Sunday round up

The full tables for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are now up here. On the leader ratings David Cameron is back down to a rather more typical minus 6 (from minus 1 last week), Ed Miliband is on minus 45 (from minus 48 last week) and Nick Clegg’s rating declines again to minus 47 (after rising to minus 38 last week). The rest of the questions covered the treatment of bankers and education, amongst other things.

Two-thirds of people supported the decision to strip Fred Goodwin of his knighthood, and a similar proportion (63%) would support stripping other senior executives of those banks that needed bailing out of their honours. There was also high support (72%) for Stephen Hester being pressurised into forgoeing his bonus. Relatively few people agreed with the arguments that stripping bankers of honours and stopping their bonuses was damaging the business environment (25% agreed), or was detering foriegn companies from coming to Britain (17%).

On education, there are divided opinions – on whether academies will improve school standards marginally more people think they’ll make things better (27%), than think they will make things worse (24%). 29% think they’ll make more difference. On free schools the balance is in the other direction, with significantly more (33%) thinking they’ll make things worse than make things better (23%), with 23% thinking they’ll make no difference. In a separate question 44% of people said they were opposed to private companies being commissioned to manage free schools.

One other question that’s worth noting. YouGov asked if the current historically low interest rates were good or bad for respondents’ own finances. 23% said good, but 36% said bad (with 31% saying they made no difference). As one might expect there was a heavy age skew here – people between the ages of 25 and 59, that is, people most likely to be taking out mortgages, were most likely to be positive about low interest rates. People over the age of 60, that is, people most likely to be living off savings income, were most likely to be negative about low interest rates. None of this is surprising and we’ve seen results like this before, but it’s good to have a reminder that low interest rates are not a good thing for a large chunk of the electorate.

There was also a Panelbase Scottish survey in the Sunday Times. On the referendum question 37% supported independence, 42% opposed it and 21% were undecided. The Sunday Times’s website doesn’t appear to show voting intention figures, but I have seen them reported elsewhere as having shown CON 14%, LAB 29%, LD ??%, SNP 50% for the Holyrood regional vote and CON 13%, LAB 29%, LD ??, SNP 48% for Holyrood regional vote. I haven’t had them conformed at all.

Finally, alongside the normal swingometer on the site, I have now added a version using the provisional recommendations of the Boundary Commissions for the new boundaries here. Note that the seat projection based on the average polls is still based on the current boundaries, since those are the ones that would be used if there actually was the proverbial “general election tomorrow”.


Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%. The two main parties remain extremely close, but we’re seeing more marginal Labour leads than marginal Tory ones (in the last fortnight’s YouGov polls there have been 7 Labour leads, 3 Tory leads), suggesting the underlying position is a very narrow Labour lead.

Ipsos MORI have also released the rest of their regular Scottish poll, showing Holyrood constituency voting intentions. Topline figures there are CON 13%(+1), LAB 23%(-3), LDEM 10%(+2), SNP 49%(-2), Others 5%.


There was a new Ipsos MORI Scotland poll out this morning, using the wording that Alex Salmond has suggested for the Scottish referendum.

“Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?”

Topline results were 37% Yes, 50% No, 13% Don’t know. Taking only those certain to vote boost support for YES slightly, shifting the balance to Yes 39%, No 50%. On the other hand, those saying NO were more likely to say they had definitely decided how to vote. Full tabs are here.

As an aside, a year or two ago I did try to encourage people to keep discussion of Scottish independence to threads about Scottish polling, as it was developing a tendency to turn up and transform every discussion on the site into one about Scottish independence. It is starting to get that way again, so can I ask commenters to try and keep discussion of Scottish independence to threads about Scotland – like this one.


Following the weekend polling on Scottish Independence, there is a new YouGov poll of Scotland for Channel 4 news out today. Full tabs are here. Topline voting intention figures show the SNP continuing to hold a healthy lead in Holyrood voting intentions and now also ahead of Labour in Westminster voting intentions.

Westminster: CON 16%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, SNP 37%
Holyrood constituency: CON 13%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, SNP 44%
Holyrood regional: CON 13%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, SNP 39%, Grn 5%

On the referendum, there is an pretty even split on whether it should be a straight in-out question (43%) or a three way referendum (46%). On the timings, 38% would like it this year or next, 33% would like it delayed until 2014.

Finally, on actual voting intention in a referendum, on “devo-max” 58% of those who gave an answer said they would vote in favour, 42% said they would vote against. On full independence, 39% said they would vote in favour, 61% said they would vote against.

The survey asked the questions as mock-ballot papers, which as ballot papers tend not to have abstain or don’t know boxes, means it gets answers from the vast majority of people. If you instead take only those who said they were 10/10 certain to vote it shifts things slightly in favour of extra devolution or independence, with respondents backing devo-max by 60-40 and opposing Scottish independence by 41-59.


Last night’s YouGov poll also included questions on Scottish independence, while ICM carried out parallel English and Scottish polls for the Sunday Telegraph. YouGov found strong support for a referendum on Scottish independence, with 61% of people supporting holding a referendum (including 76% of respondents in Scotland), although as we’ve noted before, referendums are intrinsically popular – I’ve yet to see a poll question showing people don’t want a referendum on something!

On timing, the balance of support in Britain as a whole seems to be for a referendum earlier than 2014. In YouGov’s poll 36% support a referendum this year or next year, 23% support a referendum in 2014, 7% later. ICM found a similar balance in England – 52% supporting a referendum as soon as possible compared to 25% who would prefer a referendum in 2014. In Scotland, however, there is more support for a delay to 2014 – ICM’s Scottish poll found 43% support a referendum as soon as possible, 41% support a delay. In YouGov’s Scottish subsample 25% would like a referendum this year or next year, 52% would refer a delay until 2014.

Asked about the referendum, neither poll had a straight “how would you vote” quesion. In YouGov’s poll they asked if people would support or oppose Scotland becoming a country independent from the UK. Overall 37% of people supported Scottish independence, 39% opposed it. Amongst respondents in Scotland the split was 45% support/ 45% oppose, amongst respondents in England the split was 36% support and 39% oppose.

ICM asked if people approved or disapproved of Scottish independence – in Scotland the split was similar to YouGov’s: 40% approved, 43% disapproved. In ICM’s English poll there was higher support, 43% of English respondents approved, 32% disapproved.

ICM also asked what people’s preference would be in a three question referendum – in Scotland 37% said they would prefer the status quo, 26% full tax and spending control, 26% full independence (Of course, if there was a 3 question referendum it looks as though it would be two seperate questions, not one three way question)

ICM found that 51% of English respondents thought that Scotland would be worse off if independent, with only 23% thinking they’d be better off. In Scotland the split was 38% of respondents who thought Scotland would be better off, 41% worse off. YouGov asked similar questions for both Scotland and England – again, a majority of respondents in England thought that Scotland would be worse off outside the union, with Scottish respondents more evenly split. For the English question, 36% of respondents in England thought that England would be better off without Scotland, 17% worse off. Most Scottish respondents thought that England would be worse off without Scotland.

In short, English respondents tend to think that Scotland gains more from the Union than England does, and in ICM’s poll at least this makes them more likely to support Scottish independence. Scottish respondents remain more divided about whether the Union benefits Scotland or not, and hence opinions on Scottish independence are also more evenly divided.

As we head towards a referendum there will no doubt be an awful lot more polling on Scottish independence. The figures on how people would vote in a referendum are probably not very meaningful right now – that’s one thing we should learn from the AV referendum – more important right now is understanding the broader opinions and concerns that lay behind those opinions and I expect we’ll have a lot more to mull over in the weeks and months to come.