I think we have just the three regular polls this Monday – Populus, Ashcroft and YouGov. ComRes this afternoon announced that their voting intention polls for the Daily Mail will be weekly for the rest of the campaign, but the first of those won’t be until later in the week. March’s Survation/Mirror poll is also due sometime this week, but I don’t know when.
- Populus this morning had topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% (tabs).
- Ashcroft meanwhile has figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% (tabs).
I’ll update with the YouGov poll later, but with seven polls conducted since the budget I think we can conclude it’s had no effect.
The rest of the the YouGov budget polling is now up on their website here. It suggests a broadly positive reaction to the budget and a significant jump in Osborne’s own ratings. Overall 42% think the budget was fair, 27% unfair. Most people think it will make little difference to the country or to their own finances, but of those who do there more think it will have a positive impact than a negative one. 40% of people think Osborne is doing a good job as Chancellor (up 6 from before the budget) and his lead over Ed Balls on who would make the best Chancellor is up to 20 points.
Just because something is approved of though, it doesn’t necessarily mean it has any effect on voting intention. The second of this week’s Populus polls, also conducted entirely after the budget, has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 17%, GRN 5%. No sign of a budget bounce there – but I’ll repeat the same caveats I made after the YouGov poll last night. We could just be seeing random variation, and news events don’t have an instant effect anyway – these two polls were after the budget, but many responses would have been before the media reaction (just because something has already happened, doesn’t mean the respondent already knows about it). Wait and see if the broader average moves in the week ahead.
The usual glut of polls for a Monday. Today we have the weekly Ashcroft poll, the twice weekly Populus poll, the monthly ICM poll and – later on – the daily YouGov.
- Ashcroft’s weekly poll has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 29%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%. The Conservatives remain ahead, but not by as much as in the last two Ashcroft polls (full details here)
- ICM show a similar picture (though, as usual with these two pollsters, there are higher shares for Con and Lab from ICM than from Ashcroft): a Tory lead, but a smaller lead than the unusually large one they recorded last month. Topline voting intention figures with changes from a month ago are CON 36%(nc), LAB 35%(+3), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 9%(nc), GRN 4%(-3).
- The movement in Populus is in the other direction – their recent polls have been showing a Labour lead, today’s topline figures are neck and neck: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% (full details here)
So, two Tory leads and a dead heat today (so far), two Labour leads and a dead heat yesterday. Realistically I can see nothing that gives me any confidence that either party is sneaking ahead, all suggests they are still neck and neck.
Also today we had a new projection out – the Polling Observatory team’s model here, which unlike the other models I report in my Friday round up is currently projecting Labour to have more seats than the Tories (there’s a full explanation of the method through the link – but put crudely the difference between their model and Steve Fisher’s is that Steve assumes the polls will move slightly back towards the 2010 result (meaning the Tories go up, Labour go down), while the Polling Observatory assume the polls will move slightly back towards their long term average (meaning both the Tories AND Labour go up). They’ll be updating fortnightly, so I’ll add them to the Friday round ups.
I will hopefully be doing my usual weekly round up later on tonight, this is just a swift update on Friday’s polls (after all, it’s very unfair if they never get their own post!)
The daily YouGov/Sun poll this morning has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6% (tabs). Of the four YouGov polls so far this week there have been three Tory leads, one Labour one.
There was also a YouGov Scottish poll. Full results of that are here. I may write some more about that in the weekly round up, but for now I’ll just say that the SNP continue to show a strong lead, with topline Westminster voting intentions of CON 18%, LAB 27%, LDEM 4%, SNP 46%, GRN 3%. Note that there is a methodology change in this poll, with the sample additionally weighted to match how people voted in the Independence referendum.
The twice-weekly Populus poll has figures of CON 29%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6% (tabs). After a few weeks when it’s looked as if there might be a slight squeeze on UKIP support the 18% score is actually the highest Populus have recorded for them, though all the usual caveats apply about it just being one poll and probably a blip unless other polls show the same. Note that the fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday so partly pre-dated Nigel Farage’s comments on discrimination laws.
We have three polls today, the daily YouGov poll, the weekly Ashcroft poll and the twice-weekly Populus poll. Topline figures are:
Populus – CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6% (tabs)
Ashcroft – CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8% (tabs)
YouGov – CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
Lord Ashcroft’s poll repeats the Tory lead it showed a week ago, YouGov produce a four point Tory lead, their largest since January 2012. Populus continue to show a one point Labour lead.
All the usual caveats apply, we need to be careful not to overreact to polls that could just be a couple of outliers in the same direction – that said, in YouGov’s daily poll we’ve reached the point that Conservative leads are a little more common than Labour ones. Of the last ten YouGov polls there have been four Tory leads and two Labour ones. I don’t think we can confidently say the Tories are ahead… but I’m certainly no longer confident in saying that the underlying average is a small Labour lead either. I think we can fairly say that the Conservatives don’t seem to have suffered any short term damage from the debate debate last week.