least three today – Survation, Panelbase and Opinium – and I’ll update as they appear.

First out is Survation, conducted for the Better Together campaign. Their topline figures are YES 41%, NO 47%, Don’t know or refused 12%. Excluding the don’t knows and won’t says that works out at YES 46%, NO 54%. Full tables are here. I haven’t included any changes since last time as unlike all Survation’s previous Scottish referendum polls this one was conducted by telephone rather than online. It means we couldn’t confidently conclude anything from any change, though for what it’s worth it wouldn’t be showing any significant change anyway, Survation’s last online poll had YES 47%, NO 53%.

Later on we have an Opinium Scottish poll for the Observer, due at 8 o’clock, and a Panelbase for the Sunday Times.

UPDATE: The second Scottish poll of the evening is one we weren’t expecting – an ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph here. The fieldwork was done at pretty much the same time as the telephone ICM poll for the Guardian yesterday, but this one was conducted online and has significantly different figures. Topline figures with changes from ICM’s last online poll are YES 49%(+11), NO 42%(-5), Don’t know 9%. Excluding don’t knows this works out at YES 54%(+9), NO 46%(-9). This echoes the large shift towards YES over the last month that YouGov and TNS have shown, but the significant lead for the YES campaign is in contrast to other polls, which are showing a small lead for the NO campaign.

Note that the sample size for the poll was only 705, smaller than usual but not obscenely so (a sample size of 705 increases the margin of error to 3.7%, so less precise than 1000, but not by a vast amount). Update with the Opinium poll coming up very soon….

UPDATE 2: The Opinium poll for the Observer is also out and has figures that are very much in line with the main pack – YES is on 45%, NO is on 49%, 6% say don’t know. Excluding don’t knows that works out at YES 47%, NO 53%. This is Opinium’s first outing in the Scottish referendum campaign, so no trend data. Full results are here, and Opinium have a note on methodology here – in Opinium’s usual GB polls they do not use any political weighting, but in their Scottish polling they are weighting by both 2011 recalled Holyrood vote AND recalled 2010 Westminster vote.

Still to come tonight we have at least a Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times.

UPDATE 3: What is presumably the final Scottish poll of the night is Panelbase for the Sunday Times, and has a wafer thin NO lead. Topline figures appear to be YES 49%(+1), NO 51%(-1) (they are being widely quoted at 49.4% to 50.6%, but quoting decimal places when you’ve a margin of error of plus or minus 3 whole percentage points always seems downright silly to me!). I’ll update again shortly with a roundup of where we stand.


Survation have new Scottish poll out tonight for the Daily Record. Topline referendum figures are YES 42%, NO 48%, Don’t know 10%. Without don’t knows it works out at YES 47%(nc), NO 53%(nc) – exactly the same split as their previous poll at the end of August.

We now have a rather odd situation with the polls. For most of the Scottish referendum campaign we’ve had a situation where all the polls were showing a very similar trend (mostly little change, with occassional slight movement towards yes), but there were systemic differences between the overall figures: companies like Survation and Panelbase were consistently showing quite a tight race, companies like YouGov, MORI and TNS were consistently showing much bigger leads for NO. These past few weeks the polls have started to show different trends – YouGov and TNS have been showing a dramatic movement towards YES, Panelbase and Survation have shown things pretty static… but this means the overall figures have suddenly become much the same, everyone now seems to be showing a tight race, with Panelbase, TNS, Survation and YouGov all showing YES between 47% and 51%.


Quick off the mark following Douglas Carswell’s defection on Thusday Survation have a poll of Clacton in the Mail on Sunday that apparently shows a cracking great UKIP lead.

From the details that have been tweeted out so far the topline figures are CON 20%(-33), LAB 13%(-12), LDEM 2%(-11), UKIP 64%(+64%). We don’t have dates, sample size, questions and so on yet but prima facie it’s pretty unambiguous: Carswell will romp home with ease. If it does happen so convincingly expect a big impact in the national polls too from the publicity and the impact of people seeing a UKIP vote can return a UKIP MP (not to mention whatever temptations it would throw to any other potential Conservative defectors…)

UPDATE: Tabs are here, sample size 700, done on Thurs-Fri.