Three weeks to go

Here are this week’s GB polls:

Opinium/Observer (9/4) – CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (10/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
YouGov/S Times (11/4) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (12/4) – CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Ashcroft (12/4) – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
ICM/Guardian (12/4) – CON 39%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7%, GRN 7%
Populus (12/4) – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (13/4) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
TNS (13/4) – CON 34%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (14/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (15/4) – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Ipsos MORI/Standard (15/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%
Panelbase (16/4) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (16/4) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Populus (16/4) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 4%
Survation/Mirror (17/4) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 3%

Voting intention continues to be pretty much static, with levels of Conservative and Labour support extremely close. There were sixteen polls published in the last week, nine had the two parties within a point of each other. The UKPR polling average is back to showing a tie – CON 34%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 14%(-1), GRN 5%(nc). It is hardly been an exciting election campaign anyway, but certainly nothing seems to have made any significant impact upon voting intention and we are running out of time for anything to do so. The first postal ballots will have gone out this week.

Other polls

This week we’ve also had ComRes polling of Lib Dem seats in the South West and Ashcroft polling of some seats in Scotland. I’ve written about both of them at length already – Ashcroft here and ComRes here.

Week fifteen

This week was manifesto week – the five main GB parties all published their manifestos, though the SNP are saving theirs for later in the campaign. YouGov have done two bits of polling on the manifesto for the Times and the Sun.

The most widely supported policy in the Labour manifesto was to reduce the deficit every year (76% support – largely because it got the backing of Tory voters too), followed by the promise to raise the minimum wage to £8 (71% support), freezing utility bills (65%) and the mansion tax (61%) – none of their main policy announcements got a thumbs down.

Looking at the Conservative manifesto the most popular policy was linking the personal tax allowance to the minimum wage (supported by 80%, again because it got wide cross party support), followed by stopping above inflation rail fare rises (67%) and lowering the benefit cap to £23k (65%). Unlike Labour some of the main Conservative policies got a thumbs down – opening 500 new Free Schools only got 26% support, the flagship announcement of extending right to buy to housing associations only got 28% support.

I shall make my usual caveats about overestimating the importance of individual policies. Despite Labour’s individual policies polling better, in the same poll the Conservatives had a narrow lead on having the best policies and ideas for the country (29% Conservative, 26% Labour). Neither do people pay much attention to these announcements – a separate YouGov poll for the Sun found that the right to buy policy was the only one of the manifesto policy announcements tested that a majority of people could correctly link to the right party – in most cases less than a third of people were able to say which party had proposed it.

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc, the Guardian and YouGov are below, as well as the less regular prediction from the Polling Observatory team who released some new numbers today. As ever, all show a hung Parliament, but most are now showing Labour with more seats in a hung Parliament – with the notable exception of Steve Fisher’s model, which has the Tories with about 30 more seats than Labour. On the subject of the differences between the models, Chris Hanretty of the Election Forecast team wrote a blog post earlier this week.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 292(+3), LAB 260(-6), LD 22(nc), SNP 51(+2), UKIP 4(-1)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 280(-2), LAB 277(+2), LD 27(-1), SNP 42(+1), UKIP 1(nc)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 268(+3), LAB 276(-3), LD 26(nc), SNP 54(nc), UKIP 3(nc)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 269(-2), LAB 271(nc), LD 29(nc), SNP 55(+2), UKIP 4(nc)
YouGov Nowcast – Hung Parliament, CON 266(+2), LAB 279(+2), LD 27(-1), SNP 50(-5), UKIP 5(+1)
Polling Observatory – Hung Parliament, CON 268, LAB 278, LD 28, SNP 49, UKIP 3


Four weeks to go

Here are this week’s polls – slightly fewer than usual because of the Easter bank holiday, meaning we didn’t get the usual Ashcroft poll on Monday.

