A couple of tight polls today. The weekly telephone poll by Lord Ascroft has topline figures for CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% (tabs here). Meanwhile the twice-weekly online poll by Populus this morning had figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 3% (tabs are here)
Along with the Ipsos MORI poll last week showing the Conservatives just ahead one might be forgiven for thinking that adds up to a narrowing of the polls. I’d be a bit cautious – the YouGov daily tracker had a three point lead at the weekend and a couple of sixes last week, the Opinium poll on Sunday had an eight point Labour lead. I think we’re probably just seeing a couple of low polls randomly turn up at the same time… though of course, time will tell.
This week will obviously be dominated by Scottish polling – we have Opinium’s first Scottish referendum poll tonight, and possibly a Panelbase poll, and then final call polls from at least YouGov, MORI, Opinium and Survation next week. In the meantime though a quick detour to update the latest GB voting intention polls; we had three of them on Friday:
Populus – CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13% (tabs)
Ipsos MORI – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15% (tabs)
YouGov – CON 31%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16% (tabs)
After their summer break Lord Ashcroft’s weekly GB poll start up again today with topline figures of CON 28%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. Tabs are here.
Meanwhile this morning’s twice weekly Populus poll has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Tabs are here.
Later on tonight there is also a TNS Scottish poll due to be published, so we shall see if the sharp narrowing in YouGov’s recent polling is echoed or not.
Scotland is likely to be the focus of polling for the next fortnight, but a brief update on the latest GB voting intention polls. Populus this morning has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 4% (full tables are here). Meanwhile today’s edition of the daily YouGov poll has toplines of CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16% (full tables here).
A quick update with our regular Monday polls from Populus and Lord Ashcroft:
Populus‘s topline figures today were CON 35%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 3%. Tabs are here.
Ashcroft‘s figures are CON 30%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. Tabs are here.
Lord Ashcroft’s weekly polls are now pausing for the summer holidays, they are back on September 8th. I don’t know if Populus are doing the same (they often used to when they did telephone polls, but last year they continued with their online polls through the summer), certainly the daily YouGov polls will be rolling on as usual for August – they normally only stop for the Christmas and New Year period.