Today we have our three regular Monday polls and all three are showing Labour and the Conservatives within a point of each other:
Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll has topline figures of CON 29%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 7% (tabs here).
The twice weekly Populus poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5%. This is the lowest that any poll has shown UKIP for a while, though Populus do tend to give them some of their lowest scores anyway (tabs here).
Finally YouGov for the Sun have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%. The eight point score for the Greens is the highest that YouGov have shown to date, and only the second time they’ve put them ahead of the Liberal Democrats.
Tonight we will have new polls due from ComRes in the Indy on Sunday/Sunday Mirror and YouGov in the Sunday Times. In the meantime though, a quite update on the other polls this week.
Thursday’s YouGov poll had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%; Friday’s poll had figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%. In other words, YouGov’s figures continue to show normal random variation around an underlying average of an Labour lead of one point or so.
Populus’s Friday poll had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. The two point Labour lead is bang in line with Populus’s polls over the last month.
Polls over the last few months have got much tighter, and now seem to be averaging at a Labour lead of around a single point, compared to around six points at the start of the year. The eye catching ICM and MORI polls earlier in the week made some think this was a result of last weekend’s stories around Ed Miliband’s leadership but looking at this week’s polling as a whole that really doesn’t seem to be the case. The polls remain very, very tight… but there isn’t any great change from a week ago.
Monday tends to be the day we have the most polls (as telephone polls are usually done over the weekend) and today is no different, with polls from ICM, Ashcroft and Populus.
The monthly ICM/Guardian poll has topline figures of CON 31%(nc), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 14%(nc), GRN 6%(+2). Labour are down a bit on their recent results, their lead back to one point (ICM had been showing Labour and Conservative roughly equal in the summer, but their Autumn polls were showing larger leads).
The weekly Ashcroft poll has topline figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 16%(nc), GRN 7%(+1). Having got a repuation for somewhat volatile figures, today’s are rock solid. Voting intentions are almost wholly unchanged since a week ago (tabs are here)
The twice weekly Populus poll has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%. A two point Labour lead is wholly in line with Populus’s polls last week and in late October (tabs are here.)
We still have the daily YouGov/Sun poll to come, but so it doesn’t look as the fuss over Miliband’s leadership is having any significant effect. Populus and Ashcroft show no real change and while ICM show a small drop for Labour, in the context of other polls showing no movement it’s nothing that can’t be normal sample variation.
Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll today has topline figures of CON 30%(-1), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 10%(+3), UKIP 16%(-2), GRN 6%(+1). The changes since last week are within the normal margin of error and the overall picture is inline with the broader picture of the Conservatives and Labour having extremely similar levels of support. Populus’s twice-weekly poll meanwhile had topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13% – Labour and the Conservatives again very close, but both higher than in Ashcroft’s polling.
The Ashcroft poll has, of course, got rather more attention because of the 29% for Labour. This is the first time since June 2010 that any poll has shown them below 30% – the level of support they got in Great Britain at the 2010 general election. This is largely due to house effects, and polls in general are not showing Labour this low. Ashcroft’s polls tend to show the highest level of support for those parties outside the traditional big three, on average around 30% over the last few months, compared to 27% for MORI, 22% for ICM and 23% for YouGov. The reasons for Ashcroft’s higher “other” scores are unclear, but the knock on effect is lower support for Con and Lab. Populus on the other hand tend to show some of the lowest levels of support for parties outside the traditional big three, probably due to them weighting by current party identification. Populus’s average over the last few months is 21% – hence the contrast between the two polls today: different absolute levels of Con and Lab support, but a similar sort of position relatively to each other.
We’ve had a busy day of voting intention polls today, four polls from Populus, Ashcroft, YouGov and ComRes, and three of them showing the same lead. Topline figures are:
Ashcroft: CON 31%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 5% (tabs)
Populus: CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 3% (tabs)
YouGov/Sun: CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%
ComRes/Indy: CON 30%(+1), LAB 30%(-5), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 19%(+4), GRN 4%(nc) (tabs)
Leaving aside the tendency of Populus to show higher support for the Conservatives and Labour and lower support for others, the picture is pretty consistent. Three polls (as well as YouGov and Opinion polls at the weekend) are showing the same story – Labour and Conservative equal, and UKIP still polling very strongly. Whether there is any link there is a different matter – perhaps UKIP’s ongoing rise has attracted people who were previously saying they’d vote Labour (though not necessarily people who voted Labour in 2010) who see UKIP as a better anti-government vote, but there is always churn beneath the topline figures and things may very well be more complicated than a straight transfer between the two.