Survation/Mirror (3/4) – CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 18%, GRN 3%
Opinium/Observer (3/4) – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%
YouGov/S Times (4/4) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%
Populus (6/4) – CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (7/4) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
TNS BMRB (7/4) – CON 30%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 19%, GRN 4%
ComRes/ITV/Mail (8/4) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (8/4) – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Populus (8/4) – CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (9/4) – CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%
Panelbase (9/4) – CON 31%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4%
Survation/Mirror (9/4) – CON 31%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%

Most of the polls continue to be close (with a couple of notable exceptions towards the end of the week), but we’ve seen significantly more Labour than Conservative leads in the last week, putting the UKPR polling average back to a one point Labour lead – CON 33%(-1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 15%(+1), GRN 5%(nc). It’s too early to be confident there has been any real change, but it’s worth keeping an eye on it.

Scottish, constituency and other polling

If it hasn’t been too busy a week for GB polls, there has been a wide selection of other polls. Last weekend there was a ComRes poll of Thanet South (the seat where Nigel Farage is standing) which showed the race as almost a dead heat between the Conservatives, UKIP and Labour. It provoked an attempt by UKIP to try and pooh-pooh ComRes’s methodology, which I wrote about at length here.

There were two Scottish polls, both of them showing no sign of the SNP’s lead fading away. Panelbase found an SNP lead of 16 points over Labour, up from 10 in their previous poll (though it’s possible that was connected to question order). Tabs for that are here. Last night YouGov put out a new Scottish poll conducted after the first of the Scottish leader debates and straddling the second of them – it found the SNP’s lead growing, up to 24 points over Labour. Tabs for that are here.

Lord Ashcroft released another batch of his own constituency polling mid-week, this time returning to some Con -v- Lab marginal seats where he had previously found tight races. These don’t tell us much about the national race (they were a selection of seats that were showing a smaller than average swing to begin with) but give us some details on the individual races. More details here.

Finally, I saw an unusual county level poll of Kent today – conducted by Facts International (the company who do the fieldwork for ComRes’s phone polls for the Mail). They found voting intentions in Kent of CON 39%, LAB 22%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 24%. That would be a 5% swing from Con to Lab, which on a uniform swing wouldn’t be enough for any seats to change hands (Labour’s closest target seat in Kent is Dover, which needs a 5.2% swing). Of course, the seats in Kent that are actually most interesting are not Labour targets, but UKIP ones – holding Rochester & Strood and trying to win Thanet South, and a uniform swing across Kent isn’t much good in predicting the distribution of UKIP’s vote.

Week Fourteen

This week doesn’t seem to have been a good one for the Conservatives. The start of the week was was largely dominated by Labour’s policy on non-doms, the end over arguments about Trident which became overshadowed by rows about the language Michael Fallon used to criticise Ed Miliband. How you tax rich people and whether or not the Conservatives are too nasty, to put it mildly, strong issues for the Tories. I expect we’ll get polling on all of these issues at the weekend.

Yesterday was also the close of nominations for the general election. I’ll be trying to get the Election Guide part of the site updated as soon as possible to reflect the full official candidate lists (so excuse me if I go a bit quiet!)

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc, the Guardian and YouGov are below. As ever, all show a hung Parliament – currently two are predicting the Tories to have more seats, two Labour to have more seats, and the Guardian’s model a dead heat.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 289(-11), LAB 266(+8), LD 22(+2), SNP 49(+2), UKIP 5(nc)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 282(-2), LAB 275(-1), LD 28(+2), SNP 41(+1), UKIP 1(nc)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 265(-13), LAB 279(+12), LD 26(+1), SNP 54(nc), UKIP 3(nc)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 271(-5), LAB 271(+1), LD 29(+1), SNP 53(+3), UKIP 4(nc)
YouGov Nowcast – Hung Parliament, CON 264(+2), LAB 277(+1), LD 28(nc), SNP 55(-1), UKIP 4(-3)


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Five weeks to go

A light round up this week – I’m taking it easy for the Easter weekend in advance of the long slog ahead. Here are this week’s polls (note Opinium one is a little older than some of last week’s polls – in these round ups I include polls published in the last week, even if the fieldwork is a little older.

