We have our usual three Monday polls today:
The weekly Lord Ashcroft poll has topline figures of CON 27%(-6), CON 33%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 17%(+3), GRN 6%(nc). The drop in Conservative support looks striking, but is probably largely a reversion to the mean after the unusual neck-and-neck Ashcroft poll last week. Tabs are here.
The twice-weekly Populus poll meanwhile has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%. Tabs are here.
Finally the daily YouGov poll for the Sun tonight has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%.
A couple of tight polls today. The weekly telephone poll by Lord Ascroft has topline figures for CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% (tabs here). Meanwhile the twice-weekly online poll by Populus this morning had figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 3% (tabs are here)
Along with the Ipsos MORI poll last week showing the Conservatives just ahead one might be forgiven for thinking that adds up to a narrowing of the polls. I’d be a bit cautious – the YouGov daily tracker had a three point lead at the weekend and a couple of sixes last week, the Opinium poll on Sunday had an eight point Labour lead. I think we’re probably just seeing a couple of low polls randomly turn up at the same time… though of course, time will tell.
This week will obviously be dominated by Scottish polling – we have Opinium’s first Scottish referendum poll tonight, and possibly a Panelbase poll, and then final call polls from at least YouGov, MORI, Opinium and Survation next week. In the meantime though a quick detour to update the latest GB voting intention polls; we had three of them on Friday:
Populus – CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13% (tabs)
Ipsos MORI – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15% (tabs)
YouGov – CON 31%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16% (tabs)
After their summer break Lord Ashcroft’s weekly GB poll start up again today with topline figures of CON 28%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. Tabs are here.
Meanwhile this morning’s twice weekly Populus poll has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Tabs are here.
Later on tonight there is also a TNS Scottish poll due to be published, so we shall see if the sharp narrowing in YouGov’s recent polling is echoed or not.
Scotland is likely to be the focus of polling for the next fortnight, but a brief update on the latest GB voting intention polls. Populus this morning has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 4% (full tables are here). Meanwhile today’s edition of the daily YouGov poll has toplines of CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16% (full tables here).