So far we’ve had two new GB polls today, both continuing to show the race pretty much neck-and-neck:

  • Populus’s twice-weekly poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4% (tabs). Note that Populus appear to have made a slight methodology change – their tables include a reallocation of don’t knows, which has the effect of slightly increasing Lib Dem support and decreasing Labour support.
  • Meanwhile a new Survation poll for the Mirror had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 3% (tabs are here)

Elsewhere Lord Ashcroft released his latest, and final, batch of constituency polls – ten constituency polls in a mix of different types of seat. The full details are here:

  • Four of the polls revisited Con-Lab marginals where Lord Ashcroft’s previous polling had found a tight race. In Norwich North (2 point Labour lead), Pudsey (1 point Tory lead) and Wirral West (3 point Labour lead) he found little difference from his previous polls, in Croydon Central he found better news for the Conservatives, with a four point Tory lead compared to a four point Labour lead in March.
  • Another poll revisted the LD-Con marginal of North Cornwall, finding the same two point Liberal Democrat lead as the previous poll in March.
  • Three of the polls were newly surveyed seats – Battersea had been speculated as a seat where the Tories were in trouble, but Ashcroft’s poll found no swing since the election and a twelve point Tory lead. In Stourbridge he found a 4.5% swing from Con-to-Lab, leaving the Conservatives only 2 points ahead. Best of all for Labour was Peterborough, a seat the Conservatives won in 2005, where Ashcroft found a 6 point swing to Labour, putting them 2 points ahead.
  • Finally Ashcroft repolled two Scottish seats. In Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (currently the only Conservative seat in Scotland) he found the SNP increasing their lead, up to eleven points from two points last month. In East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy’s seat, he found the tide moving away from the SNP (possibly due to tactical voting by Tory voters) – in April his poll gave the SNP a nine point lead, the latest poll has them leading by only three points.

Weekly Round up

I’m not going through all this week’s polling like I normally do on Friday’s – frankly there has been too much – but just to complete the record set, the UKPR polling average for the final week of the campaign shows figures of CON 34%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 14%(nc), GRN 5%(nc), pushing the Tories slightly ahead.

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc, the Guardian and YouGov are below, with the majority of them now suggesting the Conservatives will win slightly more seats than Labour, though only Steve Fisher’s model predicts a Parliament where any sort of Conservative-led government looks feasible.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 290(+4), LAB 258(-5), LD 25(-1), SNP 53(+2), UKIP 3(-1)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 280(-3), LAB 268(-2), LD 27(+3), SNP 49(+1), UKIP 2(+1)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 275(+5), LAB 267(-6), LD 27(+1), SNP 56(+1), UKIP 2(-1)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 276(+3), LAB 267(-1), LD 27(-1), SNP 55(nc), UKIP 3(-1)
YouGov Nowcast – Hung Parliament, CON 272(+2), LAB 276(-1), LD 24(-3), SNP 52(+2), UKIP 3(nc)


Two weeks to go

A brief summary of this week’s polls before I have some downtime:

YouGov/Sun (17/4) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Opinium/Observer (17/4) – CON 36%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
YouGov/S Times (18/4) – CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (19/4) – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Ashcroft (19/4) – CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%
Populus (19/4) – CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%
ICM/Guardian (19/4) – CON 34%, LAB 32%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5%
TNS (20/4) – CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (20/4) – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (21/4) – CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (22/4) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
ComRes/ITV/Mail (22/4) – CON 36%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5%
Populus (23/4) – CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (23/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
Panelbase (23/4) – CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%
Survation/Mirror (23/4) – CON 33%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4%

The UKPR polling average continues to show a tie – CON 33%(-1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 14%(nc), GRN 5%(nc). Some of the individual pollsters are showing consistent leads for one party or the other (YouGov and Populus, for example, are generally showing small Labour leads, ICM and Ashcroft small Conservative leads) so it’s not the case that all the pollsters are showing an exact tie, more than the average of the different companies’ house effects is neck and neck.

Other polls

There was one Scottish poll this week – a new YouGov poll that confirmed their previous 24 point lead for the SNP (tabs), there was also a new YouGov poll of London for the Evening Standard with topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5% (tabs).