Opinium/Observer (25/3) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%
YouGov/S Times (28/3) – CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
ComRes/ITV/Mail (29/3) – CON 36%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
Ashcroft (29/3) – CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 10%, GRN 7%
Populus (29/3) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%
TNS BMRB (30/3) – CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (30/3) – CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (31/3) – CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
Populus (1/4) – CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (1/4) – CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (2/4) – CON 37%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
Panelbase (2/4) – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 5%

The week started out with a bit of a false alarm as the first poll conducted after the Paxman interviews produced a four point Labour lead. It wasn’t repeated in other polling, with the rest of the week showing more typical neck-and-neck polling. The UKPR polling average is back to showing the Conservatives and Labour equal – CON 34%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 14%(nc), GRN 5%(nc).

Constituency, London, Scottish and Welsh polls

Lord Ashcroft released a new batch of constituency polls, this time revisiting some previously polled Lib Dem seats. As with his previous polling of Lib Dem seats, the key finding was variation – in some areas the Lib Dems are collapsing, in other areas they are holding up well. I wrote more about all the seats polled here, but the one that got the most attention was Sheffield Hallam, which still showed Nick Clegg’s own seat at some risk.

There were also new YouGov and ComRes polls in London, which showed 11 point and 14 point leads for Labour in the capital, and a ComRes poll in Labour held seats in Scotland, showing a swing of 19 points from Lab to SNP, the equivalent of a 16 point SNP lead in a Scottish poll. The latest YouGov poll in Wales had topline figures of CON 25%, LAB 40%, LDEM 5%, Plaid 11%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%.

Week thirteen

The main event of the political week was the seven way leaders debate. The initial polls after the debate did not show any clear winner – different polling companies showed different politicians ahead, but broadly speaking there was a pretty even divide between Nicola Sturgeon, Ed Milband, David Cameron and Nigel Farage. It seems unlikely that a debate that produced no clear winner will have any dramatic effect upon people’s voting intentions, but we need to wait and see the evidence. While Nigel Farage didn’t win the debate, he did poll better than UKIP currently are in the polls, so it may give his party a boost. While the SNP aren’t standing across most of Britain, Nicola Sturgeon doing well could blunt the Conservative party’s warning about a Labour government reliant on SNP support.

Next week we have the close of nominations, so we’ll actually know how many candidates each party is standing. We also have the leaders debate in Scotland to come.

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc and the Guardian are below. I’ve also added the Nowcast from YouGov’s new model, which currently shows a hung Parliament like everyone else, but with more Labour seats than Conservative.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 300(+4), LAB 258(-3), LD 20(-1), SNP 47(nc), UKIP 5(nc)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 284(+1), LAB 276(-4), LD 26(nc), SNP 40(+2), UKIP 1(nc)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 278(+5), LAB 267(-4), LD 25(+1), SNP 54(-1), UKIP 3(-2)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 276(-1), LAB 270(+1), LD 28(+3), SNP 50(-3), UKIP 4(nc)
YouGov Nowcast – Hung Parliament, CON 262, LAB 276, LD 28, SNP 56, UKIP 7


Six weeks to go

Here are this week’s polls:

Opinium/Observer (19/3) – CON 36%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
YouGov/S Times (20/2) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Survation/MoS (21/3) – CON 30%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 17%, GRN 3%
Populus(22/3) – CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%
Ashcroft (22/3) – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
ComRes/Mail (22/3) – CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 7%
YouGov/Times (23/3) – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun (23/3) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (24/3) – CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
Survation/Mirror (25/3) – CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (25/3) – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
Panelbase (26/3) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (26/3) – CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Populus (26/3) – CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%

It’s been a busy week in terms of voting intention polls – ComRes have now moved to weekly polling for the Daily Mail, Survation did two ones (one for the Mail on Sunday and one for the Mirror) and we got the first UK poll from Panelbase. Five of the polls showed dead heats between Labour and the Conservatives, there were three Tory leads and six Labour leads. The bigger picture remains one of the two main parties being neck-and-neck, but there have been slightly more Labour leads than Tory ones in recent polls, so the UKPR polling average this week has Labour one point ahead – CON 33%(nc), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 14%(nc), GRN 5%(-1).

