This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. The Labour lead of nine points is higher than YouGov have shown of late, but as ever, don’t get too excited about individual polls apparently showing movement, more often than not they’ll turn out to just be normal sample variation. Full tabs are here.
YouGov also had some initial Ukraine questions. The British public are far more sympathetic to Ukraine (53%) than Russia (3%). By 50% to 33% they think the situation in Ukraine is something that should concern Britain and the West, not just a matter for Russia & Ukraine. Tabs here.
Meanwhile yesterday’s Populus poll had figures of CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%. Their full tables are here. Populus have also started a deal with the FT to provide a big monthly poll of about 14000 people. I assume this the aggregated data from all their twice-weekly polls each month, rather than new and distinct data, but it does provide bigger cross-breaks to look at. The first batch of aggregated Populus/FT data is here.
We are still overdue the ComRes/Indy monthly telephone poll. This morning’s Indy has a couple of findings from the poll, but not the voting intention figures. However, the tabs on the ComRes website do have voting intention as a crossbreak, so I think we can expect tonight’s poll to show something in the region of Conservative 29%, Labour 37%, Lib Dem 10%, UKIP 11%. We shall presumably see tonight. IF that is the case, it will be a bit of a reversion to the mean after a bit of an outlier last month that showed only a one point Labour lead, but also shows a lower level of Conservative support than ComRes have shown for sometime. Essentially it looks like a odd poll last month and a bit of an usual poll this month have combined to produce a big jump in Labour’s lead that is not reflected in the wider trend of opinion polling… but we shall see how the Indy report it ;)
Today’s twice weekly Populus poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs are here.
Meanwhile this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, full tabs here. Given it’s the last day of the month we can look at YouGov’s averages for the whole of February, which gives us figures of CON 33.2%(33.0% in Jan), LAB 38.9%(38.7% in Jan), LDEM 9.3%(9.2% in Jan), UKIP 11.8%(12.5% in Jan), so no real movement month-on-month.
This morning’s YouGov/Sun daily polling results are here. Topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. Two noteworthy things in the regular trackers – one, the gap between the people blaming the government for the cuts (29%) and the people blaming Labour (33%) is the lowest YouGov have had so far. Two, people appear to be getting less worried, the 63% of people who say they worry about having enough money to live on is the lowest they’ve shown since the election, so is the 53% who worry about losing their job or having difficulty finding work. Both are presumably a sign of economic optimism continuing to creep slowly upwards.
Meanwhile the twice-weekly Populus poll yesterday had figures of CON 32%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%. Full tabs are here.
This morning’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%. At the start of the week YouGov produced an interesting string of seven point Labour leads, but with a four point lead yesterday and a five point lead today it looks as it’s business as usual. Full tabs are here.
Meanwhile the twice weekly poll from Populus has figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs for those are here.
Today’s Populus and YouGov polls both have six point leads for Labour. Populus’s topline figures in their twice weekly poll are CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14% (tabs are here). The daily YouGov poll for the Sun this morning has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12% (tabs are here.)
As you’ll probably know, the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election was also last night, and was a comfortable Labour hold. This means today will be full of people saying what it *means* and trying to draw some wider conclusions based upon it. I’ll only repeat my normal warning about not reading too much into by-elections. They are extremely unusual beasts – an election in just one single seat that won’t be representative of the whole country, intensely fought but often with low turnout, and where who wins does not make any difference to who the government is the next day. Essentially, if a by-election performs in line with the national polls it doesn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know, if it performs in some way different to the polls it’s probably because of the unusual circumstances implicit in a by-election.
That doesn’t mean they don’t have a big impact on politics of course. If UKIP had done much better it would have given them a big publicity boost and probably set off a narrative about them threatening Labour seats… but they didn’t.