There were three constituency polls. Lord Ashcroft released two extra constituency polls with his weekly GB poll, showing the SNP ahead in Edinburgh North and Leith and Edinburgh South. Meanwhile Survation released a new poll of Thanet South, showing Nigel Farage nine points ahead. We should have some more constituency polls from Lord Ashcroft first thing tomorrow morning, including a poll of Rochester and Strood.

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc, the Guardian and YouGov are below, all continue to show a hung Parliament, but the models disagree on whether the Tories or Labour will be ahead on seats – Elections Etc, Election Forecast and the Guardian all have the Conservatives with more seats, YouGov and the Guardian have Labour slightly ahead.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 286(-6), LAB 263(+3), LD 26(+4), SNP 51(nc), UKIP 4(nc)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 283(+3), LAB 270(-7), LD 24(-3), SNP 48(+6), UKIP 1(nc)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 270(+2), LAB 273(-3), LD 26(nc), SNP 55(+1), UKIP 3(nc)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 273(+4), LAB 268(-3), LD 28(-1), SNP 55(nc), UKIP 4(nc)
YouGov Nowcast – Hung Parliament, CON 270(+4), LAB 277(-2), LD 27(nc), SNP 50(nc), UKIP 3(-2)


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Three weeks to go

Here are this week’s GB polls:

Opinium/Observer (9/4) – CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (10/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
YouGov/S Times (11/4) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (12/4) – CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Ashcroft (12/4) – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
ICM/Guardian (12/4) – CON 39%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7%, GRN 7%
Populus (12/4) – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (13/4) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
TNS (13/4) – CON 34%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (14/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (15/4) – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Ipsos MORI/Standard (15/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%
Panelbase (16/4) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (16/4) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Populus (16/4) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 4%
Survation/Mirror (17/4) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 3%

Voting intention continues to be pretty much static, with levels of Conservative and Labour support extremely close. There were sixteen polls published in the last week, nine had the two parties within a point of each other. The UKPR polling average is back to showing a tie – CON 34%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 14%(-1), GRN 5%(nc). It is hardly been an exciting election campaign anyway, but certainly nothing seems to have made any significant impact upon voting intention and we are running out of time for anything to do so. The first postal ballots will have gone out this week.

Other polls

This week we’ve also had ComRes polling of Lib Dem seats in the South West and Ashcroft polling of some seats in Scotland. I’ve written about both of them at length already – Ashcroft here and ComRes here.

Week fifteen

This week was manifesto week – the five main GB parties all published their manifestos, though the SNP are saving theirs for later in the campaign. YouGov have done two bits of polling on the manifesto for the Times and the Sun.

The most widely supported policy in the Labour manifesto was to reduce the deficit every year (76% support – largely because it got the backing of Tory voters too), followed by the promise to raise the minimum wage to £8 (71% support), freezing utility bills (65%) and the mansion tax (61%) – none of their main policy announcements got a thumbs down.

Looking at the Conservative manifesto the most popular policy was linking the personal tax allowance to the minimum wage (supported by 80%, again because it got wide cross party support), followed by stopping above inflation rail fare rises (67%) and lowering the benefit cap to £23k (65%). Unlike Labour some of the main Conservative policies got a thumbs down – opening 500 new Free Schools only got 26% support, the flagship announcement of extending right to buy to housing associations only got 28% support.

I shall make my usual caveats about overestimating the importance of individual policies. Despite Labour’s individual policies polling better, in the same poll the Conservatives had a narrow lead on having the best policies and ideas for the country (29% Conservative, 26% Labour). Neither do people pay much attention to these announcements – a separate YouGov poll for the Sun found that the right to buy policy was the only one of the manifesto policy announcements tested that a majority of people could correctly link to the right party – in most cases less than a third of people were able to say which party had proposed it.