Scottish and London polls

ICM had new Scottish and London polls out this week. In Scotland they found Westminster voting intentions of CON 14%(+1), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 6%(nc), SNP 43%(nc), UKIP 7%(nc), GRN 3%(-1), changes are from their previous Scottish poll in December. At 16 points ICM show a slightly smaller SNP lead than some other companies, but there is no significant change from their previous poll, suggesting its something methodological rather than a narrowing of the SNP lead.

This morning ICM had a London poll for the Guardian. Voting intentions for that were CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 9%, GRN 8%. That represents a four point swing from Conservative to Labour since the general election – the equivalent of a one point Labour lead in national polls – so again suggests that the swing in London is much the same as in the rest of the country.

Week 12

  • David Cameron ruled out standing for a third term as Prime Minister. Unusual not because of the content – if he wins he was widely expected to stand down at some point after the European referendum anyway – but because he said it, out loud, to a journalist. In terms of public opinion 55% of people said Cameron was right to rule out a third term, 18% wrong. A majority of supporters of all parties – including Tory voters – thought it was the right thing to do. 21% of people said it made them think better of Cameron, 9% worse of him, but for the majority of people it made no difference to how they viewed him.
  • The final PMQs of the Parliament was dominated by exchanges on ruling out tax rises. Asked before Cameron ruled out a VAT rise and Ed Balls ruled out a National Insurance rise, at the start of the week YouGov found 43% of people expected tax to go up if Labour won, 29% expect it to go up if the Conservatives win. Under a Labour government, 43% expected income tax to rise, 41% expected fuel duty to rise, 39% expected national insurance to rise… but only 22% expected VAT to go up. Under a Tory government 34% expected fuel duty to rise, 31% expected VAT to rise, 29% expected NI to rise and 25% expected income tax to rise.
  • The debate debate finally came to an end with an agreement to have four events: a Paxman interrogation of Miliband and Cameron; a seven-way debate between Cameron, Miliband, Clegg, Farage, Uncle Tom Cobley and all; a debate between the five opposition parties and a Question Time special with Cameron, Miliband and Clegg, one after the other. The Paxman interrogation took place last night. An ICM poll straight after the debate found people thought Cameron came out better than Miliband by 54% to 46% – we will have to wait until the weekend to see if it has any impact upon either voting intentions or perceptions of the leaders. Over the last five years Cameron has consistently had better ratings than Miliband, so in many ways a performance that’s pretty even has the potential to help Miliband far more than Cameron. As ever, time will tell.
  • The physical mechanics of the general election have started to kick in. Yesterday Parliament was prorogued, on Monday it will be dissolved and the writ issued and we’ll be off. The start of the formal campaign means various bits of regulation kick in, including the broadcasting restrictions requiring coverage of the main parties and spending limits upon the parties.

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc and the Guardian are below (the Polling Observatory team are doing fortnightly predictions, so nothing new from them this week). Three of the models continue to show the Conservatives with just a few more seats than Labour, but Steve Fisher’s prediction from Elections Etc now has them 35 ahead of Labour. This is due to a methodology change rather than a move in opinion – Steve’s model for predicting the vote shares in England & Wales remains unchanged, but he’s no longer assuming such a big drop in SNP support in Scotland, and has rejigged how he translates projected votes into seats based on Ashcroft and YouGov polling (it’s explained in more detail here.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 296(+12), LAB 261(-17), LD 21(nc), SNP 47(+6), UKIP 5(+2)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 283(-1), LAB 280(+2), LD 26(+1), SNP 38(-2), UKIP 1(nc)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 273(-4), LAB 271(+3), LD 24(nc), SNP 55(nc), UKIP 5(+2)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 277(nc), LAB 269(+1), LD 25(nc), SNP 53(-1), UKIP 4(nc)


Seven Weeks to Go

Here are this week’s polls:

Opinium/Observer (12/3) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%
YouGov/S Times (13/3) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
ComRes/Indy on Sunday (13/3) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4%
ICM/Guardian (15/3) – CON 36%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 9%, GRN 4%
Populus (15/3) – CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Ashcroft (15/3) – CON 31%, LAB 29%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%
YouGov/Sun (16/3) – CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%
TNS BMRB (16/3) – CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%
YouGov/Sun (17/3) – CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (18/3) – CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
YouGov/Sun (19/3) – CON 35%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
Populus (19/3) – CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 17%, GRN 5%

After a wafer thin Tory lead in the UKPR polling average last week, this week Labour and Conservative are neck-and-neck: CON 33%(nc), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 14%(-1), GRN 6%(nc). The consistent small Labour lead we had for most of the year has vanished, but the Conservatives have not managed to open one of their own.

Scottish and constituency polls

Survation put out a new Scottish poll this week (in fact they put out new – a new one for the Daily Record, and an older one for Unison). Both showed the SNP lead in Scotland holding strong, and no sign of any movement back to Labour. There was also a new batch of Ashcroft polling which I discussed here

Budget Week

This week was the most significant fixed event of the year before the general election. We still have the parties’ manifesto launches and (perhaps) a debate or debates of some sort, but the budget was indisputably one of the most important known unknowns that could potentially change public opinion before the election. The commentariat invariably spend the run up to the budget speculating about what rabbits the Chancellor will pull out of the hat to make a major impact on the election – history suggests it very rarely happens. There are examples of government support slumping after bad budgets – one of the biggest shifts in public opinion this Parliament came after the bodged 2012 “omnishambles” budget – but precious few of them of them giving a government a substantial boost.

We are not yet in a position to judge whether or not the 2015 budget had any effect. The initial post-budget polling from YouGov gave it a thumbs up – more people thought it was fair than unfair, more people thought it would make them better off than worse off. Most however thought it made no difference, and even a positive reaction does not automatically lead to any impact on the polls. The two voting intention polls we’ve seen since the budget do not point to any big shift – YouGov showed the Conservatives up, but Populus showed them down.

Beyond the budget there was another tiptoe forward in the debate debate. The broadcasters are reportedly now offering one seven way debate on ITV, a Paxman grilling of Miliband and Cameron on Channel4/Sky and two Question Time style events on BBC – one for UKIP, the SNP, Plaid and the Greens, one with Miliband, Clegg and Cameron, but separately. Cameron has agreed to the seven way debate, but all else seems unconfirmed. The first event – the Paxman grilling – is pencilled in to take place next Thursday though, so one way or another, decisions will be made next week.

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc and the Guardian are below, as well as the new model from the Polling Observatory team. As usual all the models predict a hung Parliament – most have the Tories with marginally more seats than Labour, Polling Observatory have Labour with a 20 seat lead.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 284(-1), LAB 278(-1), LD 21(-1), SNP 41(+1), UKIP 3(nc)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 284(-4), LAB 278(+7), LD 25(-1), SNP 40(-2), UKIP 1(nc)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 277(-4), LAB 268(+5), LD 24(nc), SNP 55(nc), UKIP 3(-1)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 277(-2), LAB 268(+3), LD 25(-2), SNP 54(+1), UKIP 4(nc)
Polling Observatory – Hung Parliament, CON 265, LAB 285, LDEM 24, SNP 49, UKIP 3