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc, the Guardian and YouGov are below, as well as the less regular prediction from the Polling Observatory team who released some new numbers today. As ever, all show a hung Parliament, but most are now showing Labour with more seats in a hung Parliament – with the notable exception of Steve Fisher’s model, which has the Tories with about 30 more seats than Labour. On the subject of the differences between the models, Chris Hanretty of the Election Forecast team wrote a blog post earlier this week.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 292(+3), LAB 260(-6), LD 22(nc), SNP 51(+2), UKIP 4(-1)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 280(-2), LAB 277(+2), LD 27(-1), SNP 42(+1), UKIP 1(nc)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 268(+3), LAB 276(-3), LD 26(nc), SNP 54(nc), UKIP 3(nc)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 269(-2), LAB 271(nc), LD 29(nc), SNP 55(+2), UKIP 4(nc)
YouGov Nowcast – Hung Parliament, CON 266(+2), LAB 279(+2), LD 27(-1), SNP 50(-5), UKIP 5(+1)
Polling Observatory – Hung Parliament, CON 268, LAB 278, LD 28, SNP 49, UKIP 3


Four weeks to go

Here are this week’s polls – slightly fewer than usual because of the Easter bank holiday, meaning we didn’t get the usual Ashcroft poll on Monday.

Survation/Mirror (3/4) – CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 18%, GRN 3%
Opinium/Observer (3/4) – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%
YouGov/S Times (4/4) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%
Populus (6/4) – CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (7/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
TNS BMRB (7/4) – CON 30%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 19%, GRN 4%
ComRes/ITV/Mail (8/4) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (8/4) – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Populus (8/4) – CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (9/4) – CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
Panelbase (9/4) – CON 31%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4%
Survation/Mirror (9/4) – CON 31%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%

Most of the polls continue to be close (with a couple of notable exceptions towards the end of the week), but we’ve seen significantly more Labour than Conservative leads in the last week, putting the UKPR polling average back to a one point Labour lead – CON 33%(-1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 15%(+1), GRN 5%(nc). It’s too early to be confident there has been any real change, but it’s worth keeping an eye on it.

Scottish, constituency and other polling

If it hasn’t been too busy a week for GB polls, there has been a wide selection of other polls. Last weekend there was a ComRes poll of Thanet South (the seat where Nigel Farage is standing) which showed the race as almost a dead heat between the Conservatives, UKIP and Labour. It provoked an attempt by UKIP to try and pooh-pooh ComRes’s methodology, which I wrote about at length here.

There were two Scottish polls, both of them showing no sign of the SNP’s lead fading away. Panelbase found an SNP lead of 16 points over Labour, up from 10 in their previous poll (though it’s possible that was connected to question order). Tabs for that are here. Last night YouGov put out a new Scottish poll conducted after the first of the Scottish leader debates and straddling the second of them – it found the SNP’s lead growing, up to 24 points over Labour. Tabs for that are here.

Lord Ashcroft released another batch of his own constituency polling mid-week, this time returning to some Con -v- Lab marginal seats where he had previously found tight races. These don’t tell us much about the national race (they were a selection of seats that were showing a smaller than average swing to begin with) but give us some details on the individual races. More details here.

Finally, I saw an unusual county level poll of Kent today – conducted by Facts International (the company who do the fieldwork for ComRes’s phone polls for the Mail). They found voting intentions in Kent of CON 39%, LAB 22%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 24%. That would be a 5% swing from Con to Lab, which on a uniform swing wouldn’t be enough for any seats to change hands (Labour’s closest target seat in Kent is Dover, which needs a 5.2% swing). Of course, the seats in Kent that are actually most interesting are not Labour targets, but UKIP ones – holding Rochester & Strood and trying to win Thanet South, and a uniform swing across Kent isn’t much good in predicting the distribution of UKIP’s vote.

Week Fourteen

This week doesn’t seem to have been a good one for the Conservatives. The start of the week was was largely dominated by Labour’s policy on non-doms, the end over arguments about Trident which became overshadowed by rows about the language Michael Fallon used to criticise Ed Miliband. How you tax rich people and whether or not the Conservatives are too nasty, to put it mildly, strong issues for the Tories. I expect we’ll get polling on all of these issues at the weekend.

Yesterday was also the close of nominations for the general election. I’ll be trying to get the Election Guide part of the site updated as soon as possible to reflect the full official candidate lists (so excuse me if I go a bit quiet!)

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc, the Guardian and YouGov are below. As ever, all show a hung Parliament – currently two are predicting the Tories to have more seats, two Labour to have more seats, and the Guardian’s model a dead heat.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 289(-11), LAB 266(+8), LD 22(+2), SNP 49(+2), UKIP 5(nc)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 282(-2), LAB 275(-1), LD 28(+2), SNP 41(+1), UKIP 1(nc)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 265(-13), LAB 279(+12), LD 26(+1), SNP 54(nc), UKIP 3(nc)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 271(-5), LAB 271(+1), LD 29(+1), SNP 53(+3), UKIP 4(nc)
YouGov Nowcast – Hung Parliament, CON 264(+2), LAB 277(+1), LD 28(nc), SNP 55(-1), UKIP 4(-3)


Five weeks to go

A light round up this week – I’m taking it easy for the Easter weekend in advance of the long slog ahead. Here are this week’s polls (note Opinium one is a little older than some of last week’s polls – in these round ups I include polls published in the last week, even if the fieldwork is a little older.

Opinium/Observer (25/3) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%
YouGov/S Times (28/3) – CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
ComRes/ITV/Mail (29/3) – CON 36%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
Ashcroft (29/3) – CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 10%, GRN 7%
Populus (29/3) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%
TNS BMRB (30/3) – CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (30/3) – CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (31/3) – CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
Populus (1/4) – CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (1/4) – CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (2/4) – CON 37%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
Panelbase (2/4) – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 5%

The week started out with a bit of a false alarm as the first poll conducted after the Paxman interviews produced a four point Labour lead. It wasn’t repeated in other polling, with the rest of the week showing more typical neck-and-neck polling. The UKPR polling average is back to showing the Conservatives and Labour equal – CON 34%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 14%(nc), GRN 5%(nc).

Constituency, London, Scottish and Welsh polls

Lord Ashcroft released a new batch of constituency polls, this time revisiting some previously polled Lib Dem seats. As with his previous polling of Lib Dem seats, the key finding was variation – in some areas the Lib Dems are collapsing, in other areas they are holding up well. I wrote more about all the seats polled here, but the one that got the most attention was Sheffield Hallam, which still showed Nick Clegg’s own seat at some risk.

There were also new YouGov and ComRes polls in London, which showed 11 point and 14 point leads for Labour in the capital, and a ComRes poll in Labour held seats in Scotland, showing a swing of 19 points from Lab to SNP, the equivalent of a 16 point SNP lead in a Scottish poll. The latest YouGov poll in Wales had topline figures of CON 25%, LAB 40%, LDEM 5%, Plaid 11%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%.

Week thirteen

The main event of the political week was the seven way leaders debate. The initial polls after the debate did not show any clear winner – different polling companies showed different politicians ahead, but broadly speaking there was a pretty even divide between Nicola Sturgeon, Ed Milband, David Cameron and Nigel Farage. It seems unlikely that a debate that produced no clear winner will have any dramatic effect upon people’s voting intentions, but we need to wait and see the evidence. While Nigel Farage didn’t win the debate, he did poll better than UKIP currently are in the polls, so it may give his party a boost. While the SNP aren’t standing across most of Britain, Nicola Sturgeon doing well could blunt the Conservative party’s warning about a Labour government reliant on SNP support.

Next week we have the close of nominations, so we’ll actually know how many candidates each party is standing. We also have the leaders debate in Scotland to come.

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc and the Guardian are below. I’ve also added the Nowcast from YouGov’s new model, which currently shows a hung Parliament like everyone else, but with more Labour seats than Conservative.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 300(+4), LAB 258(-3), LD 20(-1), SNP 47(nc), UKIP 5(nc)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 284(+1), LAB 276(-4), LD 26(nc), SNP 40(+2), UKIP 1(nc)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 278(+5), LAB 267(-4), LD 25(+1), SNP 54(-1), UKIP 3(-2)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 276(-1), LAB 270(+1), LD 28(+3), SNP 50(-3), UKIP 4(nc)
YouGov Nowcast – Hung Parliament, CON 262, LAB 276, LD 28, SNP 56, UKIP 7